October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

18Z GFS brings precip back for Friday but temps in the lower 40s. That's lower than temps previously were on GFS but still way too warm for flakes. 

[St Paul Storm]

The only thing that might stop Michael from reaching Cat 4 is it reaching land first. That thing is still rapidly intensifying. I’m calling Cat 4 by morning.

[Andrew NE]

Looking at ndor cameras it snowing pretty good in western Nebraska. What a dynamic system this has been. Hopefully it delivers when it comes back around this winter.

[Madtown]

120mph...wow!

[Niko]

Currently 72F at this hour w clear skies. Gorgeous evening out there. Much, much cooler air arriving soon. Temps next week stay in the 40s for highs.

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

Are ya seeing any flakes in your forecast??!!

[OKwx2k4]

[OKwx2k4]

What is very significant about our current weather, to me, is that it is occurring without the help of -AO.

[St Paul Storm]

Heavy rain and 45F. Standing water all over the place. Cycle this puppy through when it’s below freezing. Can’t wait for that.

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

Are ya seeing any flakes in your forecast??!!

 

  You j/k or do you mean the 90 day forecast? This sure isn't Oct of '77 tho, that's for sure. This area saw 14 mornings at 30F or lower that month, including 5 of the first 10 days. I think that's why trees turned so much more stunningly back then. Meanwhile, the a/c cranks on...and on here

[OKwx2k4]

You j/k or do you mean the 90 day forecast? This sure isn't Oct of '77 tho, that's for sure. This area saw 14 mornings at 30F or lower that month, including 5 of the first 10 days. I think that's why trees turned so much more stunningly back then. Meanwhile, the a/c cranks on...and on here

This would be more like 78 right?

[jaster220]

What is very significant about our current weather, to me, is that it is occurring without the help of -AO.

ao.sprd2 (1).gif

 

Yeah, that part could come later on..just think

[Niko]

  You j/k or do you mean the 90 day forecast? This sure isn't Oct of '77 tho, that's for sure. This area saw 14 mornings at 30F or lower that month, including 5 of the first 10 days. I think that's why trees turned so much more stunningly back then. Meanwhile, the a/c cranks on...and on here

:lol: :lol:

A little sarcasm!

 

Its sultry here as well. I have my fans on . Current temp at 71F. Crazy weather. Cant wait for the colder air to arrive.

[jaster220]

This would be more like 78 right?

 

Idk or remember that Oct. Was it a warmer one? One of my key analogs was 77-78 not 78-79, thus the comparison vs what's happened so far. Ofc, we are about to get chilly so it may be a matter of timing and a premature comment on my part, lol

[OKwx2k4]

Idk or remember that Oct. Was it a warmer one? One of my key analogs was 77-78 not 78-79, thus the comparison vs what's happened so far. Ofc, we are about to get chilly so it may be a matter of timing and a premature comment on my part, lol

Man, I honestly cant recall for fact. I thought 78 had the tall ridges in October and early December before the massive 1978-79 cold wave began.

[OKwx2k4]

1976 and 77 make my list exclusively as Niño candidates at +.08 and +.09° with the Pacific in near perfect alignment. Maybe just centered later in the season is why. I'm not really making any stretches in saying so, I dont believe. The N. Pac is something out of every single hard-core, frigid winter I have ever studied and the central-east Pacific is cooling in the perfect places to get the southern branch rocking within 30 days or less. I'm not projecting anything into November but. If only I could...

 

I'm interested to see if theres any major warmup on the other side of this cold blast before I make any rash decisions about November yet. Honest truth is, I've never saw anything like this before and that's pretty intense all by itself.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, that part could come later on..just think

Or the whole thing just gets stuck over here the majority of the winter.

 

It happened to Russia for 3 seasons. It could very well happen here.

[jaster220]

:lol: :lol:

A little sarcasm!

 

Its sultry here as well. I have my fans on . Current temp at 71F. Crazy weather. Cant wait for the colder air to arrive.

 

71F is my forecasted LOW. Sitting at 74F outside, and 75F inside. Took an extra long walk at dusk with my wife knowing it'd likely be our last "summer evening stroll" with shorts and no jackets needed. For a small town, Marshall's known for people on the streets and there were plenty this evening. The city has already shut the fountain down for the cold season. That usually will draw a crowd of it's own on a nice warm evening like this. Some leaf drop is beginning to be noticeable and I saw my first person using a leaf blower (aka lazy dude's rake). In about 10 days the piles will be 3 foot high in the streets. We've got those massive old maples lining many of the streets in this town, one that is more than 350 yrs old. It must've been 180 already when the first settlers founded this town in 1832. Back then this region was known for its bogs and swamplands along the Kalamazoo river basin. Cranberries grew in abundance, and pioneers fought off wolfs, bears, Lynx, and Cougars just to name the largest predators. Only the Cougars survived to this day. I glimpsed the long tail of one on the outskirts of Battle Creek. They mostly hang there as it's a jungle ova there. K, that was j/k. BC proper is a human jungle, but the big cats live in the forested regions surrounding that city, not here in Marshall that I know of. 

[Minny_Weather]

 

Tonight

Patchy drizzle before 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 42. Northwest wind around 9 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 50. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph.

Thursday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday

A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers between 9am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Saturday

A chance of rain after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night

Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Sunday

A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.

Sunday Night

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.

Point grid for here now features a rain/snow mix. Kinda surprising to see OAX include snow.

[jaster220]

Man, I honestly cant recall for fact. I thought 78 had the tall ridges in October and early December before the massive 1978-79 cold wave began.

 

What I can recall about those three autumns is my time at "deer camp" with Da Yoopers!  Well, actually we weren't Yoopers we were just a group of flat-landers who went north but not all the way to Yooper-land. This was rifle season (Nov15-30 in The Mitt) but we usually hunted only the opening week. We didn't make Da Yooper's "2nd week of Deer Camp" our anthem at the time.  I remember 1976 was bitter cold but dry and sunny. We hunted near a massive reservoir on the AuSable river and I saw that lake gain a half inch of perfectly flat and crystal clear ice every night all the way across (half mile? ). I could throw a rock and it would skip making a unique sound on the ice at every bounce. My rocks must've went half way across before they finally stopped. They went out of my sight I know. '77 was seasonably cold cloudy and pretty typical hunting season wx without even a flurry. As a matter of fact, out of 74, 75, 76, 77, & 78 only 74 and 78 featured snow of any sort and '78 featured a legit early season storm but we had left before it hit. My cousin who stayed told be how bad it was later. 

[OKwx2k4]

What I can recall about those three autumns is my time at "deer camp" with Da Yoopers! Well, actually we weren't Yoopers we were just a group of flat-landers who went north but not all the way to Yooper-land. This was rifle season (Nov15-30 in The Mitt) but we usually hunted only the opening week. We didn't make Da Yooper's "2nd week of Deer Camp" our anthem at the time. I remember 1976 was bitter cold but dry and sunny. We hunted near a massive reservoir on the AuSable river and I saw that lake gain a half inch of perfectly flat and crystal clear ice every night all the way across (half mile? ). I could throw a rock and it would skip making a unique sound on the ice at every bounce. My rocks must've went half way across before they finally stopped. They went out of my sight I know. '77 was seasonably cold cloudy and pretty typical hunting season wx without even a flurry. As a matter of fact, out of 74, 75, 76, 77, & 78 only 74 and 78 featured snow of any sort and '78 featured a legit early season storm but we had left before it hit. My cousin who stayed told be how bad it was later.

Maybe this one will favor '76 then.

[OKwx2k4]

In other news, if you're me, the GFS tonight is amazing perfection for October.

[possum]

it it asking too much that i just want solid snow cover reaching all the way to mississippi and no above 32 high for the month of jan from so ill north??  

[Tom]

  You j/k or do you mean the 90 day forecast? This sure isn't Oct of '77 tho, that's for sure. This area saw 14 mornings at 30F or lower that month, including 5 of the first 10 days. I think that's why trees turned so much more stunningly back then. Meanwhile, the a/c cranks on...and on here

I had to turn mine on later in the day bc I couldn't deal with the warmth and humidity.  Finally, we will be able turn it off for good!

 

Or the whole thing just gets stuck over here the majority of the winter.

 

It happened to Russia for 3 seasons. It could very well happen here.

 

This, I have been pondering about in my mind for months now and the lack of any substantial build up of snow cover to date in Eurasia leads more confidence that it may in fact be the case.  Although, there is some guidance suggesting a rapid growth later this month.

it it asking too much that i just want solid snow cover reaching all the way to mississippi and no above 32 high for the month of jan from so ill north??  

 

This year, out of any in the past several seasons, has a good shot at it....obviously, that is a difficult feat to meet, but this season is shaping up to be a good candidate for it.

 

 

Meanwhile, another clue natures fury is ramping up this month...seemingly, everything on this side of the globe is coming in about a month early.   #GalesofNovember....in Octobrrr????

 

 

NWS Duluth

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ANGRY LAKE SUPERIOR: Gale-force winds and storm-force gusts (55 mph) will get Lake Superior rocking and rolling tonight through Wednesday. This will build large waves over the lake, which will flood and damage the shoreline. #mnwx #wiwx

[Tom]

@ St Paul, your call was spot on!  Hurricane Michael is now a beastly Cat 4...

 

 

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

[Tom]

We will probably be seeing many Freeze Watches hoisted later today for tomorrow night across the MW/GL's...if not this weekend, Chicago may get in on it next week.  

 

[Tom]

#Winterishere...esp, for the ski resorts out west...it's going to be a great season for the Rockies...these pics are from Idaho in the Sawtooth Mtn's...

 

 

 

[Tom]

#Michael is meteorological beauty via satellite imagery...can this storm hit Cat 5 before landfall???

 

[St Paul Storm]

@ St Paul, your call was spot on!  Hurricane Michael is now a beastly Cat 4...

One of the times I wish I was wrong. Those people are going to have their lives changed in a few hours. That area of FL is beautiful, but it also has a lot of lower income households living in a trailer parks, etc. They’re going to need help.

[St Paul Storm]

#Michael is meteorological beauty via satellite...can this storm hit Cat 5 before landfall???  

 

Everything suggests further strengthening until landfall. What an absolute monster. I hate to to root for a Cat 5 but if it’s going to be close might as well go for it.

[St Paul Storm]

Meanwhile 45F and heavy drizzle here. We’ve had rain everyday so far in Oct except for the 6th. Average Oct rainfall has already been reached on Oct 10.

 

Snowing in NW MN. Rain/snow mix still looking like a possibility later tonight here.

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MORNING...

 

The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a Freeze

Watch, which is in effect from late tonight through Thursday

morning.

 

* TEMPERATURES...possibly dropping into the upper 20s and lower

30s.

 

* TIMING...temperatures falling to near freezing after 3 am cdt

and possibly lingering until 9 am cdt.

 

* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures could kill sensitive vegetation

and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Freeze Watch means that sub-freezing temperatures are possible.

These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

First freeze likely tonight, first hard freeze likely Sunday night.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm noticing a rabid warm bias in the GFS. It's always had a sort of warm bias, but this year its margin of error has been ~15*F at times. Monday it had us getting near 70 and we were stuck in the mid-50s. It also didn't show Western Nebraska getting snow until the snow started falling. GFS is doing horribly this year. Meanwhile, what originally seemed like a cold-biased Euro is actually performing quite well.

[Andie]

Hey LNK, Did the snow materialize and what are you seeing for the long term for the central and southern plains this winter.

I'm wondering if North Texas will see some snow this year.

 

Canada has lost millions in cold weather this fall. Harvests are trashed. This has rolled over the border into the US.

Early cold (by as much as a month) has been damaging harvest across the globe.

[CentralNebWeather]

Freeze warning here tonight.  Looks like multiple cold nights coming up with perhaps the coldest night being Sunday night/Monday morning with low 20's predicted.  Growing season will end and hopefully bugs and allergies will meet their demise.

[Minny_Weather]

Hey LNK, Did the snow materialize and what are you seeing for the long term for the central and southern plains this winter.

I'm wondering if North Texas will see some snow this year.

 

Canada has lost millions in cold weather this fall. Harvests are trashed. This has rolled over the border into the US.

Early cold (by as much as a month) has been damaging harvest across the globe.

I'm thinking the accumulating snow chance was just a one-run wet dream by the Euro. Could still see a rain/snow mix Friday and/or Sunday.

 

As for the long range, I'm thinking slightly below normal temperature-wise and fairly close to normal snow for here at least. I'm worried that we may see a suppressed storm track, which may be good for you but is not good for us.

[Niko]

Still balmy w a temp of 71F. Colder air on the way. Lows next week hitting the freezing mark, if not upper 20s. Wow, what a drastic change.

[Niko]

Hurricane Micheal means business. I have lots of friends down there now in the Panhandle (also known as Harlem buddies, "The Hood" is the main name) vacationing. Hope y'all safe down there and get back to the Bronx soon.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up another 0.80" of rain late yesterday and overnight.  My 10-day total will finish at 3.77".  That's on the low end of the expected range, but still a nice chunk of water.

[OKwx2k4]

Someone already said, but Michael is a meteorological beauty but such a devastating day. Sad.