2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook

[Money]

Euro is a general 6-10 inch snowfall for most of Iowa and southern WI 

 

6-10 for NE area as well 

[Clinton]

12z Euro

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

You could sure use some moisture, your area is one of the few that haven't seen improvement with the drought, you don't want to go into the warmer months already being in severe drought.  I hope you at least see decent rainfall from these storms.

Recent storm dopped a decent amount, and January was actually 0.82 AN, so that helped. Dec was normal. So yeah, another slug or two of moisture will help the cause. We do have a long duration lack of moisture, not a harsh noticeable hot-n-dry stretch situation. If you didn't look at local aquifers you'd think all was fine. But drive past a pond back in late October and they were all but dried-up. I am seeing more water in them again, but still no where near where they should be. Just not Texas dry. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Recent storm dopped a decent amount, and January was actually 0.82 AN, so that helped. Dec was normal. So yeah, another slug or two of moisture will help the cause. We do have a long duration lack of moisture, not a harsh noticeable hot-n-dry stretch situation. If you didn't look at local aquifers you'd think all was fine. But drive past a pond back in late October and they were all but dried-up. I am seeing more water in them again, but still no where near where they should be. Just not Texas dry. 

I was just researching  cocorahs  data and since  sept 1 many sites  near me have had 12 to 16.5 inches of precip. Certainly  several inches above avg. Each of the past 6 months here have been at or above  average precip.  Creeks are running  again, ponds have risen and when not frozen its ridiculously  muddy.  I know we had a 15 inch 2022 deficit  in August  but  currently  we seem to be out of all drought  conditions  however  are still level 2 or 3 on monitor, not sure why? Several systems  have put down .70 to 1.2 inches of precip extremely wet systems  for here in winter. And have had many snow events  under 2.5 inches. In fact we are nearing record  revenue  mostly  from our commercial  accounts  and lots of salting. 

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

SPC Mentioned that they may need to add a 30% area for Wednesday

[Andie]

7 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

Much appreciated.  One never knows about Texas or Oklahoma weather. So changeable.  Even deceptive.  
I’ve observed it all my life and even the very best Mets we have here shake their heads in frustration.  
Best to prepare for the worst and smile when it doesn’t deliver!!

Gorgeous day today. 55*. Sunny.  
Can’t beat it !

[Money]

18z GFS is like 6 mb stronger than 12z and a bit more north 

[Money]

Max band of 14-20 from northern NE to northern IA up through LSE and N/C WI 

[gabel23]

18z is a complete crush job for most of us Nebraska folks. Would more than enough make up for the misery we have seen. Unfortunately it’s the 18z gfs and we are over 90 hours out.

[CentralNebWeather]

Out in Sidney NE. Lots of snow cover. However, we felt the chinook. Temp was about 32 Ogallala then got to Sidney and it was 53 degrees. Massive snow drifts on the sides of the interstate on I80 in the Panhandle. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

18z is a complete crush job for most of us Nebraska folks. Would more than enough make up for the misery we have seen. Unfortunately it’s the 18z gfs and we are over 90 hours out.

 So models look good @gabel23? Haven’t had time to check much. 

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Whoa. 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GEFS 

[CentralNebWeather]

19z NWS Blend. 

[Clinton]

I don't see any significant changes with the 18z Euro Control or Mean.

[Clinton]

0z GFS 

[Hawkeye]

Storm is gone on the 00z Canadian.  It will likely be something in between the strong GFS and nothing GDPS.

[james1976]

Prolly be a TC special. I won't be there though. I'll be in IA wed-sat.

[CentralNebWeather]

01z NWS Blend. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

NWS Omaha definitely makes you pull back your expectations.

There will be a 12-18 hour break before the next round of
precipitation moves in by Wednesday afternoon, then winding down
through the day Thursday. Models are in still decent agreement
and suggest the potential for several inches of snow in our
forecast area, although the mean axis of the heaviest snow has
shifted slightly southward with recent model runs. Temperature
profiles are slightly colder with the mid week system, and thus
precipitation may begin just as snow, with not much chance for
rain at all. Through the event, we`ll also see northerly winds
increase to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible, which
will create areas of blowing and drifting snow as well. WPC still
indicates a 30-50% chance of QPF exceeding 0.25" for this event.
The experimental Probabilistic WSSI still suggests a 40-60% chance
of minor winter impacts, a 20-40% chance of moderate impacts, and
even a 5-10% chance of major winter impacts. While it`s still
beyond our QPF window for snowfall forecasts, NBM is suggesting a
wide swath of plowable snow (a few inches) in our forecast area,
with the heaviest axis along/south of I80. NBM also suggests
suggests a 30-50% probability of 6 inches, and 20-30% probability
of 8". And there seems to be decent support from both the 00z GEFS
and EC ensembles, although amounts are a little lower from these
two models. For Omaha, the GEFS spread among its members is from
a trace to 8 inches, but the mean is about 3". The mean from the
ECENS for Omaha is about the same. The heaviest axis seems to be
setting up just south of I80.

While it`s still a day too soon to discuss details as there is still
some model uncertainty on the exact track and the amounts,
forecaster confidence remains medium to high that a winter storm
will impact the region later this week. It`s now within the WPC
winter storm outlook window on Day 4, which has large area of
30-50% chance of meeting winter storm warning conditions ending at
6 am Thursday, with a smaller area of 50-80% for southeast NE.
Certainly it looks like a solid winter weather advisory, and time
will tell if we will eventually need a winter storm watch.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[mlgamer]

Looks like pretty much a done deal that Topeka to the KC area will miss out on this one. Nothing new really. 

[Tom]

0z Euro Control...

 

0z EPS...a little weaker and SE...

[Tom]

06z GEFS...

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control and Mean.  Both are a little weaker.

[Money]

Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this turn into a non event for most

secondary lows are almost always weaker as we get closer to events 

[hawkstwelve]

This one is starting to look out of reach for FSD. Weaker and further SE is the clear trend down the home stretch. On to the next one.

[Iceresistance]

@Andie is still under the Severe Weather threat for Wednesday.

[gosaints]

Secondary lows are the worst. Like a 1 out of 10 proposition.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS much farther south, and weaker.

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

Again, the GDPS (Canadian) is very flat and has almost no storm at all.

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second.  Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm.  At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out.

[Clinton]

12z GEFS looks blah.

[mlgamer]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second.  Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm.  At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out.

I agree Clinton. Back in the glory years of old the first storm would be weak, but just strong enough to put the cold air in place, while the second storm would be the strong one to deliver the goods. It is hardly ever that way anymore it seems.

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

UK was already one of the south models, now it's trending even farther south and weaker.

[Bryan1117]

19 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

This is so funny, sad, and awesome at the same time… stick a fork in the Winter of 2022-23 already and let’s move on.

Hopefully we can at least get the 0.50” to 1.00” of rain forecasted from the first wave and not get dry-slotted for the 20th time this year.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro... about the same track, continuing to weaken by a hair each run.

[Iceresistance]

Has anyone noticed the warm sector part of this system?

[gimmesnow]

I really feel sorry for some of my ski/snowboard friends. They still keep thinking there's any winter left. One was all excited for the 4-6 inches we were going to get Thursday/Friday from this system. I don't know what they're thinking, the rain system, even if we get an amazing snow storm in the second wave, would leave a ski hill as a sheet of ice with some loose stuff on top.

This is gonna be one of those springs where the torch and rain kills all the ski hills at the end of February, yet I'm out at the end of March or even mid April wiping snow off my jet ski before I go out.

Usually the models have been strengthening in the short term before completely dying in the last 24 hours this year. I'm at least curious to see how they're going to be wrong this time since the pattern is changing with how they are wrong.

[hawkstwelve]

Euro shows SE SD will be right between the two systems and get a big ol nothing.

This thing is quickly turning into a flop, barring any last minute changes.

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, gosaints said:

Secondary lows are the worst. Like a 1 out of 10 proposition.

They're harder to predict

[Clinton]

12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z.  Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions.