TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 This is one of the phrases on my magic 8 ball.Along with, "No, it's not gonorrhea this time" 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Gorgeous afternoon in the NW side of Mt. Adams yesterday. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Weather was cool and sunny up there through the first half of the day. By later on the mountain became socked in, and there were even some showers as we drove home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Raining in Springfield!! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Are you talking mostly in terms of ENSO? Seems like solar is a lot different this time around, for whatever that is worth. Blob/raging +PDO is gone too.Should I fed blob? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Should I fed blob? Yes. Lucky for you he eats chemtrails! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 GFS on tropical tidbits site is stuck at hour 132, anyone else seeing this? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 GFS on tropical tidbits site is stuck at hour 132, anyone else seeing this?yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Wet morning. Almost 1/2” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 12z GFS long range is a thing of beauty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 12z GFS long range is a thing of beauty.And dry! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 12z GFS long range is a thing of beauty. The first half of October is looking good at this point. Looks like we have a great shot at the coveted hot July / cold October combo this year. Combine that with 8-9 winter, very low (and still declining solar), and diminishing likelihood of an El Nino and we have a pretty nice recipe for this winter. I have felt for a while now we would see a noteworthy cold shot during the autumn and the models have certainly been hinting at it. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 And dry!Raw output shows over 2.5” down here from hour 192 to the end of the run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Raw output shows over 2.5” down here from hour 192 to the end of the run.I was looking on the NCEP site on my phone. Maybe the wrong run. Have to look again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 The first half of October is looking good at this point. Looks like we have a great shot at the coveted hot July / cold October combo this year. Combine that with 8-9 winter, very low (and still declining solar), and diminishing likelihood of an El Nino and we have a pretty nice recipe for this winter. I have felt for a while now we would see a noteworthy cold shot during the autumn and the models have certainly been hinting at it.Early to call for a cold October, but I’m definitely liking the fact that the first week is looking cool. We’ll see where it goes from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Raw output shows over 2.5” down here from hour 192 to the end of the run.I think you have the wrong run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 I think you have the wrong run.I think you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 I think you do.I just ran each 12 hour precip frame on 12Z run on NCEP site from 168 hours to end of run and there is barely any precip. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 I just ran each 12 hour precip frame on 12Z run on NCEP site from 168 hours to end of run and there is barely any precip.Sounds like yesterday’s 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Sounds like yesterday’s 12z.Ahhh... will check that. Maybe not updating at all on NCEP site. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Ahhh... will check that. Maybe not updating at all on NCEP site.The precip maps would suggest less than what the raw output is spitting out, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Looks like some light to moderate showers moving up from the south into the Portland metro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 The precip maps would suggest less than what the raw output is spitting out, though.Shows 9-30 12Z run... and 180 hours is shown as next Sunday afternoon so that is right. Precip maps show almost no precip at all and nothing really close until the very end and that is still mostly in BC. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 I am not even looking on TT. It was not updating. I am on NCEP site which has updated for the entire 12Z run. Its not showing anything close to that kind of rain.Thank God. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Thank God.Pretty much no rain in the mid and long range period. Even a little ridgy later on. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Pretty much no rain in the mid and long range period. Even a little ridgy later on. I bet you were pretty worried for a minute there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Jesse is looking at output from the 06z. 12z is much drier and more continental, probably a freeze or two for many areas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Jesse is looking at output from the 06z. 12z is much drier and more continental, probably a freeze or two for many areas.Weird that the output times updated but the model info didn’t. Now I feel silly wasting all this pepto bismol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 I bet you were pretty worried for a minute there.No. Bet you are suicidal now! You are so depressed now! Ha ha ha!!! Stupid BS. Just stop with the personal crap. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 No. Bet you are suicidal now! You are so depressed now! Ha ha ha!!! Stupid BS. Just stop with the personal crap.Yikes! This is about 20x more personal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 East wind at PDX! Kind of an interesting pattern we are in today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Yikes!Yeah... yikes. Having a discussion about model data and you make it personal. I will just start throwing it back at you. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Yikes! This is about 20x more personal. Poor Jesse. I was being extreme to make a point. Stop the personal BS. Its stupid. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Yeah... yikes. Having a discussion about model data and you make it personal. I will just start throwing it back at you.We all give each other crap from time to time. What I said was pretty dang mild. Lighten up. Suicide comment was a little out there though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 We all give each other crap from time to time. What I said was pretty dang mild. Lighten up. Suicide comment was a little out there though.Yeah... making a point. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 BF22AF7A-8249-40DD-966C-021DD1583694.pngSometimes that site updates the time stamp before it has fully updated the data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Sometimes that site updates the time stamp before it has fully updated the data. Yeah, I have seen it do that with the whole run, and you can usually tell because the times don't match the high and low temperatures. I haven't seen it do that with just the last half of the run before, though. Threw me off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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