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2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook


Clinton

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20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second.  Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm.  At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out.

I agree Clinton. Back in the glory years of old the first storm would be weak, but just strong enough to put the cold air in place, while the second storm would be the strong one to deliver the goods. It is hardly ever that way anymore it seems.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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19 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

sn10_acc-imp.us_c.png

This is so funny, sad, and awesome at the same time… stick a fork in the Winter of 2022-23 already and let’s move on.

Hopefully we can at least get the 0.50” to 1.00” of rain forecasted from the first wave and not get dry-slotted for the 20th time this year.

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I really feel sorry for some of my ski/snowboard friends. They still keep thinking there's any winter left. One was all excited for the 4-6 inches we were going to get Thursday/Friday from this system. I don't know what they're thinking, the rain system, even if we get an amazing snow storm in the second wave, would leave a ski hill as a sheet of ice with some loose stuff on top.

This is gonna be one of those springs where the torch and rain kills all the ski hills at the end of February, yet I'm out at the end of March or even mid April wiping snow off my jet ski before I go out.

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/7b/73/7a/7b737a129c21011a993db1c6fa19c2cb.jpg

Usually the models have been strengthening in the short term before completely dying in the last 24 hours this year. I'm at least curious to see how they're going to be wrong this time since the pattern is changing with how they are wrong.

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16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z.  Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions.

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If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It’s probably better odds at this point that the snow falls between Omaha and KC.😂😂

I posted an update in my thread asking how much snow do you think you’ll get during what was supposed to be a cold active period for most with ensembles showing beautiful clown maps turning the country into a glacier. I even gave a full 3 weeks from 1/24-2/14.
I’m going to end that period with 1”. 

And now it looks more and more like this storm will give us an inch if we’re lucky. I’m at 8.1” on the year.

 

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42 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

Strong push of cold air behind the front.  Should make for some good ratios, hope it can come south another 60 to 80 miles.

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