mlgamer Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Down here on the southern edge my grid forecast got cut in half from 2-4" down to 1-2". Looks like dry air among other problems is going to win the day here. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Snow has begun. Ground already covered. Let’s go. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 If it makes you feel better it's happening here too. WSW for 4-8, Wunderground already revising totals down from 5 inches to 4.1. They always go this way, probably going to end up 1-3 here, closer to the 1in side by the time it comes. Almost a script at this point. Not surprised, at least it's supposed to land close to home and I'm not going to have to worry about driving to find snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 They keep upping amounts. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: They keep upping amounts. Must be nice to have forecasted amounts go up for a system... my point forecast for Southwest Omaha went from 4 to 8 inches to 2 to 4 inches in the course of 4 hours . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 I posted a video on the Dust Storm Yesterday 3 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, MKEstorm said: MKX has just issued a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10 inches and near blizzard conditions https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ066&warncounty=WIC079&firewxzone=WIZ066&local_place1=2 Miles SE West Allis WI&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=42.9845&lon=-87.9977#.Y-06IPdMG_Y ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, highest amounts near the lake. Winds gusting as high as 35 to 40 mph with blowing and drifting snow. Near blizzard conditions in the afternoon and early evening. * WHERE...Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties. * WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will mainly occur after the morning commute but will impact the afternoon and evening commute. Meanwhile...story of my winter blah continues. I'm the red dot. Headline miss by mere miles yet again (facepalm) 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Best point forecast of the year. Let's see what happens. Snow, mainly before 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 A sizable size of North Texas is under a Severe Weather Watch. Cold front on the way. We’re currently at 77* so any large drop should kick off some good storm action. 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 hours ago, Tom said: The view of the snow capped mountains from back in AZ…the storm has left it’s mark with very low Snow levels. I saw the radar from lat night and they had thunder snow falling up near Payson up hwy 260. 1 hour ago, Tony said: 18Z NAM bumped up totals again. I think my 2" might just be too low...who would have thought. Tom you are starting to reel this one in. 6" might not be that far out of reach. News bulletin! @Tom skated. Apparently couldn't stand all the winter excitement in Chicagoland this season. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Bryan1117 said: What a complete dog *#%@ Winter here… honestly I didn’t think it could get any worse than last year, however here we are again. At least we will be back in the mid and upper 40’s this upcoming weekend, so it’s not like it will be cold after this system passes by. With no snow it’ll warm back up pretty quickly this weekend and there’s no long bouts of super arctic air on the horizon either. Every storm system with colder air behind it immediately gets replaced with warmer air a couple days later. About the only good news here.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 DMX disco talking 20:1 ratios and near blizzard condidtions with 2" hour rates The obvious primary concern remains the evolution of the upcoming winter storm tonight and Thursday, but unfortunately confidence remains reduced due to persistent FV3 core (GFS/HRWFV3) solutions which are more aggressive with amounts and the NW extent of precipitation, especially at onset. The current forecast will continue to side with the ensemble and deterministic solution consensus, but the higher resolution outlier FV3 core solutions with a deeper 1-3km low and higher moisture in that layer remain disconcerting. The overall system evolution hasn`t changed much however, with deep QG forcing increasing quickly around 06z, and a noted companion surge of thermodynamic support and sharp increase in theta-e advection and frontogenetic forcing aligned with the tight baroclinic zone. This all occurs concurrently with low static stabilities, with several solutions still noting token MUCAPEs into southeast IA, and negative EPV above the frontogenetic lift. All these mechanisms seem to align with peak vertical motion 12-15z just ahead of the 1-3km low when snow ratios may jump for several hours. Examination of several soundings don`t note anything notable in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) depth around this time, but the vertical motion is strong and coincident with super saturation with respect to ice promoting dendritic crystals. 12Z HREF supports this as well with elevated probabilities of 1"/hr snow rates, and even token 2"/hr probs noted. Thus heavy snow with what may be brief high snow ratios (20:1 plus) may impact the morning commute from Des Moines south during these peak snowfall rates. This will also be coincident with 25-30 mph wind gusts, which will likely not technically meet blizzard criteria, but the combination of snow rates and blowing snow could still significantly reduce visibilities during the bursts of heavier snow leading very hazardous travel. Based on public inquiries and bias from our recent mild temps, it needs to be clarified that this snowfall will not be wet and melting, but rather a fluffier more traditional snow. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 6 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Thinking Warnings will need to be expanded N in IA-- not wishcasting, WPC thinks along the same lines- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Looks like dry air is winning out north of I-80 into my area. This dreaded drought is gonna keep playing a role on systems until we can snap it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 No school tomorrow. It is rough outside. Probably close to 3” with a lot of blowing snow. Visibility of 1/4 mile at times. Snow bands sitting over our area. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 I think any storms will likely form around the Red River and track into Oklahoma. Nothing to indicate DFW will get hammered. But you never know about this area. They're determined to state we’ll see them overnight. Currently it’s moving north of the Red River and models have it remaining north of DFW. But it’s Texas…who knows. 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 18Z Euro- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 Have graupel falling and turning the deck white. The models have hinted at mixed precip here but seems to be a bit early. Probably doesn't mean anything overall but interesting nonetheless. Temp is 36F. 5 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: 18Z Euro- I’m that 9” in South Central Nebraska. My prediction is 8”. Forecast is 6-10” or more. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 18Z Euro- Would be an absolutely incredible screw-hole in Omaha if this panned out verbatim. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 The dagger that Jim Flowers keeps referring to is showing up nicely into my area per the 18z run of the euro. Meanwhile radar is showing snow and nothing is falling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 8 hours ago, East Dubzz said: I'm very much to the point where I am a pass on 3" snowstorms. It's going to all be gone by next week, but it's going to be cold enough after the storm where I'll actually have to shovel it. Gross. 6"+ or bust. 7 hours ago, Tony said: Agree and once March hits its 12" minimum otherwise not worth tracking. @tStacsh has kin out west apparently Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 Wow it's going to be amazing to have great snow on a weekday at Alpine Valley and only have to drive 25 minutes instead of an hour and a half to cascade. Usually it's raining in SE Wisconsin while it snows up in Portage. Sure hope this doesn't do anything crazy in the final moments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 00z HRRR The higher band up through Cedar Rapids this run is due to an initial "dagger", as was referenced in this thread above. If that dagger band does not materialize (probably won't), then chop a few inches off CR's total. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: Meanwhile...story of my winter blah continues. I'm the red dot. Headline miss by mere miles yet again (facepalm) @jaster220 maybe this will be the surprise storm ? there was nobody at Kroger tonight. Biggest ones I have seen were not advertised. FWIW 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 Seems about right. Maybe change the 1 to a 0 though 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 nam for the win (i hope) oma-dome 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 Nam coming in further N in iA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: nam for the win (i hope) oma-dome Not gonna lie, I would be okay if that panned out, it's too painfully comedic 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 00z FV3 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 The latest RAP has also bumped nice snow north into Omaha. It must suck to be a forecaster in Omaha this winter. Who the heck knows what they will get. The RAP is trending up for Cedar Rapids, too. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 16, 2023 Report Share Posted February 16, 2023 seems like the system has slowed down. Was supposed to start here just after midnight and end by noon or so,, now it's 6 hours after both of those at least 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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