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October 14 Plains/MW Snow Potential


Minny_Weather

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Okay. I'll bite. The models are coming to a consensus that someone will see snow on Sunday, and someone may see >4". Now, it is far from a sure thing. Models continue to be all over the place, but most have favored North Central KS for highest amounts.

 

00Z Euro

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_CONUS_hr102.png

 

00Z CMC is the least bullish with the amounts, but the most bullish with the Northerly extent of the snowfall.

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NCCONUS_hr069.png

 

12Z NAM

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NCCONUS_hr084.png

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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@LNKwx

 

NAM-Euro for the win?? NWS going south route so far..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OAX is just now putting a snow mention in the point click.

 

I mis-spoke a tad. NOAA going with legit snow threat only far SW KS but that's their Sunday map. As-is tho, would project on the southern edge of other guidance you've posted above if I'm reading it correctly.

 

20181012 NOAA Sun 14th wx map.gif

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I mis-spoke a tad. NOAA going with legit snow threat only far SW KS but that's their Sunday map. As-is tho, would project on the southern edge of other guidance you've posted above if I'm reading it correctly.

 

attachicon.gif20181012 NOAA Sun 14th wx map.gif

They seem to be putting a lot of faith in GFS/earlier NAM runs.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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18z NAM

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018101218/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Certainly have to lean Kuchera with a shoulder season event like this. Looks like a fairly narrow band of legit snow surrounded by grass-topper car-topper stuff. Hopefully somebody in here jackpots.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Really? Must we? :rolleyes: We can't undo history but we can make things unpronounceable for most, lol

 

"Utqiagvik, formerly known as Barrow, is on the northernmost tip of Alaska."

 

Glad all the native names around SMI like Genesee, Shiawasee, and Newaygo (just to name a few) are easy enough for us of Euro decent to pronounce

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Really? Must we? :rolleyes: We can't undo history but we can make things unpronounceable for most, lol

 

"Utqiagvik, formerly known as Barrow, is on the northernmost tip of Alaska."

 

Glad all the native names around SMI like Genesee, Shiawasee, and Newaygo (just to name a few) are easy enough for us of Euro decent to pronounce

:lol: You make a pretty comical point there. The lower 48 Natives, like down here also, must never have been cold enough to make a sound like whatever noise "Utqiagvik" is. Probably means "My mouth is frozen". :lol:

 

I mean "Tahlequah" (Oklahoma) is a strange word but anyone who has read/watched and remembered "Where The Red Fern Grows", has heard that word and can say it though.

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The 00z Euro paints a weenie band into the LNK/OMA area with close to 2-3" of snow.  Jackpot zone seems to be NW KS area with 4-6", isolated 6-8" totals??

Winter Weather Advisory 2 counties south of me.  I am hoping for a couple of wet, slushy inches just to say I have seen snow this early season.  Might get that last minute shift north.  NWS Hastings still not 100% sure where the heaviest band sets up.

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:lol: You make a pretty comical point there. The lower 48 Natives, like down here also, must never have been cold enough to make a sound like whatever noise "Utqiagvik" is. Probably means "My mouth is frozen". :lol:

 

I mean "Tahlequah" (Oklahoma) is a strange word but anyone who has read/watched and remembered "Where The Red Fern Grows", has heard that word and can say it though.

 

That's funny! :lol:

 

Heck, I'd rather see things re-named in Japanese. They've got some cool names like Fujita, Tsunami, & Sushi for example. It all started with the renaming of Mt. McKinley, but this is like :huh:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Ehhhhhhhhh that was not a good NAM run. Keeps it as rain for a long time so we only get a couple hours of solid snowfall. And you know with where temperatures will be tomorrow a couple hours of solid snowfall is not enough.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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How much is a sub to true weather? I like those maps.

Half as much as WxBell. $12.99/month. I cancelled wxbell last week cuz their rate is insane and got truewx. It lacks a couple things I liked about wxbell, such as easy to read height maps, 50 panel ensembles, and kuchera maps, but other than that I don't mind it.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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NWS Hastings really backing down on amounts, maybe only 2” in advisory and very little in other places. Too warm and during the day will limit snow from accumulating in their opinion.

The fact that it's during the day shouldn't make much of a difference accumulations-wise. Temps would be the same during the day or night in this case, and sun angle isn't a big issue in mid-October.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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