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2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook


Clinton

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15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

ZZZ

Even though things look good for Eastern Nebraska right now... I am not getting my hopes up. Plenty of time for our friend up north (hawkstwelve) to reel another one in, as I don't think that the models are going to be much help until about 24 hours before this second wave is supposed to hit (if that). 

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37 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Even though things look good for Eastern Nebraska right now... I am not getting my hopes up. Plenty of time for our friend up north (hawkstwelve) to reel another one in, as I don't think that the models are going to be much help until about 24 hours before this second wave is supposed to hit (if that). 

Yep something will go off the rails here pretty shortly 😁

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

You could sure use some moisture, your area is one of the few that haven't seen improvement with the drought, you don't want to go into the warmer months already being in severe drought.  I hope you at least see decent rainfall from these storms.

Recent storm dopped a decent amount, and January was actually 0.82 AN, so that helped. Dec was normal. So yeah, another slug or two of moisture will help the cause. We do have a long duration lack of moisture, not a harsh noticeable hot-n-dry stretch situation. If you didn't look at local aquifers you'd think all was fine. But drive past a pond back in late October and they were all but dried-up. I am seeing more water in them again, but still no where near where they should be. Just not Texas dry. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Recent storm dopped a decent amount, and January was actually 0.82 AN, so that helped. Dec was normal. So yeah, another slug or two of moisture will help the cause. We do have a long duration lack of moisture, not a harsh noticeable hot-n-dry stretch situation. If you didn't look at local aquifers you'd think all was fine. But drive past a pond back in late October and they were all but dried-up. I am seeing more water in them again, but still no where near where they should be. Just not Texas dry. 

I was just researching  cocorahs  data and since  sept 1 many sites  near me have had 12 to 16.5 inches of precip. Certainly  several inches above avg. Each of the past 6 months here have been at or above  average precip.  Creeks are running  again, ponds have risen and when not frozen its ridiculously  muddy.  I know we had a 15 inch 2022 deficit  in August  but  currently  we seem to be out of all drought  conditions  however  are still level 2 or 3 on monitor, not sure why? Several systems  have put down .70 to 1.2 inches of precip extremely wet systems  for here in winter. And have had many snow events  under 2.5 inches. In fact we are nearing record  revenue  mostly  from our commercial  accounts  and lots of salting. 

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

1676462400-01676104200.png

SPC Mentioned that they may need to add a 30% area for Wednesday

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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7 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

1676462400-01676104200.png

Much appreciated.  One never knows about Texas or Oklahoma weather. So changeable.  Even deceptive.  
I’ve observed it all my life and even the very best Mets we have here shake their heads in frustration.  
Best to prepare for the worst and smile when it doesn’t deliver!!

Gorgeous day today. 55*. Sunny.  
Can’t beat it !

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Storm is gone on the 00z Canadian.  It will likely be something in between the strong GFS and nothing GDPS.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS Omaha definitely makes you pull back your expectations.

There will be a 12-18 hour break before the next round of
precipitation moves in by Wednesday afternoon, then winding down
through the day Thursday. Models are in still decent agreement
and suggest the potential for several inches of snow in our
forecast area, although the mean axis of the heaviest snow has
shifted slightly southward with recent model runs. Temperature
profiles are slightly colder with the mid week system, and thus
precipitation may begin just as snow, with not much chance for
rain at all. Through the event, we`ll also see northerly winds
increase to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible, which
will create areas of blowing and drifting snow as well. WPC still
indicates a 30-50% chance of QPF exceeding 0.25" for this event.
The experimental Probabilistic WSSI still suggests a 40-60% chance
of minor winter impacts, a 20-40% chance of moderate impacts, and
even a 5-10% chance of major winter impacts. While it`s still
beyond our QPF window for snowfall forecasts, NBM is suggesting a
wide swath of plowable snow (a few inches) in our forecast area,
with the heaviest axis along/south of I80. NBM also suggests
suggests a 30-50% probability of 6 inches, and 20-30% probability
of 8". And there seems to be decent support from both the 00z GEFS
and EC ensembles, although amounts are a little lower from these
two models. For Omaha, the GEFS spread among its members is from
a trace to 8 inches, but the mean is about 3". The mean from the
ECENS for Omaha is about the same. The heaviest axis seems to be
setting up just south of I80.

While it`s still a day too soon to discuss details as there is still
some model uncertainty on the exact track and the amounts,
forecaster confidence remains medium to high that a winter storm
will impact the region later this week. It`s now within the WPC
winter storm outlook window on Day 4, which has large area of
30-50% chance of meeting winter storm warning conditions ending at
6 am Thursday, with a smaller area of 50-80% for southeast NE.
Certainly it looks like a solid winter weather advisory, and time
will tell if we will eventually need a winter storm watch.
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