Minny_Weather Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Okay. I'll bite. The models are coming to a consensus that someone will see snow on Sunday, and someone may see >4". Now, it is far from a sure thing. Models continue to be all over the place, but most have favored North Central KS for highest amounts. 00Z Euro 00Z CMC is the least bullish with the amounts, but the most bullish with the Northerly extent of the snowfall. 12Z NAM 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Still looks like fairly large variability between these models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 @LNKwx NAM-Euro for the win?? NWS going south route so far.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 @LNKwx NAM-Euro for the win?? NWS going south route so far..OAX is just now putting a snow mention in the point click. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 12Z GFS is farther West, putting Eastern IA peoples out of luck & putting the jack zone in NW KS. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 EPS mean for here is 2". Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 OAX is just now putting a snow mention in the point click. I mis-spoke a tad. NOAA going with legit snow threat only far SW KS but that's their Sunday map. As-is tho, would project on the southern edge of other guidance you've posted above if I'm reading it correctly. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 I mis-spoke a tad. NOAA going with legit snow threat only far SW KS but that's their Sunday map. As-is tho, would project on the southern edge of other guidance you've posted above if I'm reading it correctly. 20181012 NOAA Sun 14th wx map.gifThey seem to be putting a lot of faith in GFS/earlier NAM runs. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 12Z GFS is farther West, putting Eastern IA peoples out of luck & putting the jack zone in NW KS.This would put me in the game for a little bit of snow. Still looks like more south according to GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 12z Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 One local forecast has me now receiving 1-4”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 12z ICON covers the entire state of NE with at least some accumulating snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 As long as we can get measurable snow at the airport I'm happy as a clam. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 18z NAM http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018101218/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 All I can say is, I hope you all get plenty of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 12, 2018 Report Share Posted October 12, 2018 Some definite north and some definite south camps. Cold push seems pretty legit so Id bet on more south right now. If I can can score some flakes Ill be stoked! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 18z NAM http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018101218/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png Certainly have to lean Kuchera with a shoulder season event like this. Looks like a fairly narrow band of legit snow surrounded by grass-topper car-topper stuff. Hopefully somebody in here jackpots. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Amounts are dying on pretty much every model. It was fun while it lasted, folks. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 The 12km NAM 0z has 8 inches the county south of me and 4-6” for me. We’ll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Really? Must we? We can't undo history but we can make things unpronounceable for most, lol "Utqiagvik, formerly known as Barrow, is on the northernmost tip of Alaska." Glad all the native names around SMI like Genesee, Shiawasee, and Newaygo (just to name a few) are easy enough for us of Euro decent to pronounce Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Really? Must we? We can't undo history but we can make things unpronounceable for most, lol "Utqiagvik, formerly known as Barrow, is on the northernmost tip of Alaska." Glad all the native names around SMI like Genesee, Shiawasee, and Newaygo (just to name a few) are easy enough for us of Euro decent to pronounce You make a pretty comical point there. The lower 48 Natives, like down here also, must never have been cold enough to make a sound like whatever noise "Utqiagvik" is. Probably means "My mouth is frozen". I mean "Tahlequah" (Oklahoma) is a strange word but anyone who has read/watched and remembered "Where The Red Fern Grows", has heard that word and can say it though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 @ CentralNeb, should be close for your first measurable snowfall of the season... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 The 00z Euro paints a weenie band into the LNK/OMA area with close to 2-3" of snow. Jackpot zone seems to be NW KS area with 4-6", isolated 6-8" totals?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 The 00z Euro paints a weenie band into the LNK/OMA area with close to 2-3" of snow. Jackpot zone seems to be NW KS area with 4-6", isolated 6-8" totals??Winter Weather Advisory 2 counties south of me. I am hoping for a couple of wet, slushy inches just to say I have seen snow this early season. Might get that last minute shift north. NWS Hastings still not 100% sure where the heaviest band sets up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 You make a pretty comical point there. The lower 48 Natives, like down here also, must never have been cold enough to make a sound like whatever noise "Utqiagvik" is. Probably means "My mouth is frozen". I mean "Tahlequah" (Oklahoma) is a strange word but anyone who has read/watched and remembered "Where The Red Fern Grows", has heard that word and can say it though. That's funny! Heck, I'd rather see things re-named in Japanese. They've got some cool names like Fujita, Tsunami, & Sushi for example. It all started with the renaming of Mt. McKinley, but this is like Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 @ LNKwx, you threw in the towel way to soon the other day. 12z NAM trending towards the Euro bud. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 12z NAM...IA peeps back in the game as well as into WI??? http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018101312/051/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 @ LNKwx, you threw in the towel way to soon the other day. 12z NAM trending towards the Euro bud.Reverse psychology. I use it a lot if you haven't noticed. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Local mets now talking rain/snow mix here. Would be awesome to see some wet flakes sticking to the deck atleast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Welp Nebraska is 0-6 for the first time ever, so now let's try to get some snow tomorrow. 12z suite wasn't bad and 18z nam looks juicy so far. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Euro. Ratios will be very D**n close to 1:1 so take this for a grain of salt. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Ehhhhhhhhh that was not a good NAM run. Keeps it as rain for a long time so we only get a couple hours of solid snowfall. And you know with where temperatures will be tomorrow a couple hours of solid snowfall is not enough. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Euro. Ratios will be very d**n close to 1:1 so take this for a grain of salt.How much is a sub to true weather? I like those maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 How much is a sub to true weather? I like those maps.Half as much as WxBell. $12.99/month. I cancelled wxbell last week cuz their rate is insane and got truewx. It lacks a couple things I liked about wxbell, such as easy to read height maps, 50 panel ensembles, and kuchera maps, but other than that I don't mind it. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Ptype is starting to become an issue. The rain/snow line is now one county to the Southeast of here on the RAP. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 18z NAM with accumulating snow even up this way now. Lol. Another year, same stupid model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 NWS Hastings really backing down on amounts, maybe only 2” in advisory and very little in other places. Too warm and during the day will limit snow from accumulating in their opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 13, 2018 Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 Good luck to you all down south. Any flakes are good flakes in mid October. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 NWS Hastings really backing down on amounts, maybe only 2” in advisory and very little in other places. Too warm and during the day will limit snow from accumulating in their opinion.The fact that it's during the day shouldn't make much of a difference accumulations-wise. Temps would be the same during the day or night in this case, and sun angle isn't a big issue in mid-October. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2018 RGEM with 3" on a 10:1 ratio. If only it were cold enough for anything even close to 10:1. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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