October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Michael is now sub 930

This beast is very close to a cat 5.

 

Amazing, that it came from outta nowhere.

 

Luckily, residents up the EC will be spared any affects from Micheal, as upper level winds are mediocre to support any movement north and or strengthening. Out to sea pls.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, Michael popped out of the typical late-season Central American gyre.  Originally, it wasn't expected to be a huge deal.  I remember the euro model originally had a typical sloppy tropical storm hitting the coast.

 

One major positive is it appears the center will hit east of Panama City.  West of Panama City would have been devastating.

[St Paul Storm]

Michael is now sub 930

This beast is very close to a cat 5.

 

Amazing, that it came from outta nowhere.

 

Luckily, residents up the EC will be spared any affects from Micheal, as upper level winds are mediocre to support any movement north and or strengthening. Out to sea pls.

People in the Carolinas might disagree with your last statement about sparing the EC. Parts of the areas hit by Florence are going to get some unwanted rain. Any rain is bad at this point.

[Niko]

People in the Carolinas might disagree with your last statement about sparing the EC. Parts of the areas hit by Florence are going to get some unwanted rain. Any rain is bad at this point.

True, any rains are unwanted there in that vicinity. I have friends who live in N and S. Carolina's, so, ofc, last thing they need is Micheal's remnants to affect them. Unfortunately, my house in NY got damage by a weak tornado that passed through the area and destroyed my roof last month. Had to fly there the next day to check it out and deal w my Ins. Luckily, nobody was hurt, in case you are interesting in knowing. Any favorable conditions pushing Micheal northward would have me concerned. So, if the Carolina's disagree w that, then, so be it.

[Niko]

71F is my forecasted LOW. Sitting at 74F outside, and 75F inside. Took an extra long walk at dusk with my wife knowing it'd likely be our last "summer evening stroll" with shorts and no jackets needed. For a small town, Marshall's known for people on the streets and there were plenty this evening. The city has already shut the fountain down for the cold season. That usually will draw a crowd of it's own on a nice warm evening like this. Some leaf drop is beginning to be noticeable and I saw my first person using a leaf blower (aka lazy dude's rake). In about 10 days the piles will be 3 foot high in the streets. We've got those massive old maples lining many of the streets in this town, one that is more than 350 yrs old. It must've been 180 already when the first settlers founded this town in 1832. Back then this region was known for its bogs and swamplands along the Kalamazoo river basin. Cranberries grew in abundance, and pioneers fought off wolfs, bears, Lynx, and Cougars just to name the largest predators. Only the Cougars survived to this day. I glimpsed the long tail of one on the outskirts of Battle Creek. They mostly hang there as it's a jungle ova there. K, that was j/k. BC proper is a human jungle, but the big cats live in the forested regions surrounding that city, not here in Marshall that I know of. 

It was an absolutely gorgeous evening. Totally amazing for this time of the year.

[Niko]

Micheal, now at 150mph. DANG!

[jaster220]

@ St Paul, your call was spot on!  Hurricane Michael is now a beastly Cat 4...

 

I had also mentioned that JB's expectations were such. But even his normally "bold" call looks to have come up short this time. Is this a sign of how southern systems will go this winter?? Out-performing expectations. We certainly know that was the case with the Cleveland Super bomb.

 

We will probably be seeing many Freeze Watches hoisted later today for tomorrow night across the MW/GL's...if not this weekend, Chicago may get in on it next week.  

 

 

The protected Mitt. Those warm lakes do their work early in the season. Just shows how cold some of those waves were back in the 70's to be dropping into the mid-20's here in the first week of Oct!

 

I'm using FF broswer Tom and your images aren't showing, just the file names. Do you know why?

[jaster220]

Micheal, now at 150mph. DANG!

 

  This may end up being the strongest landfall in the Gulf since Camille hit as a CAT5 in '69. She leveled forests 200 miles inland

[Niko]

  This may end up being the strongest landfall in the Gulf since Camille hit as a CAT5 in '69. She leveled forests 200 miles inland

Indeed.

 

Info from Wikipedia:

 

Hurricane Camille was the second-most intense tropical cyclone to strike the United States on record. The most intense storm of the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season, Camille formed as a tropical depression on August 14 south of Cuba from a long-tracked tropical wave.

Total fatalities: 259

Date: August 14, 1969 – August 22, 1969

Category: Category 5 Hurricane (SSHWS)

Damage: $1.43 billion (1969 USD)

Lowest pressure: 900 mbar (hPa); 26.58 inHg

Affected areas: Cuba, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, East Coast

[Niko]

I had also mentioned that JB's expectations were such. But even his normally "bold" call looks to have come up short this time. Is this a sign of how southern systems will go this winter?? Out-performing expectations. We certainly know that was the case with the Cleveland Super bomb.

 

 

The protected Mitt. Those warm lakes do their work early in the season. Just shows how cold some of those waves were back in the 70's to be dropping into the mid-20's here in the first week of Oct!

 

I'm using FF broswer Tom and your images aren't showing, just the file names. Do you know why?

Might be possible. If that's the case, look out.

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

Watch out for possible "Tornado Threat" tanite. Strong CF coming could trigger some severe weather.

[Tom]

I had also mentioned that JB's expectations were such. But even his normally "bold" call looks to have come up short this time. Is this a sign of how southern systems will go this winter?? Out-performing expectations. We certainly know that was the case with the Cleveland Super bomb.

 

 

The protected Mitt. Those warm lakes do their work early in the season. Just shows how cold some of those waves were back in the 70's to be dropping into the mid-20's here in the first week of Oct!

 

I'm using FF broswer Tom and your images aren't showing, just the file names. Do you know why?

I’m not sure why the images aren’t showing up. Maybe ask iFred for assistance.

[Stormgeek]

Tons of lightning in the eye wall of Micheal being reported... This is a monster. Looks like it will hit as a CAT 4 and penetrate CAT 3 winds deep into the panhandle. Godspeed to those in its path. 

[Thunder98]

About to make landfall near Panama City Beach!    

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Tyndall Air Force Base about to be engulfed. Western edge of the eye wall might pass overhead. Yikes.

 

Pressure down to 919. Incredible.

[bud2380]

Meanwhile, winter storm warnings for parts of ND.  Already 8.5" from one report.  Totals expected 6-12" per NWS headlines.

 

 

1129 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 W LITCHVILLE 46.66N 98.23W
10/10/2018 M8.5 INCH Barnes ND CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOW CONTINUING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.93 INCHES. BRANCHES
OF 4 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER BROKEN OFF APPLE TREE.

[james1976]

GFS wants to ridge us in the medium-long range. Those are potent cold shots before then. Growing season should be done as well as any bugs!

[Minny_Weather]

GFS wants to ridge us in the medium-long range. Those are potent cold shots before then. Growing season should be done as well as any bugs!

According to Euro weeklies we could be ridged for most of the rest of the month.

[Andie]

Wow, Tyndall AFB has recorded 128mph.

The base is largely evacuated.

 

Wind gusts at the center have hit 175 mph.

Maximum sustained winds 155mph.

[bud2380]

Any idea what the highest recorded sustained winds and gusts that have been recorded on land?  The eye is still holding together strong despite being well on shore by now.  Crazy.  

[GDR]

That’s one big ridge on the weeklies!

[james1976]

Thats gonna suck if we suddenly end up with a monster ridge.

[bud2380]

Euro showing significant snows in Kansas on Sunday.  Still shows a little bit of snow into Iowa on Friday.  I wouldn't expect anything more than rain mixed with snow though based on temperature profiles.  

 

[jaster220]

WTH?? What's a tornadoonalsonville ?

 

A little hectic at the NHC local NWS offic or what??

 

Extreme Wind Warning

Severe Weather StatementNational Weather Service Tallahassee FLIssued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL531 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018ALC069-GAC087-099-201-253-102230-/O.CON.KTAE.EW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-181010T2230Z/Houston AL-Decatur GA-Miller GA-Early GA-Seminole GA-531 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018...AN EXTREME WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT/530 PMCDT/ FOR NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON...NORTH CENTRAL DECATUR...MILLER...SOUTHERN EARLY AND NORTHERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...At 524 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicatedextreme winds, associated with the eyewall of hurricane Michaelmoving northeast at 20 mph. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if atornadoonalsonville, was approaching and move immediately to thesafe room in your shelter. Take action now to protect your life!&&A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT/100 AM CDT/ forsouthwestern Georgia.LAT...LON 3129 8464 3126 8464 3126 8460 3124 8454      3081 8466 3105 8496 3105 8509 3131 8528TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 207DEG 16KT 3102 8501$$PETERSON

[Andie]

Is that something like a Sharknado?

[Andie]

Any idea what the highest recorded sustained winds and gusts that have been recorded on land?  The eye is still holding together strong despite being well on shore by now.  Crazy.

 

I don't know if this is the highest but these are hurricane stats.

 

[Andrew NE]

The ridge showing up on medium/long range models is not what we are all looking for. October started off on fire for a new pattern, let’s hope it doesn’t turn into a dud by months end.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Euro showing significant snows in Kansas on Sunday.  Still shows a little bit of snow into Iowa on Friday.  I wouldn't expect anything more than rain mixed with snow though based on temperature profiles.  

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_132.png

Holy lol. 

[Minny_Weather]

The ridge showing up on medium/long range models is not what we are all looking for. October started off on fire for a new pattern, let’s hope it doesn’t turn into a dud by months end.

When you think about it this isn't really much different from last year. Significant cooldown with rain and first freezes the first couple weeks of the month, then ridged the rest of the month. For the whole state basically this is a copy of last year. Didn't Western Nebraska get snow last October as well?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

When you think about it this isn't really much different from last year. Significant cooldown with rain and first freezes the first couple weeks of the month, then ridged the rest of the month. For the whole state basically this is a copy of last year. Didn't Western Nebraska get snow last October as well?

How is this a carbon copy lol. I'd say it was reversed. We saw our first flakes around Halloween last year! We are also getting colder much earlier.

[jaster220]

  Michael was potent. May take a bit to determine just how potent vs say Andrew. But..

 

[jaster220]

No words..

 

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1OyJAQWOqyoJb?t=6s

[Tom]

Woah, it's quite a bit blustery and chilly this morning.  Temps are still dropping into the mid 40's across N IL, while those to our NW are in the 30's.  This front when it cycles through should produce a massive Arctic outbreak.  Looking forward to it. 

 

Meantime, the JMA weeklies are in and they show the west coast ridge trying to push eastward out into the Plains/MW states by Week 2, but does it last???  No, actually, the NW NAMER ridge fires up again as rising motion develops across the central PAC during Weeks 2-4 as the El Nino conditions take over.

 

Week 2 temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201810.D1012_gl2.png

 

 

Weeks 3-4...it also looks real wet/story east of the Rockies...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D1012_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D1012_gl0.png

[Tom]

@ Andie, where exactly are you located in TX???  Nearly all of the global models are showing some snow into parts of KS/NW OK/TX Panhandle this weekend from Sergio's remnants.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Diving into the longer range pattern, it's going to be tough to get a trough into the NE PAC when the waters are literally blow torching. The ridge tries to push eastward across the central CONUS as the Aleutian Low, which is forecast to track almost due west/east across the N PAC, until it reaches the NE PAC "road block" and tracks due north. This is a very important clue as to why I don’t foresee any long term ridging in the extended. BTW, this system is on my calendar around Halloween but I think it will target farther east and south as it stands now. IMO, there will be a transitory period or "pull back" sometime during Week 2, but all indications to me are that the pattern will remain amplified across N.A. through the rest of the month.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201810.D1012_gls.png

[james1976]

First hard freeze expected here tonight. Even this morning it got down to mid 30s despite the wind and stratus.

[St Paul Storm]

Few flurries this morning on my drive into work. Currently 34F but with winds of 16mph and gusts of 30mph the wind chill is a balmy 24F. Feels awesome.

[westMJim]

Here at my house I recorded 1.17” of rain yesterday. The current temperature here is 49° with cloudy skies. This should be the high mark for the mean temperature for the month of October. The current mean for Grand Rapids is 62.2° that is good for a departure of +7.5°. We will have to see how this month ends.   And we will have to see if this is just a short two to three week cool down and back to warm again or a longer lasting pattern change.  There were brief cool downs in June, July, August and even September. We shall see if this is just a brief cool down or a long lasting one.

 

When my sister-in law was still alive and we made many trips to SW Florida we would take the western route Cape Coral. That is down US 31 to I 65 to US 231 to I 10 to US 98 down towards Tampa. Anyway my first nights (on the way down) stop would be Bowling Green, KY Nice town with a lot of good places to eat. And the 2^nd night (on the way down) would be Marianna FL. (for some reason the timing was just right) this is a small town with several motels just off I 10 while not as good a place to eat as Bowling Green is there (were) are several restaurants there as well.  Any way even thought Marianna is will inland it took a bad beating from Hurricane Michael. Reports are the eye passed right over the city. At the airport winds were reported as 101 MPH.  I am sure there was a lot of damage as there are a lot of wood houses there as well as a lot of big old trees around town.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think we bottomed out this morning at 25 or 26 degrees.  I saw a 26 reading about 7 AM and a digital reading of 25.4 degrees.  Hard freeze for sure and even colder Sunday night/Monday morning?  Snow flakes also?  I may get some but looks like a little more south of me.

[Andie]

@ Andie, where exactly are you located in TX??? Nearly all of the global models are showing some snow into parts of KS/NW OK/TX Panhandle this weekend from Sergio's remnants.

 

 

 

HimTom, Thanks for this information! I live just SW of Ft. Worth. My area tends to get the Northers that plunge south from the Rockies and Canada.

The snow in the Panhandle this early is mind blowing. I've been reading of the massive ag losses in Canada and in the north of the US. Some climatologists are now finally opening up and saying it's winding up for the pitch and 2 yrs from now we'll see the deeper cold hit the globe. The quiet sun, according to them, will send us into a cold period that could last till 2040-45. All the erratic weather are the early signs.

 

I'm not a climatologist, but things are different here in Tx this year.

Two extremely hot months (high of 115*) followed by weeks of rain and cooler weather.

It's been unreal here.

That's why I'm following this forum to see what you guys think. Very interesting bunch here.