Niko Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Looks like a dry forecast coming up, but below normal temps. Next week (midweek) turns very chilly as highs remain possibly between 40-45F. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 There was a time when we used to go to TC area for my birthday (the first week of November) and there have been years when there were still leaves on the trees (in town) to years when there was several inches of snow on the ground. We don't go up there now for my birthday as it cost a lot more then it once did to stay up there. But that said Enjoy your stay. And that'd be "off season rates" for your b-day. TC has always been pricey that's for sure. Before I moved here in Sept of '90 I mostly stayed in the winter and thus avoided peak-season rates. Then after I moved I came up and stayed at a friend's place for free a couple times. Just recently been coming up again as a "tourist" and got sticker shocked yet again. Weekends during July and August are ridiculous so we came in late June. Having lived here 7 yrs it was hard to justify paying that for a couple nights at a hotel. About the same as you'd pay for a top-notch hotel downtown Chicago. This all started years ago when resort owners had to make 80% of their living off the very short warm season up here. It's much more year-round now then back then what with snowmobiling, casinos, etc. Ofc, there's also the Chicago connection, the LA connection, and the wealthy retiree connection (Mansion across the street for instance is owned by some retired GM exec). All these things drive the economy here along "The Gold Coast" of The Mitt. I always came north for winter skiing or summer vacations in the past and was waiting 10 yrs to take my wife (remarried) up north during color tour season since she's not a Michigan native. Finally got the chance here in 2018 and decided to pull the trigger expensive or not. As for our stay, my wife just commented what a wonderful get-away this has been and we've scored tickets to a popular musical at the Playhouse later today. You know what they say about married life, happy wife = happy life. Based on that alone, it's well worth the expense . Thx for the well wishes! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 It's official, ORD had its first Freeze (32F official low) of the year which is right on schedule. On the way back home from the gym, there was heavy frost on the grass, car tops, rooftops and also a hint of fog in the air. As I pulled into the neighborhood, chimney's were venting from the houses and with frost on the rooftops, it gave me a visual memory of the day the first Freeze has arrived. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Beautiful, sunny day out there, although, a little nippy w temps still at 43F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 We had a freeze warning Friday morning and a frost advisory this morning, but neither panned out. The airport hit 31 Friday morning, but here in the city we only hit the mid 30s. Last night we only briefly fell into the upper 30s before rising into the low 40s this morning, so no frost. It looks like a better chance Monday morning behind the snow system. Much of Iowa should freeze. I still have four hummingbirds and many of the salvia plants look best this time of year, just before getting killed by freeze. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Remarkable weather up there. It’s going to be quite a winter. We’ve already received 1.50” rain since 8 am. Lots more to come. Flash flood warnings everywhere. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Remarkable weather up there. It’s going to be quite a winter. We’ve already received 1.50” rain since 8 am. Lots more to come. Flash flood warnings everywhere.Feel free to keep posting your observations in here btw. As far as most of us are concerned North Texas is Great Plains. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Awesome. Received another 1 inch of rain in the past 2 hrs. Total in North Tx my location - 2.50" and still raining. Very dark out. Heavy low clouds. A bit of fog. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Just had a large ark float past the back patio.The 7th fairway is now officially a causeway. Water flooding east towards the lake about 1 mi away. Still pouring Lots of animals aboard. They all waved, sadly no room left for us. High of 77* today then as front pulls through we'll see high 40's through late week. More heavy rain through Wednesday night. 4 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Models are unrelenting with this pattern lasting to the end of the month at least. As someone in a previous post mentioned, (James1976??) trends indicate cooling over the last 3 days of model runs, and there is no evidence at this time to indicate that the cold is going away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 By the time this cold pattern migrates out over the eastern 3rd and SE of the US, it will already be time to reload and retrograde again. That puts the warm week or so at probably November 1-7(ish?). In other words, after we recycle the parts of the pattern I remember one more time, look out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 By the time this cold pattern migrates out over the eastern 3rd and SE of the US, it will already be time to reload and retrograde again. That puts the warm week or so at probably November 1-7(ish?). In other words, after we recycle the parts of the pattern I remember one more time, look out.A warm week this time of year is 60s, so no big deal. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Models are unrelenting with this pattern lasting to the end of the month at least. As someone in a previous post mentioned, (James1976??) trends indicate cooling over the last 3 days of model runs, and there is no evidence at this time to indicate that the cold is going away.It's fascinating to see this happen and the response from the atmosphere is going to be incredible. BTW, the window for the N ATL/Greenland Block to pop the last 10 days of the month will have merit. I'm seeing all the modeling heading towards it. My goodness, if that block develops in November, this pattern will be in full blown winter mode. Obviously, this is a Day 15 map below, but it fits the 10mb/30mb Strat warming idea I have used over the last several years that has proven to work. Canadian also agrees... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 It's fascinating to see this happen and the response from the atmosphere is going to be incredible. BTW, the window for the N ATL/Greenland Block to pop the last 10 days of the month will have merit. I'm seeing all the modeling heading towards it. My goodness, if that block develops in November, this pattern will be in full blown winter mode. Obviously, this is a Day 15 map below, but it fits the 10mb/30mb Strat warming idea I have used over the last several years that has proven to work. Canadian also agrees... Almost too pretty for words, isn't it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 The days totals The day's totals. Some areas more and stormier Currently 62*3.50" rain 29.94 inVisibility 9 mi.CloudsOvercast 700 ftDew Point 58 °FHumidity 91% 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 The days totals The day's totals. Some areas more and stormier Currently 62*3.50" rain 29.94 inVisibility 9 mi.CloudsOvercast 700 ftDew Point 58 °FHumidity 91% Goodness. How'd everyone fare with the severe weather down there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Sunny and gorgeous outside w current temp at 46F. Good shot in dropping into the 20s for lows next week as a surge of very chilly air arrives. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Hurricane Micheal left its mark in Panama City, where rescue workers are still finding bodies. Unreal situation has unfolded there. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Highly doubt we see any accumulations on the grass. That slot is becoming monstrous and then after it looks to just be light snow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Radar continues to die as it approaches here. Lincoln I guess. Starting to doubt that even the airport will see measurable snow. 34.5*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Yesterday, I spent most of my afternoon doing yard work. While I was doing so, I had a convo with my neighbord and it struck me, while I was raking the leaves and prepping my lawnmower, I don't recall having to rake my leaves this early in the season. In fact, the city hasn't even sent out the schedule for our leaf pickup! I normally don't rake until maybe very late October, but moreso in November, right before my usual trip to AZ. I thought that was interesting and I agreed with my neighbor that her intuition about this winter being a cold one will be spot on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 All our members that are experiencing their first measurable snow of the season are getting the rest of us anxious to do the same. Just finished making a huge pot of chicken/veggie soup to pound all day and watch football. Happy Sunday all! Oh, not to mention....is the Greenland block gonna pop late month??? This is likely the opportunity this early season to see it happen. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Im feeling the same Tom. Just got a crockpot roast goin. First one of the season. This weather just gets me in the mood. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Goodness. How'd everyone fare with the severe weather down there?I heard there was some storm damage in Hillsboro, but generally it was the widespread flooding. 3.50" in a morning is quite a lot to deal with in urban areas. Our golf course is technically on a flood plain. However, my house is high and with a wall. I've see it much worse, but it's engineered to drain into the creek behind us in the trees. That flows straight into the lake. So, we're okay. Golfers...not so much. lol 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Yesterday, I spent most of my afternoon doing yard work. While I was doing so, I had a convo with my neighbord and it struck me, while I was raking the leaves and prepping my lawnmower, I don't recall having to rake my leaves this early in the season. In fact, the city hasn't even sent out the schedule for our leaf pickup! I normally don't rake until maybe very late October, but moreso in November, right before my usual trip to AZ. I thought that was interesting and I agreed with my neighbor that her intuition about this winter being a cold will be spot on.I have tons of family in Az. They've been glad to see some rain this year. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 I have tons of family in Az. They've been glad to see some rain this year.My Dad moved there a while ago and my Mom is a legit warm wx snowbird. Where do you have family? We have a place in Fountain Hills, just east of Scottsdale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Hurricane Micheal left its mark in Panama City, where rescue workers are still finding bodies. Unreal situation has unfolded there. Speaking of unreal situations, and perhaps this was even a fluke of nature, but Crankyweatherguy applied the EAR to "Nth degree" in calling for a major hurricane to hit FL panhandle 2 weeks before Michael hit. He based it on one of the the re-curving Typhoons off of Japan and placement came crazy close to a dead match of Michael's strike zone. #amazing 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 My Dad moved there a while ago and my Mom is a legit warm wx snowbird. Where do you have family? We have a place in Fountain Hills, just east of Scottsdale.Further south, Tucson and my husband's uncle is Mayor of Nogales, Last name Doyle. His older brother was also Mayor in the 90's. The Rendon-Doyle family is this huge family originating in Ireland and Spain. BTW, we will see a front roll through this evening. Temps will begin to drop into the high 40's with rain through till Tuesday A.M. It's officially Fall. Love it. Trees starting to change. ( and my allergies abating! ) Enjoy raking those leaves. Yardwork in the snow will be interesting Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Thats quite the potent cold shot showing up for next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 A nice and sunny mid October day today. After an over night low of 38 here at my house it it now a pleasant 57° The current mean for October at Grand Rapids, MI is now at 58.5° (+5.5°) that will be going down over the last half on the month. A few facts to look forward to for the rest of the month. The current mean for October at GRR is now at 58.5° (+5.5°) that will be going down over the last half on the month. The average high/low as of today is 61/42 that will fall to 55/38 by the end of the month. The average first 32° for Grand Rapids is October 1st (note in the last 30 years the average date is October 6th) The latest first 32 date is October 28, 1920. The average first hard freeze (28°) is October 17th The latest first 28 or colder date is November 22, 2007. In the last 10 years the first hard freeze has not happened until November 5 times. So while Grand Rapids should see a low of 32 or lower yet this month Grand Rapids may or may not see one of 28 or colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Yesterday, I spent most of my afternoon doing yard work. While I was doing so, I had a convo with my neighbord and it struck me, while I was raking the leaves and prepping my lawnmower, I don't recall having to rake my leaves this early in the season. In fact, the city hasn't even sent out the schedule for our leaf pickup! I normally don't rake until maybe very late October, but moreso in November, right before my usual trip to AZ. I thought that was interesting and I agreed with my neighbor that her intuition about this winter being a cold one will be spot on.On this side of the lake the color is running a little later than average and while there has been some leave drop most of the leaves are still on the trees here. i keep saying I will keep a record as to when the 1. leaves change and 2. when most of the trees are bare. I know growing up in Alpena and later in Bay City Michigan the leaves changed color much earlier in Alpena as we would have most of the leaves raked up before my sisters birthday (October 22) and in Bay City the trees were always bare before Halloween. As for putting the lawnmower to bed for the winter I have many years cut the grass as late as just before my birthday (November 7) This year the grass is now very spring like green so with the cooler temps there may be several more times to cut the grass yet. But then it will be time to get the snow blower ready! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Andie, it looks like we're going right to deep fall down here with no end in sight. The pics are out of order, probably but wow. Not like any October I have ever experienced before. DEFINITELY unlike any I have observed or studied since following weather. The only ones that have featured many things like this are from history and they are crazy afterwards. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 I'm getting in a time warp to post Thanksgiving weather for my birthday. Can't beat that. Now if I could get a 36 hour snowstorm for Christmas I would be set. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 14, 2018 Report Share Posted October 14, 2018 Thanks for that info. Okwx we are in for quite a season. Any long term outlooks out there through say, March in Tx. for rain? The temps in the 40's in No. Tx. Are December temps typically. Just crazy. The cold front is moving in now. Cloud cover all day is growing heavier and darker. We expect up to 4" of rain over the next 2 days. Some areas see potential damaging winds and/or hail. This is typical in Texas spring and fall as that cold air slams into our warm Gulf air. We've been very fortunate the past 5 yrs with no tornados. That area seems to have moved off to the NE. Not sure why. If anyone has a theory I'd love to hear it. Highs in the mid to upper 40's Mon.-Tues. Hello Christmas weather! Then the upper 60's and dry for a week. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 15, 2018 Report Share Posted October 15, 2018 Temps falling into the 30s tanite w partly cloudy skies. Real shot of cold air arrives next week(midweek) with lows in the 20s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 15, 2018 Report Share Posted October 15, 2018 Speaking of unreal situations, and perhaps this was even a fluke of nature, but Crankyweatherguy applied the EAR to "Nth degree" in calling for a major hurricane to hit FL panhandle 2 weeks before Michael hit. He based it on one of the the re-curving Typhoons off of Japan and placement came crazy close to a dead match of Michael's strike zone. #amazing EARule and Michael.gifWow..great call on that one. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 15, 2018 Report Share Posted October 15, 2018 Per NOAA: A hard freeze will be possible Wednesday night as925mb temperatures fall below 0C while the boundary layer decouplesunder the influence of Canadian high pressure translating into theLower Ohio valley. That will be my coldest night this season thus far as 20s will dominate at night. I don't recall it got this cold last year in October. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2018 Happy Monday all! A rather chilly and quiet week is on tap except for a 1 day brief spike to 60F on Friday here, the rest of the week/weekend look chilly. A dominant NW Flow all week long keeps things quite except for strong clippers sliding north of the GL's unleashing lobes of chilly shots of cold, crisp Canadian air throughout the week. Might be some LES for our MI posters this weekend??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 15, 2018 Report Share Posted October 15, 2018 Sunny and gorgeous outside w current temp at 46F. Good shot in dropping into the 20s for lows next week as a surge of very chilly air arrives. How cold has Macomb gotten? So far, the cold has under-performed here in Marshall. Twice the NWS grid has called for frost. But it only got down to 38F and 35F briefly (out at the airport) so in town with all the green leafs still on the trees I've not seen any signs of frost. A nice and sunny mid October day today. After an over night low of 38 here at my house it it now a pleasant 57° The current mean for October at Grand Rapids, MI is now at 58.5° (+5.5°) that will be going down over the last half on the month. A few facts to look forward to for the rest of the month. The current mean for October at GRR is now at 58.5° (+5.5°) that will be going down over the last half on the month. The average high/low as of today is 61/42 that will fall to 55/38 by the end of the month. The average first 32° for Grand Rapids is October 1st(note in the last 30 years the average date is October 6th) The latest first 32 date is October 28, 1920. The average first hard freeze (28°) is October 17th The latest first 28 or colder date is November 22, 2007. In the last 10 years the first hard freeze has not happened until November 5 times. So while Grand Rapids should see a low of 32 or lower yet this month Grand Rapids may or may not see one of 28 or colder. I'd agree with the bolded. Late 80's is about the time when the pattern shifted away from the early piercing cold shots that dropped in from Canada during the 60s, 70s, & 80s. And with the GL's being really warm this summer I'd agree that the leafs (at least downstate) are running behind. I have 30F in my local grid for Thurs morning, so we may both bag the 32F low this week. With the insulating effects of Lake Michigan not certain if we can get to 28F tho. Per NOAA: A hard freeze will be possible Wednesday night as925mb temperatures fall below 0C while the boundary layer decouplesunder the influence of Canadian high pressure translating into theLower Ohio valley. That will be my coldest night this season thus far as 20s will dominate at night. I don't recall it got this cold last year in October. Much of last October was an extension of summer. Like what the East Coasters have been getting this year. Here in Marshall we couldn't buy a frost the first 3 weeks of the month, then finally (iirc) on the 26th we finally tanked into the mid-20s one morning. It ended up winter set in Dec 8th and it was a very snowy Dec, so it just shows that there's little connection between the two. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 15, 2018 Report Share Posted October 15, 2018 On this side of the lake the color is running a little later than average and while there has been some leave drop most of the leaves are still on the trees here. i keep saying I will keep a record as to when the 1. leaves change and 2. when most of the trees are bare. I know growing up in Alpena and later in Bay City Michigan the leaves changed color much earlier in Alpena as we would have most of the leaves raked up before my sisters birthday (October 22) and in Bay City the trees were always bare before Halloween. As for putting the lawnmower to bed for the winter I have many years cut the grass as late as just before my birthday (November 7) This year the grass is now very spring like green so with the cooler temps there may be several more times to cut the grass yet. But then it will be time to get the snow blower ready! Had my place for 10 yrs now so I know the stages of autumn. First my White Pine out back drops a bunch of pine straw. This usually happens while the lawn is still in growth mode during the first half of Oct so I end up raking that up before I can mow. Not that I couldn't just chop the stuff up, but it's very acidic and not good for the PH balance needed for a lawn to thrive. Yesterday was that day and due to the winds with the Thur CF, the straw was more widely scattered this year. So, step 1 in the bag. Step 2 is my maple out front will shed enough leafs (just starting) that I will need to rake those to the curb so I can mow again, lol. I do that at least two times because mowing down here usually lasts well into Nov. I also have a row of very hardy Norway Maples at the rear of my lot that don't turn and drop until November. I'm usually dealing with those well after Halloween's pumpkins have been smashed Yesterday's sky was classic Oct while I was working. Had to grab my camera.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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