October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

A nice test case coming up in the Week 2 range.  GEFS have recently trended warmer in recent runs and suggest a -PNA signal which I thought may happen, however, is it to strong???  Western Canada is likely to get much colder as we head into the opening days of November and a build up of snow is on the way up there.  There are some important clues showing up in the Day 10-15 10mb forecasts off the GEFS and they are supporting a Cross Polar flow pattern.  Nonetheless, a more active SW Flow pattern is prob going to set up early next month so that is a good sign.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

After this weekends cold snap, the leaves here are expeditiously changing color and will prob fall off quickly. Today's high was a delightful 64F with Full sun. I actually went out on my patio about an hour ago and soaked up some of that sunshine for a little while. It felt nice to feel the warmth of the sun.

I actually did the same. Grilled some burgers on the deck, mid 60’s with sunshine, and watched the remaining leaves fall off our backyard tree.

[Minny_Weather]

After a ton of waiting, the trees right outside my window, typically one of the first to change, have FINALLY turned yellow. They are among the last to change this year. 65.3*F and very dry out there.

[CentralNebWeather]

After a ton of waiting, the trees right outside my window, typically one of the first to change, have FINALLY turned yellow. They are among the last to change this year. 65.3*F and very dry out there.

Amazing and strange fall. 2 weeks ago I couldn’t believe nothing had changed color. The cold really sped up the process and shriveled leaves. They will mow up much better imo.

[Tom]

After a ton of waiting, the trees right outside my window, typically one of the first to change, have FINALLY turned yellow. They are among the last to change this year. 65.3*F and very dry out there.

How did the Euro Weeklies look today?  Are they out yet or no?  Much appreciated if you can comment on them when they load.

[Minny_Weather]

How did the Euro Weeklies look today?  Are they out yet or no?  Much appreciated if you can comment on them when they load.

They are out! Very cold as we open up November, precip-wise it isn't great for here but looks pretty good East of here out towards you.

[jaster220]

 

The storm system that has been on my calendar (26th-28th) is a complex one as there are 2 pieces of energy that will likely produce the majority of the action along the east coast, however, still provide some appreciable moisture around these parts.  Remnants of major Cat 4 Hurricane Willa (might reach Cat 5), will influence the pattern along the southern tier of the U.S and along the E.C.  How many times have we seen tropical systems influence our wx pattern this month??

 

..and right on cue, the AO/NAO combo takes a rare dip negative. I could see this being the hint at how the LRC will progress from The Plains to the coastal systems.

 

[Tom]

They are out! Very cold as we open up November, precip-wise it isn't great for here but looks pretty good East of here out towards you.

Ya, I think the trough stays anchored across our sub and then we'll see the ridge build more in the east later in November.

 

[Niko]

Clear evening and gorgeous. I was having cocktails at a outside bar/restaurant. Its very mild, but not for long.

 

BTW: Nor'Easter for the EC.

[Niko]

GOES-East satellite captured this infrared view of what looks like a frozen blanket over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.

 

(Winter 2013-14)

 

[OKwx2k4]

..and right on cue, the AO/NAO combo takes a rare dip negative. I could see this being the hint at how the LRC will progress from The Plains to the coastal systems.

 

20181022 nao graph.gif

Its almost FINALLY a sure thing. Goodness. It's been a long wait. -NAO, you're a sight for sure eyes.

[OKwx2k4]

Ya, I think the trough stays anchored across our sub and then we'll see the ridge build more in the east later in November.

 

 

That is a beautiful temp map. Nice!!

[Tom]

Its almost FINALLY a sure thing. Goodness. It's been a long wait. -NAO, you're a sight for sure eyes.

I think this -NAO block has legs into November from what I've been analyzing.  

[Thunder98]

Cold Snowy Winter for the Eastern half of the US due to El Nino and Solar Minimum?

 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/22/weak-sun-and-el-nino-events-may-create-a-colder-and-snowier-than-normal-winter-season-in-much-of-the-eastern-half-of-the-usa/

[Andie]

More rain on the way. Thanks Hurricane Willa.

 

45" rain so far and 20" over normal. We have 2 months of potential rain running up to the deep freeze months.

 

Could we see snow this year ?

[Niko]

Currently sunny and crisp w temps near 40F. Nice, dry week coming up. Temps below normal w readings holding in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

 

EC could be impacted by a coastal storm w snows inland. Tbh, Oct snows have usually been followed by lame winters, so I prefer I see snow IMBY in late Nov.

[Hawkeye]

If anyone was considering subscribing to a models site for the winter, weathermodels.com, Ryan Maue's company, is about to go up in price again.  It is currently $10 per month, but is rising to $13 on October 30th.  However, if you subscribe by the 29th you can remain at $10 per month.

[jaster220]

GOES-East satellite captured this infrared view of what looks like a frozen blanket over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.

 

(Winter 2013-14)

 

 

You can see the relentless WSW flow of bitter air across S Lk Michigan that brought constant LES. Felt just like my 7 yrs living in the Northlands of The Mitt 

[jaster220]

GFS does not look white for SMI, but it does look active thru it's range, including this interesting clipper-like system that curves right around The Mitt. Only 120 hrs out, so this may be somewhat realistic

 

[jaster220]

Wow. New England getting slammed this pm by their own sneak attack storm. Complete with twisters and water spouts. This is a good sign for dynamic systems going forward.

 

https://twitter.com/ryanbretonwx/status/1054863467402932225?s=21

 

 

[Niko]

You can see the relentless WSW flow of bitter air across S Lk Michigan that brought constant LES. Felt just like my 7 yrs living in the Northlands of The Mitt 

Hopefully, we can see that again this upcoming Winter.

[Niko]

GFS does not look white for SMI, but it does look active thru it's range, including this interesting clipper-like system that curves right around The Mitt. Only 120 hrs out, so this may be somewhat realistic

 

20181023 18zGfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-150.gif

That is such a great track for us, had it been deeper in the Autumn season, some nice snow accumulations would have fallen. A sign of a pattern developing?!

[Niko]

Currently, partly cloudy and dipping into the upper 20s tanite to near 30F. Colder tomorrow nite w readings falling in the mid 20s.

[OKwx2k4]

We have a fair bit riding on what happens here and after. Here is hoping for a second positive pattern realignment. Would like to see the low over the conus migrate back to the Arklatex area or see a handoff back to the southern branch, as in past parts of this pattern. Still a lot to watch.

 

[westMJim]

With clear skies here the current temperature in MBY is 26.2° with a moderate amount of frost. As is the case many times with clear skies and calm winds the temperature here at my house is several degrees cooler then at the airport.  Here in my yard the low so far it the current temperature and at the airport the low so far is 29 and the current reading there is 30°. One item of note is that while this is the 3rd hard freeze here in the last 6 days there are still a ton of leaves on the trees here.  Some with moderate color and still many that are still green. And there are still many rose bushes that are having their last rose of summer is full bloom, 

[Niko]

Sunny, crisp and rather cold w temps at 36F. Lows last night dipped down to a frosty 28F. Highs not budging outta the mid 40s today and lows in the 20s.

[Niko]

Color status for MBY is at near peak. Its looking marvelous w all these colors going on. One windstorm and they are all gone.

[Andie]

Hurricane Willa remnants have dropped 2 more inches of rain on my home today over about 11 hrs.

 

Ground totally saturated. Lake having to release some of its over flow. Two months and a week to go to the Yr. end rain total. Wow!

[jaster220]

Color status for MBY is at near peak. Its looking marvelous w all these colors going on. One windstorm and they are all gone.

 

Some trees are colorful over here, but others are either dropping leafs that are green/brown, or (in the country mostly) they've just gone brown without any real color. Noticing even more bare trees too, but like WestMJim said, there's still some stubborn ones clinging to green.    I've had frost on my car windshield at least the past 3 or 4 mornings. 

[jaster220]

Hurricane Willa remnants have dropped 2 more inches of rain on my home today over about 11 hrs.

 

Ground totally saturated. Lake having to release some of its over flow. Two months and a week to go to the Yr. end rain total. Wow!

 

You've gotten crazy wet down there. Like extremes! Hopefully you have a cold version in a couple months.

[CentralNebWeather]

Moderate rain falling for the last hour with a temp of 47. Latest forecast has upped amounts here to around 1”. It is knocking the rest of the leaves off the trees.

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies came in and they have considerably flipped warmer as we head into November.  So, we have the CFSv2 weeklies trend warmer across the Eastern CONUS for Week 2 and the Euro weeklies which hang on to the colder look from Monday's run.  Now, if for some reason the Euro weeklies trend warmer in today's run, then I think we will have to look for a pull back out of this colder pattern which fits some of the analogs for November.  

 

JMA Week 2 temps...very wet signal across the majority of our sub forum...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201810.D2412_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201810.D2412_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...ol' fashioned Indian Summer???

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D2412_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D2412_gl0.png

 

 

In my personal opinion, I think the model is a bit to strong with the EC ridge for Week 2.  While I do believe there will be one present, I don't see it infiltrate the MW/GL's as it shows above.  If major Typhoon Yutu does NOT re-curve, then yes, a stronger ridge will blossom in the East Week 2 that may create a very amplified pattern like we saw to open October.

 

However, based on what I'm seeing of the GEFS 10mb forecasts, they argue cold pushing south across the central CONUS Week 2.  Some subtle signs the PV may be getting perturbed Week 2 are encouraging as we get closer to Winter.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

By the end of the month, what has been a long term long wave trough anchored near the Hudson Bay region since about the 12th, it will be replaced by a Hudson Bay ridge which fits where the 30mb warming has occurred across eastern Canada in late Sept/early Oct.  I think this signal is important for several reasons and that will encourage a lot of blocking across Canada.  If the EC ridge is present, along with blocking continuing across NE Canada while having the NE PAC present, then this will likely park a trough across the central CONUS to open November.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Last night's 00z EPS showing this potential quite well...I got my eye on a big storm to open up November somewhere from the deep south and track up towards the GL's.

 

 

 

@ Okwx, this may be a Arklatex track you have been looking for...

 

 

[westMJim]

If we warm up in November think of it as "Indian Summer" This AM here I have had a low of 27.1° so far with clear skies and a calm wind. This is the 4th time it has gotten below 30 here in the last week.  But there are still a lot of leaves left on the trees for some reason the leaves are hanging on this fall. Should also note that while there is some color it is not the best.

[OKwx2k4]

By the end of the month, what has been a long term long wave trough anchored near the Hudson Bay region since about the 12th, it will be replaced by a Hudson Bay ridge which fits where the 30mb warming has occurred across eastern Canada in late Sept/early Oct. I think this signal is important for several reasons and that will encourage a lot of blocking across Canada. If the EC ridge is present, along with blocking continuing across NE Canada while having the NE PAC present, then this will likely park a trough across the central CONUS to open November.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Last night's 00z EPS showing this potential quite well...I got my eye on a big storm to open up November somewhere from the deep south and track up towards the GL's.

 

 

 

@ Okwx, this may be a Arklatex track you have been looking for...

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2018102500/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_9. png

 

Man, If I could just call out snow and see it happen like that. We'd be all set. Hard to give a model credit for that one when they seem to be running 100 percent at odds with each other about every other day. I'd have to lean to transient warm up down here, followed by returning cold blast, ec ridge. Nice pattern progression.

[Andrew NE]

Does anyone if you have to get a subscription to weather2020 now, nothing shows up on the comment discussions anymore this past week?

[Clinton]

Does anyone if you have to get a subscription to weather2020 now, nothing shows up on the comment discussions anymore this past week?

 

No it's free

[Niko]

Some trees are colorful over here, but others are either dropping leafs that are green/brown, or (in the country mostly) they've just gone brown without any real color. Noticing even more bare trees too, but like WestMJim said, there's still some stubborn ones clinging to green.    I've had frost on my car windshield at least the past 3 or 4 mornings. 

Yup, I still see also very few trees here that still wanna hang on to some green. So annoying.

[Niko]

It got mighty cold last night as temps fell to a BRRRRRR 25F. Coldest so far this season.

[Niko]

November pattern I think relaxes in terms of temps and takes me to near normal after being BN in October for so long. Big time trough sets in by end of November w very cold air rushing in and continuing into December w lots of snow potential IMBY and I am sure for others as well, although, it all depends on the storm track.