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October 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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A couple freezes are popping up in our late week to weekend forecast.  I understand a lot of us are looking forward to this, but I still have seven hummingbirds and a yard full of tender plants.  I'm going to have to cover plants, which is always a pain.

Not only that, but our seasons first Lake Effect event early next week???  Depending on how much snow falls in S Canada this week, that shot of colder air late this weekend could have some punch, esp those farther north of here.

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Foggy currently and wet conditions w temps fairly mild, in the 60s and approaching near 80 or better. Big cooldown coming by weeks end. Temps may not get outta the 40s for highs.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Micheal could approach CAT1 or 2 status as it makes landfall somewhere around the Panhandle of FL. Looks like heavy rain threat further north towards the Carolinas, where no rain is needed and up the EC.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is a major bust for us. We've had nothing but light rain the past couple days. We'll be lucky to get 2" when all is said and done Wednesday.

Yeah so far this system has been kind of a dud for our area... the heaviest rain from this system is still yet to come though - this afternoon through tomorrow morning is supposed to be the worst of it, so I am not giving up quite yet.

 

NWS still saying 3-4 inches of rain likely with isolated 6 inch amounts still on the table.

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Models have been struggling with the pattern once the big midweek storm pulls out, which is causing Sergio's remnants to spray all over the place from run to run.  The 12z euro is back to showing significant digging of a trough in the west, which pulls Sergio right up across the midwest.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models have been struggling with the pattern once the big midweek storm pulls out, which is causing Sergio's remnants to spray all over the place from run to run.  The 12z euro is back to showing significant digging of a trough in the west, which pulls Sergio right up across the midwest.

Another culprit is the big miss in the stout NE PAC ridge which the models are correcting to...just look at the recent 3 runs off the Euro and it tells the story.  Those waters are torching and I believe the models are having trouble.  Not only in this region, but the SE ridge flexes its muscle as well.

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Frost is looking likely by early next week as a potent front will reinforce the cold air. Lows expected by Monday morning to be near 32F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just over an inch of rain in my backyard so far from this storm system.

 

We definitely aren’t going to see the high totals that were predicted before this system by the models. Missed out on the storms in Omaha as well, as everything was south and east of here.

 

Still more rain to come... NWS still showing 1-3 inches of additional rain between now and Wednesday. My guess is we will be on the lower end of that - however still some decent October rains.

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Feels like summer outside. Just finished my barbecue and here we are approaching mid October. Temp at 70F at this hour.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Surprisingly, Micheal can end up as a CAT3 and hitting the Panhandle of FL w that strength. Man, this thing came outta nowhere.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I heard that the MJO only influences the LRC, but there is evidence it has a 30-60 day cycle as well.

 

I was thinking less about a direct influence connection, and more along the lines of atmospheric mechanics being in sync ;)

 

Another culprit is the big miss in the stout NE PAC ridge which the models are correcting to...just look at the recent 3 runs off the Euro and it tells the story.  Those waters are torching and I believe the models are having trouble.  Not only in this region, but the SE ridge flexes its muscle as well.

 

:huh:  That's quite the change in (3) runs. New England trough vanishes into a ridge. That's gotta be a gut punch. This is reminding me of 13-14 when models were always playing catch-up with the strong -EPO. Every warm-up that was flashed vanished

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Surprisingly, Micheal can end up as a CAT3 and hitting the Panhandle of FL w that strength. Man, this thing came outta nowhere.

Yeah Michael really did come out of nowhere. Yesterday morning forming into a Tropical Storm and perhaps a major hurricane off the Florida panhandle tomorrow evening before making landfall.

 

Hoping everyone in the Hurricane Warning zone heeds the evacuation orders... my wife and I visited PCB in April for our anniversary and we absolutely loved the area with its white sand beaches and the warmth of the people from there. Would hate to see them take a direct hit from a Cat 3 or higher storm, however it’s looking like it will be a close call.

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Feels like summer outside. Just finished my barbecue and here we are approaching mid October. Temp at 70F at this hour.

 

I swear I've put my flip-flops and summer shirts away 3 times thinking autumn's here, won't need these anymore just to pull them out again.. :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Surprisingly, Micheal can end up as a CAT3 and hitting the Panhandle of FL w that strength. Man, this thing came outta nowhere.

 

Bastardi saying this could pull a Harvey and go to Cat 4 at landfall. Very favorable environment for rapid intensification as it approaches land, opposite of Florence.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Bastardi saying this could pull a Harvey and go to Cat 4 at landfall. Very favorable environment for rapid intensification as it approaches land, opposite of Florence.

Residents there should evacuate ASAP.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I swear I've put my flip-flops and summer shirts away 3 times thinking autumn's here, won't need these anymore just to pull them out again.. :rolleyes:

:lol: :lol:

 

 

I usually wait till 1st week of November! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah Michael really did come out of nowhere. Yesterday morning forming into a Tropical Storm and perhaps a major hurricane off the Florida panhandle tomorrow evening before making landfall.

 

Hoping everyone in the Hurricane Warning zone heeds the evacuation orders... my wife and I visited PCB in April for our anniversary and we absolutely loved the area with its white sand beaches and the warmth of the people from there. Would hate to see them take a direct hit from a Cat 3 or higher storm, however it’s looking like it will be a close call.

Unfortunately, it will get ugly there.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Anxious for the front to get here. Tomorrow is very likely the last day that will resemble this past summer's pattern here and really this crazy tropical warm nonsense that has been going on since 2016. No 70s+ after tomorrow for the foreseeable future and looks like cool and dry will be the rule after. Contentment is a good word for today, and "Glad that is over" is probably the understatement of the day for me.

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Up to 1/2” of snow in the grid for tomorrow night as the cold air hits the backside of the precip.

Awesome man!  I'm stoked to hear someone on our board will have flakes flying and "sticking".  What is the norm for the first measurable snow fall for MSP?

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As the sun begins to rise, it feels like a summer morning around here.  ORD may actually touch the record high of 86F today...hey, lets go for it!  I've been battling a sore throat and not liking the timing during this warm stretch.  Anyhow, what a pattern that is evolving.  The flip into cold is going to pack a punch later this weekend into the following week.  A lot of us will have endured our First Freeze's from the looks of it and if the Euro is right, possibly some snow down in KS/N MO/S IA Sunday from Sergio's remnants?  Boy, the look on the Euro has me intrigued and fits the idea that this system would take a more southerly route based on my ideas that I outlined last week.  Let's see if this system can spin up into another TX Panhandle hook up towards the GL's???

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Impressive signal from both the GEFS/EPS that we will lock into a much colder pattern as the models are trending bolder with the cold as rotating lobes of cold shots may persist through the end of the month.  This pattern looks amped as the NW NAMER ridges fires up, while a deep trough develops across the eastern part of the continent!  #Winteriscoming

 

 

Flashbacks of modeling behavior is pretty evident as one of the main drivers during the '13-'14 winter are coming into play...the EPO...the "misses" in the NE PAC/NW NAMER are vivid.  

 

 

Edit: The latest Euro weeklies are a bit chilly my friends...

 

 

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I enjoy my German Beers and Brats, but I also tend to enjoy seeing this model "sniff" out the medium range pattern. Looks very similar to the Euro.  Another wintry system on tap for late this weekend???  This new LRC pattern is a beauty...might be our 1st storm thread???  Let's see how this system develops.  

 

icon_asnow_us_61.png

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Awesome man! I'm stoked to hear someone on our board will have flakes flying and "sticking". What is the norm for the first measurable snow fall for MSP?

Average date of first flakes is Oct 14. Average date of first measurable snowfalll is not until Nov 2. So if this actually happens tomorrow night it would be pretty dang early. The grid shows up to 0.5” of snow, but I just read the morning disco and MPX isn’t expecting any accumulations. We’ll see. Either way, we’re trending in the right direction.

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As the sun begins to rise, it feels like a summer morning around here.  ORD may actually touch the record high of 86F today...hey, lets go for it!  I've been battling a sore throat and not liking the timing during this warm stretch.  Anyhow, what a pattern that is evolving.  The flip into cold is going to pack a punch later this weekend into the following week.  A lot of us will have endured our First Freeze's from the looks of it and if the Euro is right, possibly some snow down in KS/N MO/S IA Sunday from Sergio's remnants?  Boy, the look on the Euro has me intrigued and fits the idea that this system would take a more southerly route based on my ideas that I outlined last week.  Let's see if this system can spin up into another TX Panhandle hook up towards the GL's???

86?!? It’s only gonna be 49 here. Talk about two different worlds. Feel better buddy, and enjoy that warmth.

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I enjoy my German Beers and Brats, but I also tend to enjoy seeing this model "sniff" out the medium range pattern. Looks very similar to the Euro.  Another wintry system on tap for late this weekend???  This new LRC pattern is a beauty...might be our 1st storm thread???  Let's see how this system develops.  

 

icon_asnow_us_61.png

We have snow in the forecast during several times in the next 7 days.  Also, just saw that the low for Sunday night/Monday morning is trending towards the lower to mid 20's.  Whoa.  

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We have snow in the forecast during several times in the next 7 days.  Also, just saw that the low for Sunday night/Monday morning is trending towards the lower to mid 20's.  Whoa.  

Wowza!  It wasn't long ago you were dreaming of this type of weather in the heat and humidity, but boy, when it did flip it came in hard for your back yard.  Enjoy it my friend!

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Amazing stuff. Wow. And i love seeing those WWA flying out in NE and the Dakotas! Not bad for Oct 9th.

 

Winter Weather Advisory for west and north Nebraska tue-tue nite! 1-3"

 

posting this as our first wintery system of the new season east of the Rockies:

 

20181009 NWS map 1st wintery system.PNG

 

 

@ Tom

 

Crazy to read "could this be the first winter storm for our sub??" while my trees have barely started to turn and It's gonna feel like FL beach wx. Talk about wild

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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