jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Again, the GDPS (Canadian) is very flat and has almost no storm at all. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second. Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm. At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 12z GEFS looks blah. 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, Clinton said: Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second. Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm. At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out. I agree Clinton. Back in the glory years of old the first storm would be weak, but just strong enough to put the cold air in place, while the second storm would be the strong one to deliver the goods. It is hardly ever that way anymore it seems. 3 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 UK was already one of the south models, now it's trending even farther south and weaker. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: This is so funny, sad, and awesome at the same time… stick a fork in the Winter of 2022-23 already and let’s move on. Hopefully we can at least get the 0.50” to 1.00” of rain forecasted from the first wave and not get dry-slotted for the 20th time this year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 12z Euro... about the same track, continuing to weaken by a hair each run. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 Has anyone noticed the warm sector part of this system? 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 I really feel sorry for some of my ski/snowboard friends. They still keep thinking there's any winter left. One was all excited for the 4-6 inches we were going to get Thursday/Friday from this system. I don't know what they're thinking, the rain system, even if we get an amazing snow storm in the second wave, would leave a ski hill as a sheet of ice with some loose stuff on top. This is gonna be one of those springs where the torch and rain kills all the ski hills at the end of February, yet I'm out at the end of March or even mid April wiping snow off my jet ski before I go out. Usually the models have been strengthening in the short term before completely dying in the last 24 hours this year. I'm at least curious to see how they're going to be wrong this time since the pattern is changing with how they are wrong. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, gosaints said: Secondary lows are the worst. Like a 1 out of 10 proposition. They're harder to predict 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z. Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 12z Euro Kuchera 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z. Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions. If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 It’s probably better odds at this point that the snow falls between Omaha and KC. I posted an update in my thread asking how much snow do you think you’ll get during what was supposed to be a cold active period for most with ensembles showing beautiful clown maps turning the country into a glacier. I even gave a full 3 weeks from 1/24-2/14. I’m going to end that period with 1”. And now it looks more and more like this storm will give us an inch if we’re lucky. I’m at 8.1” on the year. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 46 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 12z Euro Kuchera I like it! Heading in the right direction! I would however take an even further south solution! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 42 minutes ago, jaster220 said: If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. Strong push of cold air behind the front. Should make for some good ratios, hope it can come south another 60 to 80 miles. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 12, 2023 Report Share Posted February 12, 2023 I thought this was hilarious Quote The boss wants the forecast NOW but the models are garbage, what do I do?! I know, I'll just give every snow chance between a trace and 15 inches about 23% probability! There's literally no way I can be wrong! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 18z Euro Control is juiced. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 This is trending closer to me with the snow 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 lol, hope its right 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Nam says meh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Go Chiefs!! More like go refs...man what a brutal call. 4 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 What a game! Southern edge of that snow creeping in on KC! Way to go Chiefs! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Jc apparently thinks there’s only one region affected by this 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 When the Icon is the best model for your backyard, you’re losing. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 What a day! Snow chances increasing? Hmmm… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 21 minutes ago, Money said: Jc apparently thinks there’s only one region affected by this Well, it makes sense a Nebraska-based member is posting Nebraska-based maps, no? There's also nothing stopping you from adding maps of different regions. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 ukie- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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