October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Yeah, you guys have had ample rains compared to mby. Let this batch take the slightly further south route. I wanna be excited for this new wet pattern too, lol

 

20181005 NOAA wx map.gif

 

Now, just convert this Flash Flood hatched zone to "Heavy Snow" and..

 

BINGO!.jpg

I like the way these low pressure areas are already aligning up in the south and making a B-Line towards MI. Man, this will clobber your area Jaster come Winter and hopefully mine as well. Of course, w cold air in pl.

[james1976]

GFS still with the idea of a large plains system next fri-sat but looks to weaken as it heads northeast.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS still with the idea of a large plains system next fri-sat but looks to weaken as it heads northeast.

Brings snow within one county of here. Scary.

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR just keeps drifting south with the heavy rain this evening and overnight.  It's even south of Iowa City now.  The latest run has Cedar Rapids getting nothing.  At the rate this is going, the widespread several inches of rain that was expected across the area through mid next week is going to end up being 1-2"

[Hawkeye]

Oddly, the WPC's new precip forecast actually shifted the heavy band north to CR to Dubuque.

[jaster220]

I like the way these low pressure areas are already aligning up in the south and making a B-Line towards MI. Man, this will clobber your area Jaster come Winter and hopefully mine as well. Of course, w cold air in pl.

 

Still have leaf change and drop to get thru, heck 1st frost for that matter, so I'm figuring we're a solid 6 weeks from any real winter threat..but yeah, if we can see more of this when we finally get to the cold season, look out. Should NOT be boring

[james1976]

18z a bit further south with the system next fri-sat. Going off 850s it looks like some flakes in IA. Pretty amazing how many wintry like systems are showing up in the medium-long range.

[Hawkeye]

First batch of storms is missing CR just barely south.  I hate that.

[OKwx2k4]

Um, I'm pretty sure the modeling is flashing 3 different types of winter storm patterns at me that will all be near perfect. Am I seeing that right?! Holy cow!

 

In winter, that would be an exciting 14 day stretch, to say the least.

[Niko]

Still have leaf change and drop to get thru, heck 1st frost for that matter, so I'm figuring we're a solid 6 weeks from any real winter threat..but yeah, if we can see more of this when we finally get to the cold season, look out. Should NOT be boring

Fun times ahead.

[Niko]

Currently 58F and cloudy. A wet weekend shaping up.

[bud2380]

It rained hard in North Liberty earlier with cloud to ground lightning.  Very cool storm.  The high school a few miles away is showing 1.2" of rain so far.  

[GDR]

Been getting rocked all night here in south central IA. 1.9 inches so far and still pounding outside.

[Tom]

It rained hard in North Liberty earlier with cloud to ground lightning. Very cool storm. The high school a few miles away is showing 1.2" of rain so far.

Nice to see ya back Bud! I saw your post the other day and meant to reply but forgot. Hope your doing well.

[Hawkeye]

Iowa City is getting trained, Cedar Rapids is getting nothing.  $%!!!  Dang HRRR has been exactly right all day, unfortunately.  This entire week has been a bust for CR.

[jaster220]

Iowa City is getting trained, Cedar Rapids is getting nothing.  $%!!!  Dang HRRR has been exactly right all day, unfortunately.  This entire week has been a bust for CR.

 

Welcome to my club..last week. Tonight I'm getting pounded attm. Now this is legit RN

[Niko]

T'stms rolled on through last night...some strong. Currently, wet and much milder w temps in the 60s. More storms later today and tanite.

[Niko]

18z a bit further south with the system next fri-sat. Going off 850s it looks like some flakes in IA. Pretty amazing how many wintry like systems are showing up in the medium-long range.

Good sign!

[Tom]

It's really nice to hear, that nearly everyone on here is getting in on the action as the atmosphere ramps up and the activity increases while Autumn continues to progress.  Certainly "feels" like nature has flipped the switch and we are experiencing a different pattern.  As the saying goes, "out with the old, in with the new"...

[Niko]

Colors are now getting closer to peaking in full force here IMBY. Partial to almost near peak.

[bud2380]

Radar rain estimates show 6” right over top of me. However I am seeing closer to 3” at the high school and Iowa City airport. Either way it poured rain and it’s not done here yet.

[GDR]

Close to 5” here and still pouring. I’m in a flash flood warning now!

[Hawkeye]

0.67" here overnight into this morning.

[OKwx2k4]

It's really nice to hear, that nearly everyone on here is getting in on the action as the atmosphere ramps up and the activity increases while Autumn continues to progress. Certainly "feels" like nature has flipped the switch and we are experiencing a different pattern. As the saying goes, "out with the old, in with the new"...

It feels like its been the same pattern over and over for like 3 years now for me. Lol. I'm glad that nonsense is over.

[bud2380]

Euro showing a snowy pattern upcoming.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018100600/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png

[jaster220]

0.67" here overnight into this morning.

 

0.75 here in Marshall. Nothing personal ofc, but it's nice to be able to say I beat you if only 1 out of 20 chances

 

This ofc, is nothing compared to y'all out in The Plains but this is the biggest event for mby in at least 5 wks!

[jaster220]

Euro showing a snowy pattern upcoming.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018100600/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png

 

Just outside our sub, but yeah, that's darn robust for the Ole Euro. Bully!! I say to expanded WSWatches and future Warnings

[OKwx2k4]

Getting closer...

 

I can't wait. Gonna be a shocker and could get stronger as we go. Could get weaker also I guess.

[Niko]

Got a ton of rain today. Some clearing taking pl, but more rains are on the way. Definitely ova an 1" ya'll.

[Niko]

Current temp at 73F and DP at 70F. Not a good combo!

[Niko]

Radar is looking juicy...some t'stms, some locally severe are coming for SEMI.

[Iowawx]

Got 0.68" here last night. Better than nothing, but it sucks that the heaviest rain missed us by just about 20 miles. Hopefully the rest of the systems can still deliver some decent rain totals. 

[Niko]

 

NYC Skyline in 2030 . Man, I gotta go back there. Too good not to be there.

[Niko]

@Jaster:

 

How much rain this you get? I am thinking you did well?!

[Minny_Weather]

 

NYC Skyline in 2030 . Man, I gotta go back there. Too good not to be there.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT????? It'll all be underwater!!

[james1976]

[Niko]

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT????? It'll all be underwater!!

[OKwx2k4]

[Niko]

My high temps end of next week look to be quite chilly. As a matter a fact, they keep getting colder and colder. I.e., highs may struggle to reach 50F for high temps and lows falling into the 30s, easily.

[jaster220]

@Jaster:

 

How much rain this you get? I am thinking you did well?!

 

By Marshall standards I've done great, lol. Tacked on a little bit this afternoon for 0.83" total for the event. I got all the rain here a year ago (flood) and in Feb (flood) and in May (flood). I don't want to be in a D0 pre-drought situation but I'm not really unhappy if I don't get the most rain here in mby. Now, when we're talkin' snow that's a whole other matter