Jump to content

October 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

ND and parts of MN got rocked from our sub forums first legit winter storm...

 

StormTotalSnowFGF_SFC_20181010.png

 

WOW looks like it was an over-performer. NWS started out with just a general WWA and I never read the upgraded texts figuring they were the minimum storm requirements as often is the case.

 

Wow, I had no idea that much snow fell in eastern North Dakota.  I was busy following the hurricane.

 

yep, same reason here :lol:

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM now trying to bring some snow into southern Iowa including Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Sunday evening.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018101212/063/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

I say, fire up a thread! I’m on the road today so not able to. This system will deliver the seasons first accumulating snow for parts of the Plains/MW.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently in Traverse on R&R myself :)

 

Coming up the middle of The Mitt yesterday afternoon was to watch the car thermo steadily drop from low 50's when we departed Marshall around 1pm to a very windy and chilly 43F in the central highlands where we headed west to the coast. Man were those some winter-like blustery winds! The kind where you need to hold your car door or it gets ripped out of your hands, lol. WC's had to be low 30's with a fine mist of LER on and off. Truly went from 70F at the midnight hour at home to a "real feel" temp in the low 30's by late afternoon up north. And after the balmy 3 days downstate, it felt like a slide right from #summer to #winter in one single day. A single day flip I won't soon forget.

 

We are staying at a really unique place here in town.

 

Wellington Inn.JPG

 

Being down at lake level we just had some LER showers overnight, but I can see on radar that the highlands inland were still getting some nice LES streamers off of the lake. No doubt whitening the ground similar to the photo above from N Wisco.

 

The color change back home in Marshall, and here along the immediate coast is the same and only about 30-50% but inland near Kalkaska the forested areas appear to at or very near peak. Pretty much right on schedule if my memory serves me. The immediate 3-5 miles along the shoreline of the big lake doesn't peak until the last week of Oct. As mentioned by first-hand experience, the leafs come down and it can then snow seriously the very next week. Depending on the year, it can be a very short window between. I could see this year being one of those with the way warmth has stuck around the first 3rd of Oct.

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like there's a real chance for some snow around here monday night. Every model is doing it. Looks like a typical october snow, where evap cooling is the rule of the day. Shouldn't amount to much, but this is a solid shot at first flakes. Apparently there were flurries around early this morning to our east, but I didnt see any.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also my brother says he saw flurries today in Cedar Rapids.  I didn't see any myself.  Not sure if some of the other CR posters saw anything?

 

I saw a few tiny flakes.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently in Traverse on R&R myself :)

 

Coming up the middle of The Mitt yesterday afternoon was to watch the car thermo steadily drop from low 50's when we departed Marshall around 1pm to a very windy and chilly 43F in the central highlands where we headed west to the coast. Man were those some winter-like blustery winds! The kind where you need to hold your car door or it gets ripped out of your hands, lol. WC's had to be low 30's with a fine mist of LER on and off. Truly went from 70F at the midnight hour at home to a "real feel" temp in the low 30's by late afternoon up north. And after the balmy 3 days downstate, it felt like a slide right from #summer to #winter in one single day. A single day flip I won't soon forget.

 

We are staying at a really unique place here in town.

 

attachicon.gifWellington Inn.JPG

 

Being down at lake level we just had some LER showers overnight, but I can see on radar that the highlands inland were still getting some nice LES streamers off of the lake. No doubt whitening the ground similar to the photo above from N Wisco.

 

The color change back home in Marshall, and here along the immediate coast is the same and only about 30-50% but inland near Kalkaska the forested areas appear to at or very near peak. Pretty much right on schedule if my memory serves me. The immediate 3-5 miles along the shoreline of the big lake doesn't peak until the last week of Oct. As mentioned by first-hand experience, the leafs come down and it can then snow seriously the very next week. Depending on the year, it can be a very short window between. I could see this year being one of those with the way warmth has stuck around the first 3rd of Oct.

There was a time when we used to go to TC area for my birthday (the first week of November) and there have been years when there were still leaves on the trees (in town) to years when there was several inches of snow on the ground. We don't go up there now for my birthday as it cost a lot more then it once did to stay up there.  But that said Enjoy your stay.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently cloudy and chilly w temps remaining in the 40s. Very raw day.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here we go!

 

IMG_3410.PNG

  • Like 3

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some good quotes I pulled from DMX afternoon discussion:

Temperature-wise, Central Iowa appears to have skipped ahead 30 days
as forecast temperatures for the next several days resemble those
typically seen in in central Iowa during mid to late November. The
Des Moines
metro also reported its first snowflakes of the season
this morning. For Des Moines, October 14 is the date of the first
average
trace or more of snowfall... so we are actually not too far
ahead of that date.


The record coldest max temperature for both Des Moines and Waterloo on 10/14 is 45
degrees... a record which we may
likely break.

Monday morning will likely be the coldest day of the season for most of
Iowa, with low temperatures nearing the low 20s in northern Iowa

A classic rex block pattern locks in over western CONUS. This will
support dry conditions over Iowa for much of next week. With the

thermal ridge boosted with the rex block, the arctic air machine
will be pushed northeast of Iowa, meaning temperatures will be cold
(as NW
flow continues), but only 10 or so degrees below normal.
#ItCouldBeWorse.



 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some good quotes I pulled from DMX afternoon discussion:

 

Temperature-wise, Central Iowa appears to have skipped ahead 30 days

as forecast temperatures for the next several days resemble those

typically seen in in central Iowa during mid to late November. The

Des Moines

metro

also reported its first snowflakes of the season

this morning. For Des Moines, October 14 is the date of the first

average

trace

or more of snowfall... so we are actually not too far

ahead of that date.

 

The record coldest max temperature for both Des Moines and Waterloo on 10/14 is 45

degrees... a record which we may

likely

break.

 

Monday morning will

likely

be the coldest day of the season for most of

Iowa, with low temperatures nearing the low 20s in northern Iowa

A classic

rex block

pattern locks in over western

CONUS

. This will

support dry conditions over Iowa for much of next week. With the

thermal

ridge

boosted with the

rex block

, the arctic air machine

will be pushed northeast of Iowa, meaning temperatures will be cold

(as NW

flow

continues), but only 10 or so degrees below

normal

.

#ItCouldBeWorse.

 

 

I love the reports you folks up there are giving, along with the NWS stuff and records/stats. May be a lot of that type of stuff to post this year.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Special Weather Statement from NWS on Okla. and Tx. Panhandle Snow,/Freeze

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ama&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saw my first flakes at about 6:00 this evening! They were very light but flakes nonetheless. Are we goin right to Winter?!

While I did not see my first flakes yet, there was a report in downtown Chicago of flurries. The heavier stuff was flying a bit farther south across LaSalle into N IN.  Today's disturbance tracking across the MW will go down as the "First Flakes" of the season for many of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it just me or is the GFS slowly trending colder mid-long range? Might be correcting itself and aligning to what Tom has been talkin for a while now.

Yes I do believe it is as well. It does look pretty dry as well after the Sunday system. We need to dry out after all the rain the last 2 weeks but as we all know this time of year the pattern development is critical too.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cloudy and chilly w spotty showers. Temps holding in the low 40s (43F). Frost Advisory for tomorrow nite.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's the coldest morning of the season here this morning (31F).  The sunrise is now at 7:00am, as the amount of daylight continues to dwindle each and every day.  As an early riser, the amount of darkness is very noticeable ever since we flipped the calendar into Sept when the sun rose a little past 6:00am.

 

In any event, yesterday was a darn chilly day with temps only reaching 42F at ORD and flakes flying and accumulating down state, albeit in minor.  The historical date for measurable snow at ORD is Nov 16th, so to see folks down near Peoria/LaSalle/Champaign see minor accumulations on Oct 12th is certainly a leap ahead of the norms this year.  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With clear skies the low here at my house was 32.4° some very light frost on the roof tops and tops of cars. No frost at ground level. The low so far at GRR looks to be 38° this is the coldest low since April 30th that is 166 days. April 30th was the last time it got to 32 or lower at GRR.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's the coldest morning of the season here this morning (31F).  The sunrise is now at 7:00am, as the amount of daylight continues to dwindle each and every day.  As an early riser, the amount of darkness is very noticeable ever since we flipped the calendar into Sept when the sun rose a little past 6:00am.

 

In any event, yesterday was a darn chilly day with temps only reaching 42F at ORD and flakes flying and accumulating down state, albeit in minor.  The historical date for measurable snow at ORD is Nov 16th, so to see folks down near Peoria/LaSalle/Champaign see minor accumulations on Oct 12th is certainly a leap ahead of the norms this year.  

Looks like the earliest first snow fall here at Grand Rapids of one inch or more was on October 12, 2006 when 2" fell. The most snow fall here at Grand Rapids for the month of October was back in 1967 when 8.4" fell. With 8.2" of that falling on October 27th   in October of 1997 here in Grand Rapids 2.4" (also on Oct 27th) fell but in the small town of Coopersville where I worked at that time 6" fell with a lot of thunder and lighting with a lot of trees down. Last year 0.4" fell on Oct 31

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cloudy w partial clearing taking place and temp at 39F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...