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October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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Yep lets get it started. Looking like below normal temps for awhile into the month.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_2.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_4.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like I’ll be living vicariously through you guys for the next several weeks at least.

 

Funny how, during the autumn, a poleward displaced ITCZ/Hadley Cell network in a niño forcing regime can emulate a niña in the extratropics. It’s one of those bizarre overlaps in the spatial nature of the seasonal cycle. Recall we saw something similar the late autumn/early winter during the super niño of 2015/16.

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Looks like I’ll be living vicariously through you guys for the next several weeks at least.

 

Funny how, during the autumn, a poleward displaced ITCZ/Hadley Cell network in a niño forcing regime can emulate a niña in the extratropics. It’s one of those bizarre overlaps in the spatial nature of the seasonal cycle. Recall we saw something similar the late autumn/early winter during the super niño of 2015/16.

2015 was a near record warm October for many parts of the west. Like 2014.

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Ended up with 1.18" of rain in September. About 50% of average...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just over 7 inches of rain here in September... about 175% of normal. And measurable rain on 19 out of 30 days... about double the normal for September.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just over 7 inches of rain here in September... about 175% of normal. And measurable rain on 19 out of 30 days... about double the normal for September.

 

7" in September would be good for #3 all time here I think. The old record was about 7.5" until September 2013 came along and blew it away with 13" of rain. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Here is the updated daily rainfall chart for down in the Snoqualmie Valley.    Lots of days with measureable rain in September with only 11 dry days... but only about 125% of normal for total rain.  

 

(note... this is not my data)

 

2018_Rain.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2015 was a near record warm October for many parts of the west. Like 2014.

The pattern I’m referring to occurred in Nov/Dec 2015, when the subseasonal cyclicality of AAM was more structurally analogous to today. The structure will almost never match perfectly, though.

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Hmmmm....Phil is going all in on a hideous PNW winter. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A moderate drizzle here right now.

 

Looks like widespread 30s for lows on Wednesday. Particularly north of Seattle.

 

gfs_T2m_nwus_9.png

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Ended up with 1.18" of rain in September. About 50% of average...

Just .5" in Monmouth. Not sure about Springfield but it's been bad.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Huh? No I’m not.

 

Then why do you keep bringing up 2014-15 and 2015-16. Back to back duds.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Then why do you keep bringing up 2014-15 and 2015-16. Back to back duds.

 

Up here those years were VERY different in the mountains.

 

2014-15 was one of the worst ski seasons ever... Snoqualmie Summit was open for about one week.     

 

But 2015-16 was one of the best ski seasons ever.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Up here those years were VERY different in the mountains.

 

2014-15 was one of the worst ski seasons ever... Snoqualmie Summit was open for about one week.     

 

But 2015-16 was one of the best ski seasons ever.     

 

2014-15 was MUCH worse. I only had 3.5" of snow that winter, which is by far the least I have received in a winter. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Interestingly I recorded lows in the teens every November in the 2013-2015 time period. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Then why do you keep bringing up 2014-15 and 2015-16. Back to back duds.

I’ve seldom discussed 2015/16 in the context of winter analogs..and there was an Arctic blast in Nov 2014.

 

Just because I “talk” about certain years doesn’t mean that I’m relying on them as analogs. No two analogs are alike...you can’t use analogs to predict the weather on a week to week basis. You use analogs to isolate homogenous low frequency tendencies, from which you can (possibly) extract the likelihood of particular weather/climate events occurring in a particular region, or timeframe.

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I’ve seldom discussed 2015/16 in the context of winter analogs..and there was an Arctic blast in Nov 2014.

 

Just because I “talk” about certain years doesn’t mean that I’m relying on them as analogs. No two analogs are alike...you can’t use analogs to predict the weather on a week to week basis. You use analogs to isolate homogenous low frequency tendencies, from which you can (possibly) extract the likelihood of particular weather/climate events occurring in a particular region, or timeframe.

 

Okay. And yes there were a couple of cold pushes in November 2014, including one that brought record lows to much of E. Oregon. Which was amazing as it was timed around the same time as the 1955 blast. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2014-15 was MUCH worse. I only had 3.5" of snow that winter, which is by far the least I have received in a winter. 

 

This made me look up Christmas Day since 2014.    2014 was definitely the least snowy.  :)

 

Christmas Day in 2017...

 

26023840_1543641699037366_41886968617351

 

Christmas Day in 2016...

 

15697581_1189594527775420_37694496720667

 

Christmas Day in 2015...

 

921196_914209548647254_23945547770267168

 

 

Christmas Day in 2014 was not as snowy... but looks like we had lots of snow before Christmas that year.  

 

10830911_744455228956021_123314131133041

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Surprise!   Its wetter than normal to the north and east of Seattle.

 

This matches well with the rain data from the Snoqualmie Valley which was about 125% of normal.   In reality... there should probably be some other small areas of purple in elevated spots out here like my area with orographic enhancement with the persistent c-zones.    This shows up well on that map just to my north where even lowland stations like Monroe had almost 200% of normal rain.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Okay. And yes there were a couple of cold pushes in November 2014, including one that brought record lows to much of E. Oregon. Which was amazing as it was timed around the same time as the 1955 blast. 

 

The November 2014 blast was one of the greatest early season cold waves on record for parts of the West.

 

- Boise saw three straight lows below 6 degrees, the earliest they've ever seen that.

- Casper, WY had their earliest single digit highs on record and set their all-time coldest temperature for November with -27.

- Cheyenne, WY had a high of 1, by far the earliest they've had a day that cold and their second coldest high on record for November.

- Boulder saw a low of -11, by far their coldest that early and second coldest temp ever in November

- DEN's high of 5 and low of -10 were both the coldest on record for November

 

Overall that month, though, the main cold was centered in the Upper Midwest.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Surprise!   Its wetter than normal to the north and east of Seattle.

 

This matches well with the rain data from the Snoqualmie Valley which was about 125% of normal.   In reality... there should probably be some other small areas of purple in elevated spots out here like my area with orographic enhancement with the persistent c-zones.    This shows up well on that map just to my north where even lowland stations like Monroe had almost 200% of normal rain.  

 

The Arlington to Monroe area was the wettest relative to normal of any area in the western lowlands, and that's reflected well on the map.

 

It's never going to take into account every little micro-climate like yours. Plus, the September average rainfall for your exact location could easily be over 5".

A forum for the end of the world.

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It actually snowed 2" on 12/24/14 here, and there was about 6" on the ground on Christmas day 2015. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Going back to the question of whether seeing cold patterns now is a good or bad thing...I think history would indicate it's more of a good thing, especially with weak ENSO.

 

A lot of winters that went on to be good to great for the PNW/West had significant cold events in the mid Sep to mid October period, with all different ENSO backgrounds. But many non-Nina years that ended up peaking early or just being terrible had very little cold early in the fall (1991, 2002, 2014, 1993, 1952, 1980, 1987, 1957).

A forum for the end of the world.

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Trough just sits and sits...

We need this in winter.

 

ecmwf_z500aMean_namer_2.png

 

ecmwf_z500aMean_namer_4.png

 

ecmwf_z500aMean_namer_6.png

Well, the wavenumber would never be this high during the winter (Aleutian Low + GOA ridge + western trough can only occur during the summer and autumn). So technically speaking “this” particular pattern is unlikely to repeat itself.

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Was just thinking this morning that it was below normal here - I guess not. 

 

1.46" this September and 0.94" in 2017.

 

You were probably very close to normal, even if that map technically show you a little above. Sandpoint had 1.41", which is slightly below normal for them.

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