October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

  Michael was potent. May take a bit to determine just how potent vs say Andrew. But..

 

20181010 Hurricane Michael Rail Cars.png

He was a beast.

[Niko]

Currently at 55F this morning and temps dropping g into the 40s throughout the day.  First frost of the season tomorrow morning w temps between 30-35F.

[Niko]

Looking back at Hurricane Micheal, this one will be studied for years to come. Micheal was a Cat 3 while over central GA for crying out loud. Also, I heard that this storm will be considered as a CAT5 because it was at some point 154mph. Panama City was the hardest hit from what they are saying. Makes me wonder if a CAT5 has ever moved inland and sustained that level for a period of time? Interesting topic to search.

[Thunder98]

Chilly weather in the Midwest today. 21F in Williston, ND! Snow way down in Hays, KS on Sunday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

From NWS Hastings, The first 10 days of October have either been the coldest or second coldest start (several towns included) to the month since records have been kept dating back to 1895.  Amazing stuff.

[gabel23]

From NWS Hastings, The first 10 days of October have either been the coldest or second coldest start (several towns included) to the month since records have been kept dating back to 1895.  Amazing stuff.

If we avoid a major warm up, (which I don't see anything in terms of way above normal) this October could be ranked in the top 5 coldest on record!! 

[CentralNebWeather]

The FV3-GFS has the snow Sunday night/Monday morning farther north stretching into Nebraska and Iowa.  GFS has it farther south and not affecting Nebraska very much at all.  Should be interesting to watch.

[Niko]

The type of damage Micheal did to those residents in FL. is just amazing.

[VMB443]

Mid 40s here in eastern Wisconsin with blustery winds and mostly cloudy skies - this is what a fall day should be like! But not noticing a lot of colors on the trees - some trees almost appear to be dropping their leaves with very little color change though maybe I’m not paying close enough attention.

[Minny_Weather]

Mid 40s here in eastern Wisconsin with blustery winds and mostly cloudy skies - this is what a fall day should be like! But not noticing a lot of colors on the trees - some trees almost appear to be dropping their leaves with very little color change though maybe I’m not paying close enough attention.

Same here regarding the leaves. The wet pattern screwed it up, some trees are yellow but a lot of trees are dropping their leaves either green or purple.

[St Paul Storm]

Pretty disappointing colors on the trees here as well. Some yellows, but mostly a lighter shade of green. Hardly any reds at all. I’d say about 25% of the leaves have already fallen from the trees in my yard.

[CentralNebWeather]

Same here regarding the leaves. The wet pattern screwed it up, some trees are yellow but a lot of trees are dropping their leaves either green or purple.

I was just going to post the same thing.  Lots of trees dropping green leaves.  Some of the poorest color I have seen this far into October in a long time.  It will be interesting what the freeze this morning and the even colder temps Monday morning do to the leaves.  I hope it really bursts the color, we'll see.

[Minny_Weather]

How is this a carbon copy lol. I'd say it was reversed. We saw our first flakes around Halloween last year! We are also getting colder much earlier.

How is it not? Cool, wet pattern with a freeze the first couple weeks of October, followed by a couple weeks of ridging. This October may be a bit colder but other than that it is a carbon copy.

[bud2380]

Both the NAM and 3k NAM are showing some snow falling tomorrow into central IL.

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018101118/027/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

[Andie]

This is just gob smacking amazing.  Too early for this.

[bud2380]

The Sunday system.  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018101118/102/snku_acc.us_c.png

[OKwx2k4]

@ Andie, where exactly are you located in TX??? Nearly all of the global models are showing some snow into parts of KS/NW OK/TX Panhandle this weekend from Sergio's remnants.

 

 

 

HimTom, Thanks for this information! I live just SW of Ft. Worth. My area tends to get the Northers that plunge south from the Rockies and Canada.

The snow in the Panhandle this early is mind blowing. I've been reading of the massive ag losses in Canada and in the north of the US. Some climatologists are now finally opening up and saying it's winding up for the pitch and 2 yrs from now we'll see the deeper cold hit the globe. The quiet sun, according to them, will send us into a cold period that could last till 2040-45. All the erratic weather are the early signs.

 

I'm not a climatologist, but things are different here in Tx this year.

Two extremely hot months (high of 115*) followed by weeks of rain and cooler weather.

It's been unreal here.

That's why I'm following this forum to see what you guys think. Very interesting bunch here.

Glad you're here, friend. You're always welcome in here. May have systems that impact both of us this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

October 2000 analog call, which was a Nina year, is looking like the heads above everything winner this year for the modern era. I can't really believe how all this is playing out, but next hard cold blast after this round. I may see snow. Crazy.

[Tom]

ND and parts of MN got rocked from our sub forums first legit winter storm...

 

[Tom]

October 2000 analog call, which was a Nina year, is looking like the heads above everything winner this year for the modern era. I can't really believe how all this is playing out, but next hard cold blast after this round. I may see snow. Crazy.

Back in '00-'01, I was a freshman at SIUC in Carbondale, IL.  While I don't really remember much about how it was was up north in Chicago, I recall how persistently cold and snowy it had been, esp for S IL standards.  We have a lot going for us this season to become something special.  BTW, I'm hearing the Euro Weeklies are back trending colder for Week 2-4...same as the JMA???

[Andie]

Glad you're here, friend. You're always welcome in here. May have systems that impact both of us this winter.

Glad to be here. I think I'll be needing the information as it comes in. When I read that the Canadian crops were devastated and they were having trouble getting to their cattle to feed them, I knew we were in for trouble.

 

The Canadians know their seasons and this winter came in early for them. Some climatologists I read have said that the real cold won't hit for 2 more winters. So what ever happens this and next winter will pale in comparison if the climate people are right. And many say it will last to 2040. Or 45.

Time to invest in things like wheat and corn. Food will go up like crazy.

[Andie]

Just had to add this.....

 

Monday High of 49* - Low of 43*.

They're calling for an inch of rain.

 

sorry, just had to have this hysterical laugh.

I'm recalling too many Halloweens in shorts and tee shirts by the pool.

It's okay, I'll calm down in a second!

[jaster220]

October 2000 analog call, which was a Nina year, is looking like the heads above everything winner this year for the modern era. I can't really believe how all this is playing out, but next hard cold blast after this round. I may see snow. Crazy.

 

Back in '00-'01, I was a freshman at SIUC in Carbondale, IL.  While I don't really remember much about how it was was up north in Chicago, I recall how persistently cold and snowy it had been, esp for S IL standards.  We have a lot going for us this season to become something special.  BTW, I'm hearing the Euro Weeklies are back trending colder for Week 2-4...same as the JMA???

 

I remember some +IP squalls coming off of Lake Michigan on Oct 7th, 2000 while this year Oct 1-10 were more like Florida conditions using BC month-to-date data. Three times it's hit 84F and the coldest high was 58F. Nothing even close to 2000 here in SWMI.

[Niko]

Back to reality. Current temp at 45F w breezy conditions. WCF at 37F. Lows will drop into the 30s. Hello October, finally!

[OKwx2k4]

Back in '00-'01, I was a freshman at SIUC in Carbondale, IL. While I don't really remember much about how it was was up north in Chicago, I recall how persistently cold and snowy it had been, esp for S IL standards. We have a lot going for us this season to become something special. BTW, I'm hearing the Euro Weeklies are back trending colder for Week 2-4...same as the JMA???

I think so. Theres not a real letup in this cold wave. I'm not seeing anything but below average on the way. This is crazy. This year may be more than I asked for. Lol.

[Hawkeye]

Wow, I had no idea that much snow fell in eastern North Dakota.  I was busy following the hurricane.

[Hoosier]

I remember some +IP squalls coming off of Lake Michigan on Oct 7th, 2000 while this year Oct 1-10 were more like Florida conditions using BC month-to-date data. Three times it's hit 84F and the coldest high was 58F. Nothing even close to 2000 here in SWMI.

Oh man, you just mentioned one of my favorite "minor" snow events.

 

Was living close to where I am now. I went to the movies on the evening of Oct 7, 2000. Came out a little before midnight and it was just drizzling. On the way home, it flipped to heavy, wet snow with multiple instances of thunder/lightning over the course of the next few hours. Temps stayed a bit above freezing and with it being so early in the season, there was a lot of compaction/melting. Woke up to a shotgun sound in the middle of the night and it was a very large branch that snapped off due to the weight of the snow. Still had enough to shovel the next day. Peotone, IL ended up with about 6".

[OKwx2k4]

I remember some +IP squalls coming off of Lake Michigan on Oct 7th, 2000 while this year Oct 1-10 were more like Florida conditions using BC month-to-date data. Three times it's hit 84F and the coldest high was 58F. Nothing even close to 2000 here in SWMI.

We're behind that year but it's the same result.

[OKwx2k4]

Everything I have saw tonight, has went to reloading the cold all the way to end. Trend is cold. Worth watching as the next 3-4 days go by to see if we continue the trend.

[Tom]

Glad to be here. I think I'll be needing the information as it comes in. When I read that the Canadian crops were devastated and they were having trouble getting to their cattle to feed them, I knew we were in for trouble.

 

The Canadians know their seasons and this winter came in early for them. Some climatologists I read have said that the real cold won't hit for 2 more winters. So what ever happens this and next winter will pale in comparison if the climate people are right. And many say it will last to 2040. Or 45.

Time to invest in things like wheat and corn. Food will go up like crazy.

That was my worry way back in late Spring that it would come hard and early across the north.  It's a terrible situation what is happening across Canada and in the N Plains.  I'm telling ya, something spectacular is transpiring on this side of the Globe.  Like Jaster said once, "It's our turn" as Nature balances out her fury.

[Tom]

Ever since October 6th, right on cue when the new cyclical pattern began, the NE PAC ridge has held steadfast in this region for about a week.  The model behavior over the course of the last several days wanted to break down this ridge in the extended, however, that is not the case.  Before this month began, when I saw the CFSv2 paint that warm blob, tucked right into the far corner of the NE PAC, I just knew this was the most ideal placement you can ask for.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/glbSSTMonInd1.gif

 

Reason being, it allows the best opportunity for the southern jet to develop and also allow troughs to cut underneath the "Split Flow" and target the lower part of the west coast.  Now that we are already 12 days into October, the CFSv2 is nowcasting October and its current run illustrates an ideal set up for this month.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

 

It has trended much colder across the central CONUS...this is something we have to pay attention to for next month as well if the same modeling behavior continues as the models "miss" what is happening in the NE PAC.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

[Minny_Weather]

Jesus **** Euro

[Tom]

Jesus **** Euro

I think this storm system should be our first storm thread...agree???  Fire one up if you wish...I'm stepping out to the gym, but I think that this system is a good one to kick off the seasons first storm thread.

[Minny_Weather]

I think this storm system should be our first storm thread...agree???  Fire one up if you wish...I'm stepping out to the gym, but I think that this system is a good one to kick off the seasons first storm thread.

Not gonna yet. I think Euro is being a bit bullish here both with amounts and how far North it'll be. I'll wait a couple more runs.

[Niko]

Cloudy w temps rising into the low 40s. Wcf is 36F.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings thinks most snow falls south of Kansas/Nebraska state line.  One forecast calls for 1-3" in my area but other forecasts just say rain and snow and maybe 1".  Hope to see a little whiteness on Sunday.

[Andie]

That was my worry way back in late Spring that it would come hard and early across the north.  It's a terrible situation what is happening across Canada and in the N Plains.  I'm telling ya, something spectacular is transpiring on this side of the Globe.  Like Jaster said once, "It's our turn" as Nature balances out her fury.

They say climate ( and weather) is history.

It very well may be that when we all look back at the winter of 2018-2019 that we will say this was the tipping point. This was when the weather and climate took a giant step and set the world on its ear.

 

The bread basket economy in Can-Am is going to be shook to its foundations if this cold switch is flipped. Sowing and harvesting will be cut short 3-4 weeks each end and volume affected. Mets will become everyone's best bud as we'll have to watch the cold and wet.

 

This winter is going to be fascinating to watch and read about. You guys have a front row seat.

 

We have a high of 72* forecast, low of 62*. With an 80% chance of thunderstorms today. Trend is colder next week.

I'm already having trouble getting yard work done due to rain.

[bud2380]

The GFS is looking more like the Euro for Sunday, but not quite as far north and east yet with snow.  The Canadian is way north, with snow accumulating in northern NE.  Should be fun to see what models do today.  

[bud2380]

Also my brother says he saw flurries today in Cedar Rapids.  I didn't see any myself.  Not sure if some of the other CR posters saw anything?

[james1976]

Also my brother says he saw flurries today in Cedar Rapids. I didn't see any myself. Not sure if some of the other CR posters saw anything?

Buddy of mine saw flurries in northeast IA yesterday!