September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Rain is a little farther north on Sunday on the 00Z ECMWF.    

 

Looks like a nice weekend... for the Seattle area it shows dry and warm tomorrow then some showers overnight and then dry and warm again on Sunday in the warm sector ahead of the low offshore.  

 

Feels like we've been stuck in the warm sector these past 6 months.

[MossMan]

I thought you did that months ago??

Jetski is out, but I left the boat in. Was hoping to enjoy a day or two more on the lake before winter sets in but I don’t think that is going to happen.

[MossMan]

I thought you did that months ago??

When do you think it will start raining over my head? Was hoping to mow tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

When do you think it will start raining over my head? Was hoping to mow tomorrow.

Tomorrow during the day is all good for us. Some showers coming up from the south in the evening.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely been a trend today towards a troughy period in the Wed-Fri period which once looked ridgy... although the 00Z ECMWF does show that period being pretty dry.   Much of the heavier rain is farther south... in southern Oregon.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Definitely been a trend today towards a troughy period in the Wed-Fri period which once looked ridgy... although the 00Z ECMWF does show that period being pretty dry. Much of the heavier rain is farther south... in southern Oregon.

 

That would be welcome.

[luminen]

I hope November is warm. That means it will be wet. That combo means good things in December/January. I'm very optimistic for greatness this winter. Of course, that really sets me up for a huge disappointment... 

[Tyler Mode]

FWIW:  https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/

[ShawniganLake]

EPS generally keeps the ridge offshore the next couple weeks.

 

 

[Farmboy]

The long range GFS wants to jump straight to December:

 

 

 

 

I don't see how that's possible considering that The Weather Channel gave us their word that October and November would be warm for the west...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS sends some very cold air into the N. Plains. 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sky this morning as instability aloft increases. Must be some offshore flow as well as its already 65 in North Bend and 64 here.

 

[TT-SEA]

Make that 68 in the valley before 9 a.m.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cloudy this morning. 53F.

[TT-SEA]

Cloudy this morning. 53F.

70 here now... perfect set up out here today to maximize warmth. A rare nice Saturday!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

70 here now... perfect set up out here today to maximize warmth. A rare nice Saturday!

Usually this is reversed. Enjoy!!

[El_Nina]

No... you have it all wrong!  The fun snow season just begins on the Sunday before Thanksgiving... and peaks on 12/24 and 12/25.    That has worked wonderfully the last 3 years in a row here.   

 

The fun season officially ends on MLK Day and then we enter the snow is OK season through Valentines Day.    Then finally the snow is just annoying season begins.    This did not work out well at all this past spring!

 

I agree that snow isn't as special when Christmas is over. It adds to the holiday cheer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is pretty ridgy!

[ShawniganLake]

12z is pretty ridgy!

Ensemble is not!

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty sky this morning as instability aloft increases. Must be some offshore flow as well as its already 65 in North Bend and 64 here.

 

The 5am temperatures in the Fraser Valley were a couple degrees higher than their average highs this time of year. Going to be evening lows, however.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly and cloudy down here today. 58 degrees at the moment.

[Phil]

[Phil]

The next 6 weeks will tell us a lot about the nature of the low frequency progression, as the seasonal transition from monsoonal trough to Siberian High occurs over the Eurasian continent.

 

The EHEM/Indo-Pacific domain does appear to be going dormant for now.

[ShawniganLake]

Would be quite the Arctic Blast and snowstorm 2 months from now. I can't believe we are seeing these type of runs in September. I've never seen the models show runs like these this early ever.

 

It would be even more unbelievable if it actually verified.

 

I’m not sure how long you’ve actually been following the weather but I’m pretty sure 2008 had some pretty significant late summer and early fall troughs

[TT-SEA]

Chilly and cloudy down here today. 58 degrees at the moment.

73 and sunny with a little east wind here.

[Phil]

The AP-index is going to finish ~ 8.5 for the month of September. That’s a bit on the high side for solar minimum.

 

I really want to see it drop below 5 this winter. If it remains elevated, the odds of a weak SC25 will decline substantially. Recall it dropped to 3 during 2009.

[Blizzard777]

Overcast and around the 60 mark down here in Tigard. Heading out to enjoy ”Wild Kratts live” show in Portland with Grandson. Should be a good time

[TT-SEA]

My son got called into work this morning at the pool at the club at the Snoqualmie Ridge golf course. They had it under-staffed today given the weather. He runs food and drinks out from the restaurant.

 

I think the pool closes next week and he moves the restaurant inside.

[BLI snowman]

Nice day.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Another warm night here, very similar to the night before. The temperature dropped to 57F around 1:30am then jumped to 63F by 3am as the outflow winds kicked in and stayed thereabouts the rest of the night. Currently getting moderate N/NE outflow winds, it always feels a bit strange getting these outside winter/late fall.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is definitely not ridgy... but it is basically dry from day 4 onward except along the coast.

[Kayla]

That is one broad and deep western trough on the 12z ECMWF. Been a while since we've seen one of those.

 

It also shows it snowing almost non stop next Saturday-Tuesday here. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

12Z ECMWF is definitely not ridgy... but it is basically dry from day 4 onward except along the coast.

 

Yuck, it's been awhile since we've had a good October washout.

[TT-SEA]

Yuck, it's been awhile since we've had a good October washout.

 

 

Low 60s and sunshine is definitely disgusting early October weather.    Probably the type of weather most people dread in the fall... so gross.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Clouds breaking up. Only partly cloudy now.

[TT-SEA]

That is one broad and deep western trough on the 12z ECMWF. Been a while since we've seen one of those.

 

It also shows it snowing almost non stop next Saturday-Tuesday here. 

 

 

12Z EPS agrees and keeps the trough centered in that position basically through day 15.

[Deweydog]

My son got called into work this morning at the pool at the club at the Snoqualmie Ridge golf course. They had it under-staffed today given the weather. He runs food and drinks out from the restaurant.

 

I think the pool closes next week and he moves the restaurant inside.

Fascinating.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like some showers moving up from the south.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like some showers moving up from the south.

Well advertised by the ECMWF all week. Surface map superiorty.