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October 2018 Observations and Discussion


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Still raining from DFW down to far SW Texas   It's getting rather damp around here.  Importing some new problems in the neighborhood!  

N/C IL ---- Friday, October 12th. Snowflakes falling before lunch.   It was 87 degrees on Monday. Happy Fall.

Northern Wi

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Some good quotes I pulled from DMX afternoon discussion:

Temperature-wise, Central Iowa appears to have skipped ahead 30 days
as forecast temperatures for the next several days resemble those
typically seen in in central Iowa during mid to late November. The
Des Moines
metro also reported its first snowflakes of the season
this morning. For Des Moines, October 14 is the date of the first
average
trace or more of snowfall... so we are actually not too far
ahead of that date.


The record coldest max temperature for both Des Moines and Waterloo on 10/14 is 45
degrees... a record which we may
likely break.

Monday morning will likely be the coldest day of the season for most of
Iowa, with low temperatures nearing the low 20s in northern Iowa

A classic rex block pattern locks in over western CONUS. This will
support dry conditions over Iowa for much of next week. With the

thermal ridge boosted with the rex block, the arctic air machine
will be pushed northeast of Iowa, meaning temperatures will be cold
(as NW
flow continues), but only 10 or so degrees below normal.
#ItCouldBeWorse.



 

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Some good quotes I pulled from DMX afternoon discussion:

 

Temperature-wise, Central Iowa appears to have skipped ahead 30 days

as forecast temperatures for the next several days resemble those

typically seen in in central Iowa during mid to late November. The

Des Moines

metro

also reported its first snowflakes of the season

this morning. For Des Moines, October 14 is the date of the first

average

trace

or more of snowfall... so we are actually not too far

ahead of that date.

 

The record coldest max temperature for both Des Moines and Waterloo on 10/14 is 45

degrees... a record which we may

likely

break.

 

Monday morning will

likely

be the coldest day of the season for most of

Iowa, with low temperatures nearing the low 20s in northern Iowa

A classic

rex block

pattern locks in over western

CONUS

. This will

support dry conditions over Iowa for much of next week. With the

thermal

ridge

boosted with the

rex block

, the arctic air machine

will be pushed northeast of Iowa, meaning temperatures will be cold

(as NW

flow

continues), but only 10 or so degrees below

normal

.

#ItCouldBeWorse.

 

 

I love the reports you folks up there are giving, along with the NWS stuff and records/stats. May be a lot of that type of stuff to post this year.

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Special Weather Statement from NWS on Okla. and Tx. Panhandle Snow,/Freeze

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ama&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Saw my first flakes at about 6:00 this evening! They were very light but flakes nonetheless. Are we goin right to Winter?!

While I did not see my first flakes yet, there was a report in downtown Chicago of flurries. The heavier stuff was flying a bit farther south across LaSalle into N IN.  Today's disturbance tracking across the MW will go down as the "First Flakes" of the season for many of us.

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Is it just me or is the GFS slowly trending colder mid-long range? Might be correcting itself and aligning to what Tom has been talkin for a while now.

Yes I do believe it is as well. It does look pretty dry as well after the Sunday system. We need to dry out after all the rain the last 2 weeks but as we all know this time of year the pattern development is critical too.

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It's the coldest morning of the season here this morning (31F).  The sunrise is now at 7:00am, as the amount of daylight continues to dwindle each and every day.  As an early riser, the amount of darkness is very noticeable ever since we flipped the calendar into Sept when the sun rose a little past 6:00am.

 

In any event, yesterday was a darn chilly day with temps only reaching 42F at ORD and flakes flying and accumulating down state, albeit in minor.  The historical date for measurable snow at ORD is Nov 16th, so to see folks down near Peoria/LaSalle/Champaign see minor accumulations on Oct 12th is certainly a leap ahead of the norms this year.  

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With clear skies the low here at my house was 32.4° some very light frost on the roof tops and tops of cars. No frost at ground level. The low so far at GRR looks to be 38° this is the coldest low since April 30th that is 166 days. April 30th was the last time it got to 32 or lower at GRR.

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It's the coldest morning of the season here this morning (31F).  The sunrise is now at 7:00am, as the amount of daylight continues to dwindle each and every day.  As an early riser, the amount of darkness is very noticeable ever since we flipped the calendar into Sept when the sun rose a little past 6:00am.

 

In any event, yesterday was a darn chilly day with temps only reaching 42F at ORD and flakes flying and accumulating down state, albeit in minor.  The historical date for measurable snow at ORD is Nov 16th, so to see folks down near Peoria/LaSalle/Champaign see minor accumulations on Oct 12th is certainly a leap ahead of the norms this year.  

Looks like the earliest first snow fall here at Grand Rapids of one inch or more was on October 12, 2006 when 2" fell. The most snow fall here at Grand Rapids for the month of October was back in 1967 when 8.4" fell. With 8.2" of that falling on October 27th   in October of 1997 here in Grand Rapids 2.4" (also on Oct 27th) fell but in the small town of Coopersville where I worked at that time 6" fell with a lot of thunder and lighting with a lot of trees down. Last year 0.4" fell on Oct 31

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There was a time when we used to go to TC area for my birthday (the first week of November) and there have been years when there were still leaves on the trees (in town) to years when there was several inches of snow on the ground. We don't go up there now for my birthday as it cost a lot more then it once did to stay up there.  But that said Enjoy your stay.

 

And that'd be "off season rates" for your b-day. TC has always been pricey that's for sure. Before I moved here in Sept of '90 I mostly stayed in the winter and thus avoided peak-season rates. Then after I moved I came up and stayed at a friend's place for free a couple times. Just recently been coming up again as a "tourist" and got sticker shocked yet again. Weekends during July and August are ridiculous so we came in late June. Having lived here 7 yrs it was hard to justify paying that for a couple nights at a hotel. About the same as you'd pay for a top-notch hotel downtown Chicago. This all started years ago when resort owners had to make 80% of their living off the very short warm season up here. It's much more year-round now then back then what with snowmobiling, casinos, etc. Ofc, there's also the Chicago connection, the LA connection, and the wealthy retiree connection (Mansion across the street for instance is owned by some retired GM exec). All these things drive the economy here along "The Gold Coast" of The Mitt. I always came north for winter skiing or summer vacations in the past and was waiting 10 yrs to take my wife (remarried) up north during color tour season since she's not a Michigan native. Finally got the chance here in 2018 and decided to pull the trigger expensive or not. As for our stay, my wife just commented what a wonderful get-away this has been and we've scored tickets to a popular musical at the Playhouse later today. You know what they say about married life, happy wife = happy life. Based on that alone, it's well worth the expense  :lol:. Thx for the well wishes! 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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It's official, ORD had its first Freeze (32F official low) of the year which is right on schedule.  On the way back home from the gym, there was heavy frost on the grass, car tops, rooftops and also a hint of fog in the air.  As I pulled into the neighborhood, chimney's were venting from the houses and with frost on the rooftops, it gave me a visual memory of the day the first Freeze has arrived.

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We had a freeze warning Friday morning and a frost advisory this morning, but neither panned out.  The airport hit 31 Friday morning, but here in the city we only hit the mid 30s.  Last night we only briefly fell into the upper 30s before rising into the low 40s this morning, so no frost.  It looks like a better chance Monday morning behind the snow system.  Much of Iowa should freeze.  I still have four hummingbirds and many of the salvia plants look best this time of year, just before getting killed by freeze.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Remarkable weather up there. It’s going to be quite a winter.

 

We’ve already received 1.50” rain since 8 am.

Lots more to come.

Flash flood warnings everywhere.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Remarkable weather up there. It’s going to be quite a winter.

 

We’ve already received 1.50” rain since 8 am.

Lots more to come.

Flash flood warnings everywhere.

Feel free to keep posting your observations in here btw. As far as most of us are concerned North Texas is Great Plains.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Awesome.

 

Received another 1 inch of rain in the past 2 hrs. Total in North Tx my location - 2.50" and still raining.

Very dark out. Heavy low clouds. A bit of fog.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just had a large ark float past the back patio.

The 7th fairway is now officially a causeway. Water flooding east towards the lake about 1 mi away.

Still pouring

 

Lots of animals aboard. They all waved, sadly no room left for us.

 

High of 77* today then as front pulls through we'll see high 40's through late week.

More heavy rain through Wednesday night.

IMG_3414.JPG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Models are unrelenting with this pattern lasting to the end of the month at least. As someone in a previous post mentioned, (James1976??) trends indicate cooling over the last 3 days of model runs, and there is no evidence at this time to indicate that the cold is going away.

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By the time this cold pattern migrates out over the eastern 3rd and SE of the US, it will already be time to reload and retrograde again. That puts the warm week or so at probably November 1-7(ish?). In other words, after we recycle the parts of the pattern I remember one more time, look out.

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By the time this cold pattern migrates out over the eastern 3rd and SE of the US, it will already be time to reload and retrograde again. That puts the warm week or so at probably November 1-7(ish?). In other words, after we recycle the parts of the pattern I remember one more time, look out.

A warm week this time of year is 60s, so no big deal.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Models are unrelenting with this pattern lasting to the end of the month at least. As someone in a previous post mentioned, (James1976??) trends indicate cooling over the last 3 days of model runs, and there is no evidence at this time to indicate that the cold is going away.

It's fascinating to see this happen and the response from the atmosphere is going to be incredible.  BTW, the window for the N ATL/Greenland Block to pop the last 10 days of the month will have merit.  I'm seeing all the modeling heading towards it.  My goodness, if that block develops in November, this pattern will be in full blown winter mode.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

Obviously, this is a Day 15 map below, but it fits the 10mb/30mb Strat warming idea I have used over the last several years that has proven to work.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

 

Canadian also agrees...

 

gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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It's fascinating to see this happen and the response from the atmosphere is going to be incredible. BTW, the window for the N ATL/Greenland Block to pop the last 10 days of the month will have merit. I'm seeing all the modeling heading towards it. My goodness, if that block develops in November, this pattern will be in full blown winter mode.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

Obviously, this is a Day 15 map below, but it fits the 10mb/30mb Strat warming idea I have used over the last several years that has proven to work.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

 

Canadian also agrees...

 

gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Almost too pretty for words, isn't it.

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The days totals

 

The day's totals. Some areas more and stormier

 

Currently 62*

3.50" rain

 

29.94 in

Visibility 9 mi.

Clouds

Overcast 700 ft

Dew Point 58 °F

Humidity 91%

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Highly doubt we see any accumulations on the grass. That slot is becoming monstrous and then after it looks to just be light snow. 

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Radar continues to die as it approaches here. Lincoln I guess. Starting to doubt that even the airport will see measurable snow. 34.5*F.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Yesterday, I spent most of my afternoon doing yard work. While I was doing so, I had a convo with my neighbord and it struck me, while I was raking the leaves and prepping my lawnmower, I don't recall having to rake my leaves this early in the season. In fact, the city hasn't even sent out the schedule for our leaf pickup! I normally don't rake until maybe very late October, but moreso in November, right before my usual trip to AZ. I thought that was interesting and I agreed with my neighbor that her intuition about this winter being a cold one will be spot on.

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All our members that are experiencing their first measurable snow of the season are getting the rest of us anxious to do the same.  Just finished making a huge pot of chicken/veggie soup to pound all day and watch football.  Happy Sunday all!

 

Oh, not to mention....is the Greenland block gonna pop late month???  This is likely the opportunity this early season to see it happen.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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Goodness. How'd everyone fare with the severe weather down there?

I heard there was some storm damage in Hillsboro, but generally it was the widespread flooding.

3.50" in a morning is quite a lot to deal with in urban areas.

 

Our golf course is technically on a flood plain. However, my house is high and with a wall. I've see it much worse, but it's engineered to drain into the creek behind us in the trees. That flows straight into the lake. So, we're okay. Golfers...not so much. lol

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday, I spent most of my afternoon doing yard work. While I was doing so, I had a convo with my neighbord and it struck me, while I was raking the leaves and prepping my lawnmower, I don't recall having to rake my leaves this early in the season. In fact, the city hasn't even sent out the schedule for our leaf pickup! I normally don't rake until maybe very late October, but moreso in November, right before my usual trip to AZ. I thought that was interesting and I agreed with my neighbor that her intuition about this winter being a cold will be spot on.

I have tons of family in Az. They've been glad to see some rain this year.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I have tons of family in Az. They've been glad to see some rain this year.

My Dad moved there a while ago and my Mom is a legit warm wx snowbird. Where do you have family? We have a place in Fountain Hills, just east of Scottsdale.

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Hurricane Micheal left its mark in Panama City, where rescue workers are still finding bodies. Unreal situation has unfolded there.

 

Speaking of unreal situations, and perhaps this was even a fluke of nature, but Crankyweatherguy applied the EAR to "Nth degree" in calling for a major hurricane to hit FL panhandle 2 weeks before Michael hit. He based it on one of the the re-curving Typhoons off of Japan and placement came crazy close to a dead match of Michael's strike zone. #amazing

 

EARule and Michael.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My Dad moved there a while ago and my Mom is a legit warm wx snowbird. Where do you have family? We have a place in Fountain Hills, just east of Scottsdale.

Further south, Tucson and my husband's uncle is Mayor of Nogales, Last name Doyle. His older brother was also Mayor in the 90's.

The Rendon-Doyle family is this huge family originating in Ireland and Spain.

 

 

BTW, we will see a front roll through this evening.

Temps will begin to drop into the high 40's with rain through till Tuesday A.M.

It's officially Fall. Love it. Trees starting to change. ( and my allergies abating! )

 

Enjoy raking those leaves. Yardwork in the snow will be interesting

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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A nice and sunny mid October day today. After an over night low of 38 here at my house it it now a pleasant 57° The current mean for October at Grand Rapids, MI  is now at 58.5° (+5.5°) that will be going down over the last half on the month.

 A few facts to look forward to for the rest of the month.  The current mean for October at GRR is now at 58.5° (+5.5°) that will be going down over the last half on the month.  The average high/low as of today is 61/42 that will fall to 55/38 by the end of the month.  The average first 32° for Grand Rapids is October 1st (note in the last 30 years the average date is October 6th)  The latest first 32 date is October 28, 1920.   The average first hard freeze (28°) is October 17th  The latest first 28 or colder date is November 22, 2007.  In the last 10 years the first hard freeze has not happened until November 5 times. So while Grand Rapids should see a low of 32 or lower yet this month Grand Rapids may or may not see one of 28 or colder.

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