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2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook


Clinton

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2 storms look to target the western and possibly the central sub next week.  Models for now are in good agreement given the range.

12z EPS for the first cutter.

1676484000-FENUcoXm73s.png

Will the second and stronger storm target those who have missed out in Nebraska or will Mother Nature throw a slider.

12z EPS

1676721600-E38RSucnOok.png

18z GEFS

1676786400-PfQGGK86dpA.png

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

2 storms look to target the western and possibly the central sub next week.  Models for now are in good agreement given the range.

12z EPS for the first cutter.

1676484000-FENUcoXm73s.png

Will the second and stronger storm target those who have missed out in Nebraska or will Mother Nature throw a slider.

12z EPS

1676721600-E38RSucnOok.png

18z GEFS

1676786400-PfQGGK86dpA.png

In St. Paul Nebraska for JV and Varsity basketball for our guys, so not much time to check models. Thanks for starting this thread @Clinton

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ZZZ

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I should have put this in the open for the thread.  This part of the pattern has the potential to produce a major severe weather outbreak across the southern plains.  In the early November version this system produced a devastating tornado outbreak across NE Texas and Eastern Oklahoma.  This was the SPC forecast for 11/4.

image.png.e68a878cbad437cdc0d8753de6dba6c6.png

 

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Our local met, who is good, is alerting us to some light snow possible tonight, Accumulating on grass but not on streets.  
I won’t hold my breath but it would be pretty.  Low of 32.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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At this point it seems very unlikely this system trends far enough south to result in anything meaningful down my way. Probably will get a decent rain, but even then it doesn't look all that impressive given limited instability. Cold air does spill in but it'll be dry by that point. After that just got to hope the SSW can work some magic. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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NWS Hastings morning disco:  The latest model data has trended further north with both of these disturbances...bringing the center of both upper level lows across southeastern Nebraska. While the first system continues to be mild for mid-February...with rain expected for the local area and even a little instability just southeast of our borders...the second system is looking a bit more problematic with a strengthening upper level low as it crosses the area (think windy) and increased moisture for increased snowfall amounts behind a strong surface cold front. While still several days out and subject to refinement/change, this set up which is coming into better alignment in global models would result in both impactful snowfall and winds mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening...something which will need to be monitored for changes over the coming days. Not surprisingly, the latest NBM has also has trended significantly upward...bringing greater than a 50 percent chance for 4 inches of snowfall or more to the local area now with this system.

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NWS North Platte:   
 

“a secondary, stronger low will cross the Four Corners into Kansas Wednesday into Wednesday night. A strong deformation zone will develop on the northern periphery of this system with a decent threat for precipitation from Kansas into Nebraska. Temperatures will be much colder with this system, so all snow will be the main precipitation type. The latest GFS and Canadian solutions develop a swath of accumulating snow from southwestern through northeastern Nebraska. The EC soln is further south, favoring northwestern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. With the GFS and Canadian solns indicating a decent threat for snow across the area and the EC just off to the south of the area, will begin to message the midweek threat for snow this morning.”

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Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

1676462400-01676104200.png

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14 hours ago, Stacsh said:

It’s over 

4 hours ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Winter is Forked for us.   

Until 3rd wk of March, when my one and only storm will re-loop. But by then, I expect the "shoulder season special" of 2-3" grass topping event here in the hot box of SEMI. Yawn

This predominantly Plains track for 3 straight winters sucks

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Until 3rd wk of March, when my one and only storm will re-loop. But by then, I expect the "shoulder season special" of 2-3" grass topping event here in the hot box of SEMI. Yawn

This predominantly Plains track for 3 straight winters sucks

You could sure use some moisture, your area is one of the few that haven't seen improvement with the drought, you don't want to go into the warmer months already being in severe drought.  I hope you at least see decent rainfall from these storms.

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