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October 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Posted this in the wrong discussion.....

 

Update on totals.

 

Total rain Jan to Aug 31.......22.21"

 

Total Sept 1 to oct. 18........23.79

 

That's 45"

 

We're 19" above normal.

 

Should get 1-2" tomorrow.

 

Gauge is at DFW Airport. 25 miles north east of me.

 

As of 1pm I have .50" so we'll get that 1" putting us 20" above normal.

At this rate, I'll never get any Fall yard work done.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Currently at 45Fw breezy conditions. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The radar around the lower GL's today should showcase the first snow showers/squalls of the season.  I'm hoping to catch my first flakes but it may fall as graupel instead.  I think MI peeps and in N IN stand the best chance.

 

That's one strong lake plume targeting N IN later this evening!

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_18.png

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"The calm before the storm"...it's going to be one of those days where winds are howling, windows are rattling the west facing windows, leafs flying everywhere and people walking around town bundled up. This is a pretty potent CF poised to swing through later today. Lake Michigan will be rocking later in the afternoon...10-14 foot waves??!!

 

 

 

 

Tab3FileL.png?f5f6e53de314b2f3213fc3c9cf

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After my morning stroll, I noticed the maple trees are showing some vibrant colors of late.  The warm start to October prob added to that flavor or color.  CF is approaching, winds are starting to pick up and today will feel like an old fashioned mid Autumn day.  I noticed some Wind Advisories have been hoisted across IA which will prob be extended eastward.

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After analyzing and digesting some data, several LR forecasting I use which have proven to be quite accurate, are leading me to believe that the overall pattern shifts into a more La Nina flavor as we open November.  I prob should put this post in the Autumn Discussion, but for all intents and purposes, I'll post it here since the signals I'm using are being derived from this months pattern evolution.  

 

First, and foremost, this time of year I pay attention to the GEFS 10mb forecasts out into Week 2 as I've learned some modeling techniques over the years that provide more lead time into "where" the pattern may be heading and occasionally "sniff" out the overall 500mb pattern before the models actually "figure" it out.  Towards the end of the Week 2 period, notice how the vectors flow northerly and also, more importantly, are located moreso across western Canada.  This is very important for several reasons, none moreso, is a build up of Arctic cold and storminess which would allow the snow cover to advance in this region where it has been lacking of late.  Also notice the Cross Polar Flow.

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

 

Second, take a look at how the 30mb pattern which has cooled in the Bearing Sea during Sept (which gave us the heads up that a Bearing Sea trough would develop in October) has now bleeded its way into NW NAMER.  IMO, this is where we will see the N.A. pattern cool off significantly come early November.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

Last, but not least, my "Sea of Okhotsk" technique is lining up quite well as both GEFS/EPS are indicating that by Day 9-10 a huge storm is to replace what has been ridging in this part of the world, into a deep trough, suggesting to me that we will see storms ride down the western coastline in early November.  Now, with major blocking in play and a developing SE ridge (which I believe will start showing up in the models), I believe systems will dig into the SW/4corners region just like they did in early October.

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_9.png

 

 

Thus far, this year's LRC is not really advertising a typical El Nino look and I believe its partly to do with the very warm waters in the N PAC near the Aleutians which promote transient ridging.  This bodes well to keep the active storm track farther west instead of locked in the east.  We'll see how this pattern evolves but I'm intrigued to see all of these elements at play.

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Today would certainly be arctic squalls kind of a day if it were winter. Yesterday evening on my evening commute it was 45F with rain and wind. That lasted throughout the evening due to the initial CF, but I see my temps rebounded to the low 50's by midnight in between CF's. As you said Tom, first flakes sighting is a genuine possibility and is in my local grid-cast. Yesterday was the 9th day in a row of BN daily avg temps with one other -1 day earlier in the month. All in all, a split month at d20 tho the departure is still quite positive due to the summer-like warmth in the first week. Should be a bundle-up day in East Lansing for the in-state rivalry game between MSU and U of M. Classic autumn Sat in The Mitt! :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI335 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-210800-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-335 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThere will be a chance for a few thunderstorms this afternoon as astrong upper level disturbance and associated cold front cross theregion. While severe weather is not anticipated, the most vigorouscells will produce brief heavy downpours, graupel and wind gusts to30 mph or more. By late in the day, a few downpours may even mix withheavy wet snowflakes. Storm motion will be from west to east at 35mph.

Interesting weather day today as a chance for snow increases w little to no accumulations.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Today would certainly be arctic squalls kind of a day if it were winter. Yesterday evening on my evening commute it was 45F with rain and wind. That lasted throughout the evening due to the initial CF, but I see my temps rebounded to the low 50's by midnight in between CF's. As you said Tom, first flakes sighting is a genuine possibility and is in my local grid-cast. Yesterday was the 9th day in a row of BN daily avg temps with one other -1 day earlier in the month. All in all, a split month at d20 tho the departure is still quite positive due to the summer-like warmth in the first week. Should be a bundle-up day in East Lansing for the in-state rivalry game between MSU and U of M. Classic autumn Sat in The Mitt! :)

Enjoy your first flakes buddy. Hopefully, you can get a dusting or so b4 it melts off.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently, 48F w cloudy to mostly cloudy and breezy conditions.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After analyzing and digesting some data, several LR forecasting I use which have proven to be quite accurate, are leading me to believe that the overall pattern shifts into a more La Nina flavor as we open November.  I prob should put this post in the Autumn Discussion, but for all intents and purposes, I'll post it here since the signals I'm using are being derived from this months pattern evolution.  

 

First, and foremost, this time of year I pay attention to the GEFS 10mb forecasts out into Week 2 as I've learned some modeling techniques over the years that provide more lead time into "where" the pattern may be heading and occasionally "sniff" out the overall 500mb pattern before the models actually "figure" it out.  Towards the end of the Week 2 period, notice how the vectors flow northerly and also, more importantly, are located moreso across western Canada.  This is very important for several reasons, none moreso, is a build up of Arctic cold and storminess which would allow the snow cover to advance in this region where it has been lacking of late.  Also notice the Cross Polar Flow.

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

 

Second, take a look at how the 30mb pattern which has cooled in the Bearing Sea during Sept (which gave us the heads up that a Bearing Sea trough would develop in October) has now bleeded its way into NW NAMER.  IMO, this is where we will see the N.A. pattern cool off significantly come early November.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

Last, but not least, my "Sea of Okhotsk" technique is lining up quite well as both GEFS/EPS are indicating that by Day 9-10 a huge storm is to replace what has been ridging in this part of the world, into a deep trough, suggesting to me that we will see storms ride down the western coastline in early November.  Now, with major blocking in play and a developing SE ridge (which I believe will start showing up in the models), I believe systems will dig into the SW/4corners region just like they did in early October.

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_9.png

 

 

Thus far, this year's LRC is not really advertising a typical El Nino look and I believe its partly to do with the very warm waters in the N PAC near the Aleutians which promote transient ridging.  This bodes well to keep the active storm track farther west instead of locked in the east.  We'll see how this pattern evolves but I'm intrigued to see all of these elements at play.

 

Nice write-up this morning amigo! JB says the cold may be even bolder than 13-14 or 14-15 and I don't see a purely gradient pattern from which Michigan benefited in 07-08, 08-09, & 13-14. So, we need something else to help us at least "share" in a decent storm track between the mountain ranges. Hopefully you've found that very thing. That would play out more like a 77-78 analog in such case. EC would still get their's but we'd stand a good chance as well. I could see this LRC re-cycling a pattern where the primary storm action begins in The Plains and advances to the EC, then pushes the re-set button and does it all over again.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Enjoy your first flakes buddy. Hopefully, you can get a dusting or so b4 it melts off.

 

You too! I think we both have an equal shot at seeing some. Nice sunny morning right now will fool the unaware peeps for sure. ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice write-up this morning amigo! JB says the cold may be even bolder than 13-14 or 14-15 and I don't see a purely gradient pattern from which Michigan benefited in 07-08, 08-09, & 13-14. So, we need something else to help us at least "share" in a decent storm track between the mountain ranges. Hopefully you've found that very thing. That would play out more like a 77-78 analog in such case. EC would still get their's but we'd stand a good chance as well. I could see this LRC re-cycling a pattern where the primary storm action begins in The Plains and advances to the EC, then pushes the re-set button and does it all over again.

I appreciate it bud and I do agree with you that the storm track will oscillate back and forth from a Plains/GL's track vs E.C. this season.  I don't foresee a dominant EC storm track like they got during "snowmagedon" in '09-'10.  This season really can end up a "share the wealth" in its entirety.  

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You too! I think we both have an equal shot at seeing some. Nice sunny morning right now will fool the unaware peeps for sure. ;)

Indeed! :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just got a round of pea sized hail here at my house it was at the back edge of that thunderstorm

 

Potent squall line across SWMI. Always a good sign for the cold season ahead when towers go up in an already chilly atmosphere!

 

20181020 SWMI radar 1145am.JPG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sky to my NW is darkening and 3rd thunder clap already here in Marshall. More thunder now. Hoping to get a direct hit as we've been missed more than hit all during the warm season with these fairly small scale cells. Neat day tho for sure. Temp has shot up now to 55F, but a rapid drop is in the cards all afternoon.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Holy crap! I went into the store about 10-15min ago and came out into a legit wind tunnel! These winds are no joke. It’s everything and some for what I had in mind for today. This will be a nasty arctic/snow squall event next cycle.

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Very impressive wind gusts...my sister was driving through Aurora and snapped a video when the intense snow squall ripped through and it looked like a whiteout.

 

 

 

61mph CHI-O’Hare
61mph Rockford
59mph Michigan City
57mph West Chicago
53mph Aurora/Sugar Grove
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