September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Nice afternoon for mowing the lawn... clouds have been forming all day but fade quickly and its been mostly sunny.

 

[BLI snowman]

Well advertised by the ECMWF all week. Surface map superiorty.

Another ruined weekend here

[TT-SEA]

Another ruined weekend here

Sad.

 

Been just a couple nice weekend days up here this month.

[weatherfan2012]

The AP-index is going to finish ~ 8.5 for the month of September. That’s a bit on the high side for solar minimum.

I really want to see it drop below 5 this winter. If it remains elevated, the odds of a weak SC25 will decline substantially. Recall it dropped to 3 during 2009.

if we have a more active sc25 then all of the preditions of a very low solar minimum would be off and that would mean it would be back to the books again lol.but it would tell more then anything as humans we want to think we know what really going on in climate and the sun when in fact we know less then we would really like to amint which is a human nature.interesting times for sure.

[Deweydog]

Raindrops on roses in Salmon Creek!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah couple sprinkles and 62. Nice lazy Saturday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah couple sprinkles and 62. Nice lazy Saturday.

 

Upslope action?

[TT-SEA]

Upslope action?

Doubt it... band west of Portland is basically moving from east to west.

 

Flow is from the ESE... the opposite of what would give Andrew upslope enhancement.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Low 60s and sunshine is definitely disgusting early October weather.    Probably the type of weather most people dread in the fall... so gross.  

 

I prefer October weather in October and July weather in July.

[TT-SEA]

I prefer October weather in October and July weather in July.

Yeah... and low 60s with some sun is very Octoberish weather in early October.

 

And it seems like you usually like October weather in July as well.

[High Desert Mat!]

Tim>above the fray.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim is right. Not upslope today...

[High Desert Mat!]

Saw my first flakes today.

 

I need to stay out of the bar I guess

[High Desert Mat!]

It is sprinkling outside right now. Heard a rumble of thunder and am very excited. I haven't seen a good shower since June 21st and that was even suspect. I live in one of the driest parts of the country and need some rain. Hopefully it comes soon.

[MossMan]

Lovely morning at the lake. My dog told me it’s not time to take the boat out of the water just yet. Came home late morning and spent the day working in the yard. Had 5 minutes of sprinkles around noon. Perfect yard day! Currently 65.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only hit 63 today. Looks like most valley locations stayed in the 60s. 

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Valley was the warm spot on the west side today... with clouds to the north and south and sunshine with offshore flow all day here. Mid-70s for highs out here... down to 63 and cloudy now.

[Geos]

Really coming down here now. Was a decent day though.

[TT-SEA]

Really coming down here now. Was a decent day though.

 

 

I just noticed that little cell up there on the radar.   Totally dry at the Huskies game right now across the lake (absolutely crushing #20 BYU).

[TT-SEA]

Now raining at little at Husky stadium.  Game is basically over.

[Tyler Mode]

87 yesterday, and 63 today.  The forecast was 75 (KPTV) today, so a pretty big bust.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Now raining at little at Husky stadium.  Game is basically over.

 

My co-worker went to BYU, he will be disappointed in the outcome, but the Wisconsin win made the season already for him.

[Phil]

Very stagnant pattern. D1-5, D6-10, D11-15.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

#2014redux

 

Knot

[Jesse]

Nice to see the reversal work out today. PDX scored their coolest high of the season to date.

[weatherfan2012]

Very stagnant pattern. D1-5, D6-10, D11-15.

 

Dave Tolleris on twitter was comparing this summer and fall to 2009-2010     are you kidding me first of all that was a moderate to strong not a weak event like he proclaimed El nino this year we are only slowly building a El nino not even close to that analog.And the NAO was all ready at exstream negative mode levels while we are still strongly positive.Now 2019-2020 could well be a different story all togeather if we get a stronger Nino Solar Min combination.

[Jesse]

Very stagnant pattern. D1-5, D6-10, D11-15.

 

You might have missed the irony there Phil. 2014 was our warmest October on record. That shows a cold pattern for the west.

[Phil]

Dave Tolleris on twitter was comparing this summer and fall to 2009-2010 are you kidding me first of all that was a moderate to strong not a weak event like he proclaimed El nino this year we are only slowly building a El nino not even close to that analog.And the NAO was all ready at exstream negative mode levels while we are still strongly positive.Now 2019-2020 could well be a different story all togeather if we get a stronger Nino Solar Min combination.

Yeah, 2009-10 is a terrible analog.

 

Much colder Indo-Pacific this year.

[Phil]

You might have missed the irony there Phil. 2014 was our warmest October on record. That shows a cold pattern for the west.

Oh, I knew you were being sarcastic. The pattern over North America is definitely different right now, despite the larger scale players being highly analogous to 2014/15 for the most part.

[Phil]

There was more IO forcing in 2014/15, which kept you guys warm during the autumn. This year has a much colder Indo-Pacific, which favors WHEM forcing and a colder West during the autumn.

 

But come mid-winter, this regime of tropical convection would promote the exact opposite pattern over North America (+PNA/western ridge). Unless the forcing can slide westward enough over time to maintain the EPO pattern as wavelengths elongate seasonally.

[Timmy Supercell]

Getting some rain here! In many places of the Medford CWA the first measurable precipitation since July 15th. 

[MossMan]

Rain. 58.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

UW rolled vs BYU, Cougs had a hard-fought win in Pullman over Utah, Ducks had a good defensive performance in Berkeley and bounced back with a win over Cal.

 

...And then there's the poor Beavers. The folks in Corvallis are a tortured bunch in some ways, haven't had a snow event since early March, 2017 (longest drought in the PNW) and their revenue sports are in the crapper. But hey, they have a fantastic baseball team.

[Geos]

Very stagnant pattern. D1-5, D6-10, D11-15.

That's a persistent pattern. Looks like the cold anomaly really digs itself into the West and expands in the last frame.

[Jesse]

Very nice... hope the 12Z GFS is right and not wandering aimlessly.

 

Looks like it was wandering aimlessly.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it was wandering aimlessly.

 

Totally wandering.

 

Likely due to the models struggling with all of the tropical activity. So it goes in the fall.

[Jesse]

Totally wandering.

 

Likely due to the models struggling with all of the tropical activity. So it goes in the fall.

The problem with those runs seemed to be cutting off the top of the offshore ridge, floating the top off toward the pole, and then being way too progressive with what was left of the base.

 

As it stands it looks like the offshore ridge will hold together better. At least this coming week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some really cold ensemble members in about a week and a half. 

[Jesse]

Oh, I knew you were being sarcastic. The pattern over North America is definitely different right now, despite the larger scale players being highly analogous to 2014/15 for the most part.

 

Are you talking mostly in terms of ENSO? Seems like solar is a lot different this time around, for whatever that is worth. Blob/raging +PDO is gone too.

[Jesse]

Some really cold ensemble members in about a week and a half. 

 

This is one of the phrases on my magic 8 ball.