MIKEKC Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Speaking with Lezak this morning, he said if the ULL is strong, it likely cuts harder and KC gets dry slotted with little accumulation. Bigger snows will happen in NEB and Iowa...but, if it shears out, it will go SE more and favor KC to get accumulating snow, not a big storm, but a 1-3 inch snow in 20-22 degree air which will be quite the change to all other snows at 32-33 this winter. So, here in KC, I guess I'm rooting for a weaker storm, I don't think I have ever wished for that. LOL 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 By this time tomorrow high totals will be around an inch…Lol! Bring on spring!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 The Euro cave has begun. The 12z run is its weakest so far, a big drop from 00z. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: Speaking with Lezak this morning, he said if the ULL is strong, it likely cuts harder and KC gets dry slotted with little accumulation. Bigger snows will happen in NEB and Iowa...but, if it shears out, it will go SE more and favor KC to get accumulating snow, not a big storm, but a 1-3 inch snow... This is what the models have been showing all along. I'd rather the guys up north have a stronger storm to enjoy rather than suffer through another 1" nuisance snowfall. Bring on Spring and let's be done with this garbage winter (here anyway). 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Kuchera ratios 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Let’s be honest if anyone thought it be more than 3 to 6 you would be kidding yourself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, GDR said: Let’s be honest if anyone thought it be more than 3 to 6 you would be kidding yourself All i'm hoping is for 3-6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 12Z Euro. Not bad. Plus the temps are supposed to be cold with a strong north wind. Could be some travel issues if it verifies. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 EPS Mean 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 18Z RDPS coming in with heavier totals 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 18Z RGEM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 DMX with a rather lame disco. Can tell it's a relative newbie. Cold air advection increase Wednesday behind the system as northwesterly winds take over. As the Tuesday system exits our next system developing over the southwest will again lift into the midwest. Given the colder temperatures in place, this time precipitation will fall in the form of snow. While there is decent agreement in the track of the system, differences remain between the GFS and Euro suites. Both GFS and Euro deterministic runs are more aggressive in snow totals than their ensemble mean counterparts, and the GFS remains further southeast than the more consistent track of the euro solution. Given the cold thermal profiles and a period of strong omega within the DGZ, expect there could be a period with higher snowfall rates and SLRs as snow falls late Wednesday night into Thursday. While totals remain a little uncertain, confidence is increasing in at least some impact to travel by Thursday morning in central to southern Iowa. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Well, well, well. It's 18z GFS so grain of salt. I wonder who will cave to who soon?? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 D**n. Strong run by the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Gfs has trended stronger and snowier each of the last 3 runs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 That won't happen obviously, but I could go for another daytime snowstorm blitz. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Ugh! The last two runs of the Euro and now the 18z GFS have introduced mixed precipitation in my area for the first part of the storm, thus lowering snow totals! But the low is well south in Indiana and the 540 line is just south…hmmm! Hopefully these models adjust to the conditions 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Windshield Wiper effect on the models, GFS trending back NW Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 She's a beaut Clark 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 18Z GEFS stopped the decreasing totals with a nice increase. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Is it Spring?! Highs 70-75 Mon-Tues Lows in the mid 40's. Rain the next several days, some storms heavy, high winds/gusts. The entire pattern looks like Spring with a strong SW inflow. <sigh> ...Winter's O-ver. 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Dmx going out on a limb 5 1 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 Felt this was appropriate. 4 hours ago, bud2380 said: EPS Mean As in Mean to SE Mi . 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 13, 2023 Report Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 18z Euro. Pretty good run for my area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: Dmx going out on a limb I feel like these wide range forecast maps are new this year… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 NWS really going out on a limb forecasting me for between 1-6”. I guess this means they have no idea and are playing the low and high amounts. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 We have to keep in mind that winds are forecasted to be 40 mph plus. With a drier snow, it should easily blow around. Feels like that part of the storm hasn’t been talked about enough by forecasters. Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning has the chance to get pretty dicey. We have Parent/Teacher Conferences from 2-6 pm on Wednesday. Gosh it would be too bad if they were cancelled by weather. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterSquall23 said: Felt this was appropriate. As in Mean to SE Mi . Was never our storm. But looks like northern SEMI will get a bit. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 Oz HRRR through 48 hours. Still snowing. Sure seems to be coming in further north. Is that a trend in the models tonight? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 WPC today has quite the tease for Chicagoland folks 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 Nws offices were told to cover their asses. Typical of the current state of our leadership in government. CYA, or better just pretend you're invisibly shaking hands with someone on stage. This government and their leadership need help. 1 to 8 inches sounds like what every woman hears on a first date too. Sorry, not sorry. ToastedRavs, a bit toasted and a bit salty on this Monday night. Lol. 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 lmao 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 Just now, jcwxguy said: lmao Well the 0-7” is not gonna cover that run for my area! Seriously why is everything we have to go off of have to be such a s-show?! Let the fun begin! Let’s see what crap the gfs throws at us. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 01z NWS Blend 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 14, 2023 Report Share Posted February 14, 2023 NWS HRW NSSL. Only goes to 48 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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