Bryan1117 Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 15 hours ago, jaster220 said: ZZZ Even though things look good for Eastern Nebraska right now... I am not getting my hopes up. Plenty of time for our friend up north (hawkstwelve) to reel another one in, as I don't think that the models are going to be much help until about 24 hours before this second wave is supposed to hit (if that). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 I don't like this set up. Just like @Money said; it's very hard for back to back waves to produce something significant with the second piece of energy. Time will tell I guess. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 Wow, the gefs is way se of the op 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 37 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Even though things look good for Eastern Nebraska right now... I am not getting my hopes up. Plenty of time for our friend up north (hawkstwelve) to reel another one in, as I don't think that the models are going to be much help until about 24 hours before this second wave is supposed to hit (if that). Yep something will go off the rails here pretty shortly 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 12z GEFS Colorado gets the most. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 Euro is gonna look a lot like the Ukie compared to GFS/GEM Digging pretty far south through HR 108. Also looks weaker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 Euro is a general 6-10 inch snowfall for most of Iowa and southern WI 6-10 for NE area as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 12z Euro 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 2 hours ago, Clinton said: You could sure use some moisture, your area is one of the few that haven't seen improvement with the drought, you don't want to go into the warmer months already being in severe drought. I hope you at least see decent rainfall from these storms. Recent storm dopped a decent amount, and January was actually 0.82 AN, so that helped. Dec was normal. So yeah, another slug or two of moisture will help the cause. We do have a long duration lack of moisture, not a harsh noticeable hot-n-dry stretch situation. If you didn't look at local aquifers you'd think all was fine. But drive past a pond back in late October and they were all but dried-up. I am seeing more water in them again, but still no where near where they should be. Just not Texas dry. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Recent storm dopped a decent amount, and January was actually 0.82 AN, so that helped. Dec was normal. So yeah, another slug or two of moisture will help the cause. We do have a long duration lack of moisture, not a harsh noticeable hot-n-dry stretch situation. If you didn't look at local aquifers you'd think all was fine. But drive past a pond back in late October and they were all but dried-up. I am seeing more water in them again, but still no where near where they should be. Just not Texas dry. I was just researching cocorahs data and since sept 1 many sites near me have had 12 to 16.5 inches of precip. Certainly several inches above avg. Each of the past 6 months here have been at or above average precip. Creeks are running again, ponds have risen and when not frozen its ridiculously muddy. I know we had a 15 inch 2022 deficit in August but currently we seem to be out of all drought conditions however are still level 2 or 3 on monitor, not sure why? Several systems have put down .70 to 1.2 inches of precip extremely wet systems for here in winter. And have had many snow events under 2.5 inches. In fact we are nearing record revenue mostly from our commercial accounts and lots of salting. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 6 hours ago, Clinton said: Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this. SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November. Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week. @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 SPC Mentioned that they may need to add a 30% area for Wednesday 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 7 hours ago, Clinton said: Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this. SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November. Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week. @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 Much appreciated. One never knows about Texas or Oklahoma weather. So changeable. Even deceptive. I’ve observed it all my life and even the very best Mets we have here shake their heads in frustration. Best to prepare for the worst and smile when it doesn’t deliver!! Gorgeous day today. 55*. Sunny. Can’t beat it ! 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 18z GFS is like 6 mb stronger than 12z and a bit more north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 Max band of 14-20 from northern NE to northern IA up through LSE and N/C WI 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 18z is a complete crush job for most of us Nebraska folks. Would more than enough make up for the misery we have seen. Unfortunately it’s the 18z gfs and we are over 90 hours out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 Out in Sidney NE. Lots of snow cover. However, we felt the chinook. Temp was about 32 Ogallala then got to Sidney and it was 53 degrees. Massive snow drifts on the sides of the interstate on I80 in the Panhandle. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 hour ago, gabel23 said: 18z is a complete crush job for most of us Nebraska folks. Would more than enough make up for the misery we have seen. Unfortunately it’s the 18z gfs and we are over 90 hours out. So models look good @gabel23? Haven’t had time to check much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11, 2023 Report Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Whoa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 18Z GEFS 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 19z NWS Blend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 I don't see any significant changes with the 18z Euro Control or Mean. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 0z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Storm is gone on the 00z Canadian. It will likely be something in between the strong GFS and nothing GDPS. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Prolly be a TC special. I won't be there though. I'll be in IA wed-sat. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 01z NWS Blend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 NWS Omaha definitely makes you pull back your expectations. There will be a 12-18 hour break before the next round of precipitation moves in by Wednesday afternoon, then winding down through the day Thursday. Models are in still decent agreement and suggest the potential for several inches of snow in our forecast area, although the mean axis of the heaviest snow has shifted slightly southward with recent model runs. Temperature profiles are slightly colder with the mid week system, and thus precipitation may begin just as snow, with not much chance for rain at all. Through the event, we`ll also see northerly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible, which will create areas of blowing and drifting snow as well. WPC still indicates a 30-50% chance of QPF exceeding 0.25" for this event. The experimental Probabilistic WSSI still suggests a 40-60% chance of minor winter impacts, a 20-40% chance of moderate impacts, and even a 5-10% chance of major winter impacts. While it`s still beyond our QPF window for snowfall forecasts, NBM is suggesting a wide swath of plowable snow (a few inches) in our forecast area, with the heaviest axis along/south of I80. NBM also suggests suggests a 30-50% probability of 6 inches, and 20-30% probability of 8". And there seems to be decent support from both the 00z GEFS and EC ensembles, although amounts are a little lower from these two models. For Omaha, the GEFS spread among its members is from a trace to 8 inches, but the mean is about 3". The mean from the ECENS for Omaha is about the same. The heaviest axis seems to be setting up just south of I80. While it`s still a day too soon to discuss details as there is still some model uncertainty on the exact track and the amounts, forecaster confidence remains medium to high that a winter storm will impact the region later this week. It`s now within the WPC winter storm outlook window on Day 4, which has large area of 30-50% chance of meeting winter storm warning conditions ending at 6 am Thursday, with a smaller area of 50-80% for southeast NE. Certainly it looks like a solid winter weather advisory, and time will tell if we will eventually need a winter storm watch. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Looks like pretty much a done deal that Topeka to the KC area will miss out on this one. Nothing new really. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 0z Euro Control... 0z EPS...a little weaker and SE... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 06z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 6z Euro Control and Mean. Both are a little weaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this turn into a non event for most secondary lows are almost always weaker as we get closer to events 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 @Andie is still under the Severe Weather threat for Wednesday. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Secondary lows are the worst. Like a 1 out of 10 proposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 12z GFS much farther south, and weaker. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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