October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

My hood looks like it got leaf bombed after this weekend's clipper system. They came down soaked and just plastered to everything! 

I know what ya mean......same here.

[St Paul Storm]

Nice looking trough on the models with a storm early/mid next week. Euro brings quite the snowstorm to the western lakes. Lots of spread but we might have something to track very soon. Maybe.

 

Edit: I failed to realize this should have gone in the Nov thread.

[westMJim]

At this time it looks like we are heading towards a possible weak western/central based El Nino. And as there seems to be a lot of concern as to what kind of snow fall we will see this winter I thought it would be interesting to see how much snow Grand Rapids received in past weak El Nino’s the list does not separate the western/central form the central/eastern one but here is a list of past weak El Nino’s and the November snow fall leading up to that winter.  Note that in at least 3 of the of the winters November snow fall was a large part of that winters total snow fall. Here is the list with the season, the November snow fall, Novembers mean temperature and the total snowfall for that winter season.

1952/53 November snow fall 6.4” November mean temperature 42.3° season total snow fall 42.3”
1953/54 November snow fall 7.4” November mean temperature 39.9° Season total snow fall 78.3”

1958/59 November snow fall 8.6” November mean temperature 40.6° Season total snow fall 104.7”

1969/70 November snow fall 14.3” November mean temperature 33.5° Season total snow fall 84.4”

1976/77 November snow fall 8.5” November mean temperature 31.4° Season total snow fall 70.8”

1977/78 November snow fall 10.6” November mean temperature 39.5° Season total snow fall 84.6”

1979/80 November snow fall 9.4” November mean temperature 40.5° Season total snow fall 48.8”

2004/05 November snow fall 10.3” November mean temperature 40.5° Season total snow fall 81.7”

2006/07 November snow fall 0.3” November mean temperature 41.3° Season total snow fall 83.3”

2014/15 November snow fall 31.0” November mean temperature 34.3° season total snow fall 78.1”

All of the above is the from GRR and might not relate to other locations.

[jaster220]

When you're active, you're ACTIVE. Man, did this happen fast!

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
327 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-302130-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, Hart,
Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, Alma,
Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland,
Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek,
and Jackson
327 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018


Rain showers and thunderstorms will move to the east northeast at 40
mph across Southwest Lower Michigan into the evening. Lightning will
be the main hazard, with pea size hail and wind gusts to 30 mph
possible.

$

[Niko]

When you're active, you're ACTIVE. Man, did this happen fast!

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

327 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

 

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-302130-

Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-

Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-

Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-

Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, Hart,

Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, Alma,

Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland,

Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek,

and Jackson

327 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

 

 

Rain showers and thunderstorms will move to the east northeast at 40

mph across Southwest Lower Michigan into the evening. Lightning will

be the main hazard, with pea size hail and wind gusts to 30 mph

possible.

 

$

I better check my local forecast.

 

And I found this on my forecast.....

PER TWC:

 

Isolated thunderstorms this evening... Scattered showers will lift through Southeast Michigan over the next couple of hours. Brief moderate or heavy rain will be possible along with a couple rumbles of thunder. Storm motion will be from southwest to northeast at 35 mph.

 

[Niko]

Currently 53F and cloudy skies w rain on the way.

[Madtown]

pretty good storms with a bunch of thunder rolled through here. .3" of rain.

[Niko]

Raining now and breezy conditions as well w temps falling into the 40s. No thunder or lightning reported. Its a very raw evening outdoors for anyone venturing out there this evening.

[Niko]

Just received a thunderstorm over my area. Heavy rainfall also being reported. Its a small cell. No wind.

[Tom]

Happy Halloween everyone!  Hope ya'll enjoy the day with your kiddos walking around the neighborhood collecting candy.  Nature seems to be cooperating albeit a bit cool for the time of year.  It's one of the warmer mornings during the second half of the month (49F) which says a lot about how chilly it's been.  Not a bad day shaping up around here with seasonal temps.  Nice way to finish off a rather wet month!

[Money]

Happy Halloween everyone! Hope ya'll enjoy the day with your kiddos walking around the neighborhood collecting candy. Nature seems to be cooperating albeit a bit cool for the time of year. It's one of the warmer mornings during the second half of the month (49F) which says a lot about how chilly it's been. Not a bad day shaping up around here with seasonal temps. Nice way to finish off a rather wet month!

Our city already had it on Sunday which I think is pretty stupid

[westMJim]

Happy Halloween! Here at my house I recorded 1.17” of rain yesterday.  For the month, GRR has recorded 5.36” this is the 3^rd wet October in a row with last year coming in with 9.69” and there was 6.15” back in 2016. Yesterdays official high at GRR was 59° it has not reached 60° at Grand Rapids now since October 14^th Odds favor it reaching at least 60 (or better) in November as there have only been 9 years in Grand Rapids recorded history where it did not reach 60 or better in November. The last time it happened was in 1997. The winter of 1997/98 was not a cold or snowy winter as only 59.8” fell here in GR and each winter month was warmer that average. If Grand Rapids fails to reach 60 in November and December I will let you know the last 60° day of all of the affected years.

[gabel23]

Our city already had it on Sunday which I think is pretty stupid

That's crazy why is that, just so it's on a weekend? Has it always been that way? 

[Andie]

Looks like a chilly and very rainy Halloween here. Temps in the low 60's and rain fir the next day and again Sunday.

 

62* cloudy, rain this afternoon and evening.

[Niko]

Its a cloudy, gloomy morning out there w temps holding in the 40s. Things should dry up within the afternoon hours.

 

Edit: Some really chilly air, if not cold arrives towards the middle of the month w snowshowers in my forecast for several days. Temps then barely touch the 40 degree mark.

[Tom]

Our city already had it on Sunday which I think is pretty stupid

I think that brings the fun out of it. It’s more authentic enjoying it the day of Halloween.

[CentralNebWeather]

I teach high school so not a big deal, but many elementary and middle school teachers have wondered if Halloween could ever be moved to the last Friday or Saturday of October.  When Halloween falls during the week, the next day at school is tough for kids that may have stayed up way to late or ate months worth of sugar that evening.  I usually have students ask me if we have school the day after Halloween, even though we always do.  Those might be HS students out causing some "mischief".  I was perfect, ha ha, so I would have never thought about having some "fun" on Halloween.  

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and mild (actually near average), it just feels mild because we have been BN for such a long stretch of time. Temps holding at 55F. The norm is 54F.

[westMJim]

Just got back in from a nice long walk. With the sun out and light winds it feels rather warm out there. Also the sun really brings out the color on the trees as my area is now out if full fall color. While later than average I think the last two days the color here is the best it has been in many years. The current temperature here with that sun is 56° 

[Niko]

Partly cloudy and temps at 44F for kids being outdoors for candy. Not too shabby.

[CentralNebWeather]

Mid 40’s here in Central Nebraska at 7 pm. Lots of trick or treaters out and about. Much different weather than October 31, 1991. We were in the middle of a massive blizzard that delayed Halloween for over a week. Man that was awesome. I was just starting college at The University of Nebraska at Kearney and we got several days off, unheard of at the time for a college in Nebraska to ever close.

[jaster220]

At this time it looks like we are heading towards a possible weak western/central based El Nino. And as there seems to be a lot of concern as to what kind of snow fall we will see this winter I thought it would be interesting to see how much snow Grand Rapids received in past weak El Nino’s the list does not separate the western/central form the central/eastern one but here is a list of past weak El Nino’s and the November snow fall leading up to that winter.  Note that in at least 3 of the of the winters November snow fall was a large part of that winters total snow fall. Here is the list with the season, the November snow fall, Novembers mean temperature and the total snowfall for that winter season.

1952/53 November snow fall 6.4” November mean temperature 42.3° season total snow fall 42.3”

1953/54 November snow fall 7.4” November mean temperature 39.9° Season total snow fall 78.3”

1958/59 November snow fall 8.6” November mean temperature 40.6° Season total snow fall 104.7”

1969/70 November snow fall 14.3” November mean temperature 33.5° Season total snow fall 84.4”

1976/77 November snow fall 8.5” November mean temperature 31.4° Season total snow fall 70.8”

1977/78 November snow fall 10.6” November mean temperature 39.5° Season total snow fall 84.6”

1979/80 November snow fall 9.4” November mean temperature 40.5° Season total snow fall 48.8”

2004/05 November snow fall 10.3” November mean temperature 40.5° Season total snow fall 81.7”

2006/07 November snow fall 0.3” November mean temperature 41.3° Season total snow fall 83.3”

2014/15 November snow fall 31.0” November mean temperature 34.3° season total snow fall 78.1”

All of the above is the from GRR and might not relate to other locations.

 

Thx for this list/post westMJim. What is GR's normal seasonal total snowfall again? Looks like only 2 real duds in that batch, so an 80% favorable snow signal from weak Nino's there. Nice

[westMJim]

Thx for this list/post westMJim. What is GR's normal seasonal total snowfall again? Looks like only 2 real duds in that batch, so an 80% favorable snow signal from weak Nino's there. Nice

Average is around 75" The average has gone up in recent years not sure if its because of more snow fall or changes in reporting location.