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2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook


Clinton

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...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CSTTHURSDAY...Ā 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches...with locally higher amounts possible across north central Kansas. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.Ā 

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska generally along and south of Highway 6.Ā 

* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Thursday.Ā 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing and drifting snow could significantly reduce visibility.Ā 

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9 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

snku_acc-imp.us_c.png

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

Every run of the Euro is south of the last run.Ā Ā šŸ¤®Ā  The HRRR/RAP agree with the Euro.

This may be the second consecutive warning bust for Cedar Rapids.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Ā  Ā  Ā  '21-22: 27.1"Ā  Ā  Ā  '20-21: 52.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  '19-20: 36.2"Ā  Ā  Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā  Ā  Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm liking the recent trends down this way into N IL as most higher rez models keep the RN/SN line from the i-80 corridor on north.Ā  I could see mostly snow which is a win considering I was out of the game just a couple days ago.Ā Ā 

This system should end up producing a lot of winners on here from the Plains to the Lakes...good luck to all!Ā  Finally, a decent storm to track after whats been a warm FEB.

0z EPS... @OttumwaSnomowĀ @HawkeyeĀ and E IA crew look golden up into S Wisco... @MKEstorm

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12z NWS NDFD...never used this model before but I'm interested to see how good it performs...

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Wow. The HRRR is awful in Iowa. The only good news is the HRRR is awful in general it seems.Ā 

The HRRR did about the best of any model last storm.Ā  It started southeast and never budged.Ā  In this case, the HRRR and Euro are trending in the same direction.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Ā  Ā  Ā  '21-22: 27.1"Ā  Ā  Ā  '20-21: 52.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  '19-20: 36.2"Ā  Ā  Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā  Ā  Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z NAM, 3kNAM, FV3

No real south shift from any of them, but definitely trending weaker.

image.thumb.png.1ed52f4b769654c059a470125a666b2a.png

image.thumb.png.bd229b263e9f66d3ae1d7b4c43cf2442.png

image.thumb.png.57641581703623394e10452116141323.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Ā  Ā  Ā  '21-22: 27.1"Ā  Ā  Ā  '20-21: 52.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  '19-20: 36.2"Ā  Ā  Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā  Ā  Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Falling apart šŸ˜‘--Ā  06Z Euro ( if true KOMA WSWarn for OMA is big bust)

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA    LAT=  41.30 LON=  -95.90 ELE=   981

                                            06Z FEB15
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 06Z 15-FEB   1.7    -2.9     999      88      89             539     540    
WED 12Z 15-FEB  -1.5    -7.6    1013      68      45             546     535    
WED 18Z 15-FEB  -1.0    -4.9    1020      54      56    0.00     548     532    
THU 00Z 16-FEB  -4.8    -4.8    1022      59      86    0.00     549     532    
THU 06Z 16-FEB  -6.3    -5.5    1022      60      99    0.04     548     531    
THU 12Z 16-FEB  -7.1    -8.8    1023      64      99    0.12     542     524    
THU 18Z 16-FEB  -3.0    -8.9    1025      50      85    0.06     540     520    
FRI 00Z 17-FEB  -3.1    -8.7    1026      45      68    0.00     542     521
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DSM    LAT=  41.53 LON=  -93.65 ELE=   965

                                            06Z FEB15
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 06Z 15-FEB   5.1    -1.0     994      88      62             536     541    
WED 12Z 15-FEB   1.2    -1.0    1007      76      62             545     540    
WED 18Z 15-FEB   1.6    -2.2    1016      54      34    0.00     549     536    
THU 00Z 16-FEB  -0.4    -2.5    1019      53      72    0.00     550     535    
THU 06Z 16-FEB  -5.4    -2.9    1021      62      88    0.00     550     534    
THU 12Z 16-FEB  -4.6    -6.6    1018      70     100    0.05     545     531    
THU 18Z 16-FEB  -3.6    -8.7    1021      66      99    0.16     540     523    
FRI 00Z 17-FEB  -2.7    -8.9    1024      54      69    0.03     540     520    
FRI 06Z 17-FEB  -7.7    -9.6    1028      66      84    0.00     542     520

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Cold air advection is under done on previous guidance -- just catching up-----dry air). Likely going to wash out totals for many unless certain location can get under upper air forcing. (frontogenenis) dont bet on it. System again mocks the winter as a bust for many ----

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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28 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Cold air advection is under done on previous guidance -- just catching up-----dry air). Likely going to wash out totals for many unless certain location can get under upper air forcing. (frontogenenis) dont bet on it. System again mocks the winter as a bust for many ----

Light snow and falling temps already here. Last night hung around 34 when 42 was expected

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm liking the recent trends down this way into N IL as most higher rez models keep the RN/SN line from the i-80 corridor on north.Ā  I could see mostly snow which is a win considering I was out of the game just a couple days ago.Ā Ā 

This system should end up producing a lot of winners on here from the Plains to the Lakes...good luck to all!Ā  Finally, a decent storm to track after whats been a warm FEB.

0z EPS... @OttumwaSnomowĀ @HawkeyeĀ and E IA crew look golden up into S Wisco... @MKEstorm

Ā 

image.png

image.png

Ā 

Ā 

12z NWS NDFD...never used this model before but I'm interested to see how good it performs...

image.png

image.png

Ā 

Ā 

Couple inches by us looks achievable with slightly more towards the border. Nothing to write home about or really get excited about for at least Chitown folks.

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