bud2380 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 NAM now trying to bring some snow into southern Iowa including Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Sunday evening. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018101212/063/snku_acc.us_c.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 ND and parts of MN got rocked from our sub forums first legit winter storm... WOW looks like it was an over-performer. NWS started out with just a general WWA and I never read the upgraded texts figuring they were the minimum storm requirements as often is the case. Wow, I had no idea that much snow fell in eastern North Dakota. I was busy following the hurricane. yep, same reason here 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 3K NAM following suit. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018101212/060/refcmp_ptype.us_c.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Northern Wi 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 NAM now trying to bring some snow into southern Iowa including Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Sunday evening. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018101212/063/snku_acc.us_c.png I say, fire up a thread! I’m on the road today so not able to. This system will deliver the seasons first accumulating snow for parts of the Plains/MW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 I say, fire up a thread! I’m on the road today so not able to. This system will deliver the seasons first accumulating snow for parts of the Plains/MW.South of me from these maps. Hope for a north bump in the next 36 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Casper, WY went from June weather to December weather just week later! Could see highs in the upper 20's on Sunday which is colder than the avg high temps in January there. Brrrr https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/casper/wyoming/united-states/uswy0030 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Currently in Traverse on R&R myself Coming up the middle of The Mitt yesterday afternoon was to watch the car thermo steadily drop from low 50's when we departed Marshall around 1pm to a very windy and chilly 43F in the central highlands where we headed west to the coast. Man were those some winter-like blustery winds! The kind where you need to hold your car door or it gets ripped out of your hands, lol. WC's had to be low 30's with a fine mist of LER on and off. Truly went from 70F at the midnight hour at home to a "real feel" temp in the low 30's by late afternoon up north. And after the balmy 3 days downstate, it felt like a slide right from #summer to #winter in one single day. A single day flip I won't soon forget. We are staying at a really unique place here in town. Being down at lake level we just had some LER showers overnight, but I can see on radar that the highlands inland were still getting some nice LES streamers off of the lake. No doubt whitening the ground similar to the photo above from N Wisco. The color change back home in Marshall, and here along the immediate coast is the same and only about 30-50% but inland near Kalkaska the forested areas appear to at or very near peak. Pretty much right on schedule if my memory serves me. The immediate 3-5 miles along the shoreline of the big lake doesn't peak until the last week of Oct. As mentioned by first-hand experience, the leafs come down and it can then snow seriously the very next week. Depending on the year, it can be a very short window between. I could see this year being one of those with the way warmth has stuck around the first 3rd of Oct. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Looks like there's a real chance for some snow around here monday night. Every model is doing it. Looks like a typical october snow, where evap cooling is the rule of the day. Shouldn't amount to much, but this is a solid shot at first flakes. Apparently there were flurries around early this morning to our east, but I didnt see any. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Also my brother says he saw flurries today in Cedar Rapids. I didn't see any myself. Not sure if some of the other CR posters saw anything? I saw a few tiny flakes. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 First snow shower of the year happening right now in LaSalle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Currently in Traverse on R&R myself Coming up the middle of The Mitt yesterday afternoon was to watch the car thermo steadily drop from low 50's when we departed Marshall around 1pm to a very windy and chilly 43F in the central highlands where we headed west to the coast. Man were those some winter-like blustery winds! The kind where you need to hold your car door or it gets ripped out of your hands, lol. WC's had to be low 30's with a fine mist of LER on and off. Truly went from 70F at the midnight hour at home to a "real feel" temp in the low 30's by late afternoon up north. And after the balmy 3 days downstate, it felt like a slide right from #summer to #winter in one single day. A single day flip I won't soon forget. We are staying at a really unique place here in town. Wellington Inn.JPG Being down at lake level we just had some LER showers overnight, but I can see on radar that the highlands inland were still getting some nice LES streamers off of the lake. No doubt whitening the ground similar to the photo above from N Wisco. The color change back home in Marshall, and here along the immediate coast is the same and only about 30-50% but inland near Kalkaska the forested areas appear to at or very near peak. Pretty much right on schedule if my memory serves me. The immediate 3-5 miles along the shoreline of the big lake doesn't peak until the last week of Oct. As mentioned by first-hand experience, the leafs come down and it can then snow seriously the very next week. Depending on the year, it can be a very short window between. I could see this year being one of those with the way warmth has stuck around the first 3rd of Oct.There was a time when we used to go to TC area for my birthday (the first week of November) and there have been years when there were still leaves on the trees (in town) to years when there was several inches of snow on the ground. We don't go up there now for my birthday as it cost a lot more then it once did to stay up there. But that said Enjoy your stay. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Now pound town south of Chicago in LaSalle Co per reports. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 N/C IL ---- Friday, October 12th. Snowflakes falling before lunch. It was 87 degrees on Monday. Happy Fall. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 There were flurries at about 6am today in Lincoln. It's just rain now though. 43.0*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Canadian... http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018101212/066/sn10_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 South of me from these maps. Hope for a north bump in the next 36 hours.How often do you hear someone from S/C Nebraska say they might get missed to the south with the first snowfall of the season. Ha! Crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Currently cloudy and chilly w temps remaining in the 40s. Very raw day. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersno Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 How often do you hear someone from S/C Nebraska say they might get missed to the south with the first snowfall of the season. Ha! Crazy.Thought I would never here that in Oct. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 How often do you hear someone from S/C Nebraska say they might get missed to the south with the first snowfall of the season. Ha! Crazy.That is funny. Usually I say I am getting missed to the North. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 12z Euro looks about the same as the 00z run for Sunday's system. A little more robust into Iowa this go around and maybe a bit further north in IA this time, but overall not drastically different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Here we go! 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Some good quotes I pulled from DMX afternoon discussion:Temperature-wise, Central Iowa appears to have skipped ahead 30 daysas forecast temperatures for the next several days resemble thosetypically seen in in central Iowa during mid to late November. TheDes Moines metro also reported its first snowflakes of the seasonthis morning. For Des Moines, October 14 is the date of the firstaverage trace or more of snowfall... so we are actually not too farahead of that date.The record coldest max temperature for both Des Moines and Waterloo on 10/14 is 45degrees... a record which we may likely break.Monday morning will likely be the coldest day of the season for most ofIowa, with low temperatures nearing the low 20s in northern IowaA classic rex block pattern locks in over western CONUS. This willsupport dry conditions over Iowa for much of next week. With thethermal ridge boosted with the rex block, the arctic air machinewill be pushed northeast of Iowa, meaning temperatures will be cold(as NW flow continues), but only 10 or so degrees below normal.#ItCouldBeWorse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Saddle up friends! This ol train still has a lot of coal left to burn. It's like we skipped 45 days in 24 hours here. I know what's coming and it's still unreal to me. Bring on winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Some good quotes I pulled from DMX afternoon discussion: Temperature-wise, Central Iowa appears to have skipped ahead 30 daysas forecast temperatures for the next several days resemble thosetypically seen in in central Iowa during mid to late November. TheDes Moines metro also reported its first snowflakes of the seasonthis morning. For Des Moines, October 14 is the date of the firstaverage trace or more of snowfall... so we are actually not too farahead of that date. The record coldest max temperature for both Des Moines and Waterloo on 10/14 is 45degrees... a record which we may likely break. Monday morning will likely be the coldest day of the season for most ofIowa, with low temperatures nearing the low 20s in northern IowaA classic rex block pattern locks in over western CONUS. This willsupport dry conditions over Iowa for much of next week. With thethermal ridge boosted with the rex block, the arctic air machinewill be pushed northeast of Iowa, meaning temperatures will be cold(as NW flow continues), but only 10 or so degrees below normal.#ItCouldBeWorse. I love the reports you folks up there are giving, along with the NWS stuff and records/stats. May be a lot of that type of stuff to post this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Here we go! IMG_3410.PNGDefinitely not something you see every October! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Saw my first flakes at about 6:00 this evening! They were very light but flakes nonetheless. Are we goin right to Winter?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Saw my first flakes at about 6:00 this evening! They were very light but flakes nonetheless. Are we goin right to Winter?!1911 redux for the win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Special Weather Statement from NWS on Okla. and Tx. Panhandle Snow,/Freeze https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ama&wwa=special%20weather%20statement Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Saw my first flakes at about 6:00 this evening! They were very light but flakes nonetheless. Are we goin right to Winter?!While I did not see my first flakes yet, there was a report in downtown Chicago of flurries. The heavier stuff was flying a bit farther south across LaSalle into N IN. Today's disturbance tracking across the MW will go down as the "First Flakes" of the season for many of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Some pics of the snow across IL today...#Winterishere The Loop... Near Champaign, IL... La Salle... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 My brother was driving thru IL today and sent me a video of it snowing pretty hard! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Is it just me or is the GFS slowly trending colder mid-long range? Might be correcting itself and aligning to what Tom has been talkin for a while now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Is it just me or is the GFS slowly trending colder mid-long range? Might be correcting itself and aligning to what Tom has been talkin for a while now.Yes I do believe it is as well. It does look pretty dry as well after the Sunday system. We need to dry out after all the rain the last 2 weeks but as we all know this time of year the pattern development is critical too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Cloudy and chilly w spotty showers. Temps holding in the low 40s (43F). Frost Advisory for tomorrow nite. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 WOW.....The power of MA Nature https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#10/30.0340/-85.5176 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 It's the coldest morning of the season here this morning (31F). The sunrise is now at 7:00am, as the amount of daylight continues to dwindle each and every day. As an early riser, the amount of darkness is very noticeable ever since we flipped the calendar into Sept when the sun rose a little past 6:00am. In any event, yesterday was a darn chilly day with temps only reaching 42F at ORD and flakes flying and accumulating down state, albeit in minor. The historical date for measurable snow at ORD is Nov 16th, so to see folks down near Peoria/LaSalle/Champaign see minor accumulations on Oct 12th is certainly a leap ahead of the norms this year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 With clear skies the low here at my house was 32.4° some very light frost on the roof tops and tops of cars. No frost at ground level. The low so far at GRR looks to be 38° this is the coldest low since April 30th that is 166 days. April 30th was the last time it got to 32 or lower at GRR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 It's the coldest morning of the season here this morning (31F). The sunrise is now at 7:00am, as the amount of daylight continues to dwindle each and every day. As an early riser, the amount of darkness is very noticeable ever since we flipped the calendar into Sept when the sun rose a little past 6:00am. In any event, yesterday was a darn chilly day with temps only reaching 42F at ORD and flakes flying and accumulating down state, albeit in minor. The historical date for measurable snow at ORD is Nov 16th, so to see folks down near Peoria/LaSalle/Champaign see minor accumulations on Oct 12th is certainly a leap ahead of the norms this year. Looks like the earliest first snow fall here at Grand Rapids of one inch or more was on October 12, 2006 when 2" fell. The most snow fall here at Grand Rapids for the month of October was back in 1967 when 8.4" fell. With 8.2" of that falling on October 27th in October of 1997 here in Grand Rapids 2.4" (also on Oct 27th) fell but in the small town of Coopersville where I worked at that time 6" fell with a lot of thunder and lighting with a lot of trees down. Last year 0.4" fell on Oct 31 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Cloudy w partial clearing taking place and temp at 39F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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