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2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook


Clinton

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If it makes you feel better it's happening here too. WSW for 4-8, Wunderground already revising totals down from 5 inches to 4.1. They always go this way, probably going to end up 1-3 here, closer to the 1in side by the time it comes. Almost a script at this point. Not surprised, at least it's supposed to land close to home and I'm not going to have to worry about driving to find snow.

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1 hour ago, MKEstorm said:

MKX has  just issued a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10 inches and near blizzard conditions

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ066&warncounty=WIC079&firewxzone=WIZ066&local_place1=2 Miles SE West Allis WI&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=42.9845&lon=-87.9977#.Y-06IPdMG_Y

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
  inches, highest amounts near the lake. Winds gusting as high as
  35 to 40 mph with blowing and drifting snow. Near blizzard
  conditions in the afternoon and early evening.

* WHERE...Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will
  mainly occur after the morning commute but will impact the
  afternoon and evening commute.

 

Meanwhile...story of my winter blah continues.

I'm the red dot. Headline miss by mere miles yet again (facepalm)

 

 

 

23-02-15 Headline map-story of the winter.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Best point forecast of the year.  Let's see what happens.  

 

Snow, mainly before 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

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A sizable size of North Texas is under a Severe Weather Watch.  Cold front on the way.   

We’re currently at 77* so any large drop should kick off some good storm action.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

The view of the snow capped mountains from back in AZ…the storm has left it’s mark with very low Snow levels.  I saw the radar from lat night and they had thunder snow falling up near Payson up hwy 260.  

9521DEC1-CF3C-4D4D-A245-A3F606637993.jpeg

1 hour ago, Tony said:

18Z NAM bumped up totals again. I think my 2" might just be too low...who would have thought. Tom you are starting to reel this one in. 6" might not be that far out of reach.

News bulletin! @Tom skated. Apparently couldn't stand all the winter excitement in Chicagoland this season.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Bryan1117 said:

What a complete dog *#%@ Winter here… honestly I didn’t think it could get any worse than last year, however here we are again. At least we will be back in the mid and upper 40’s this upcoming weekend, so it’s not like it will be cold after this system passes by.

With no snow it’ll warm back up pretty quickly this weekend and there’s no long bouts of super arctic air on the horizon either. Every storm system with colder air behind it immediately gets replaced with warmer air a couple days later. About the only good news here..

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DMX disco talking 20:1 ratios and near blizzard condidtions with 2" hour rates

The obvious primary concern remains the evolution of the upcoming
winter storm tonight and Thursday, but unfortunately confidence
remains reduced due to persistent FV3 core (GFS/HRWFV3) solutions
which are more aggressive with amounts and the NW extent of
precipitation, especially at onset. The current forecast will
continue to side with the ensemble and deterministic solution
consensus, but the higher resolution outlier FV3 core solutions
with a deeper 1-3km low and higher moisture in that layer remain
disconcerting.

The overall system evolution hasn`t changed much however, with
deep QG forcing increasing quickly around 06z, and a noted
companion surge of thermodynamic support and sharp increase in
theta-e advection and frontogenetic forcing aligned with the tight
baroclinic zone. This all occurs concurrently with low static
stabilities, with several solutions still noting token MUCAPEs
into southeast IA, and negative EPV above the frontogenetic lift.
All these mechanisms seem to align with peak vertical motion
12-15z just ahead of the 1-3km low when snow ratios may jump for
several hours. Examination of several soundings don`t note
anything notable in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) depth around
this time, but the vertical motion is strong and coincident with
super saturation with respect to ice promoting dendritic crystals.
12Z HREF supports this as well with elevated probabilities of
1"/hr snow rates, and even token 2"/hr probs noted. Thus heavy
snow with what may be brief high snow ratios (20:1 plus) may
impact the morning commute from Des Moines south during these peak
snowfall rates. This will also be coincident with 25-30 mph wind
gusts, which will likely not technically meet blizzard criteria,
but the combination of snow rates and blowing snow could still
significantly reduce visibilities during the bursts of heavier
snow leading very hazardous travel. Based on public inquiries and
bias from our recent mild temps, it needs to be clarified that
this snowfall will not be wet and melting, but rather a fluffier
more traditional snow.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I think any storms will likely form around the Red River and track into Oklahoma.  Nothing to indicate DFW will get hammered. 
But you never know about this area.  
They're determined to state we’ll see them overnight. Currently it’s moving north of the Red River and models have it remaining north of DFW. 
But it’s Texas…who knows.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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8 hours ago, East Dubzz said:

I'm very much to the point where I am a pass on 3" snowstorms. It's going to all be gone by next week, but it's going to be cold enough after the storm where I'll actually have to shovel it. Gross. 6"+ or bust. 

7 hours ago, Tony said:

Agree and once March hits its 12" minimum otherwise not worth tracking.

@tStacsh has kin out west apparently

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z HRRR

The higher band up through Cedar Rapids this run is due to an initial "dagger", as was referenced in this thread above.  If that dagger band does not materialize (probably won't), then chop a few inches off CR's total.

image.thumb.png.c812c3cc8d0825da2ec1a41348dcc488.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Meanwhile...story of my winter blah continues.

I'm the red dot. Headline miss by mere miles yet again (facepalm)

@jaster220 maybe this will be the surprise storm ? there was nobody at Kroger tonight.  
 
 

Biggest ones I have seen were not advertised. FWIW

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

 

 

23-02-15 Headline map-story of the winter.PNG

 

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The latest RAP has also bumped nice snow north into Omaha.  It must suck to be a forecaster in Omaha this winter.  Who the heck knows what they will get.

The RAP is trending up for Cedar Rapids, too.

image.thumb.png.46d752663c81311e8e89aed320da05e1.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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seems like the system has slowed down. Was supposed to start here just after midnight and end by noon or so,, now it's 6 hours after both of those at least

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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