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2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook


Clinton

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

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SPC Mentioned that they may need to add a 30% area for Wednesday

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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7 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

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Much appreciated.  One never knows about Texas or Oklahoma weather. So changeable.  Even deceptive.  
I’ve observed it all my life and even the very best Mets we have here shake their heads in frustration.  
Best to prepare for the worst and smile when it doesn’t deliver!!

Gorgeous day today. 55*. Sunny.  
Can’t beat it !

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Storm is gone on the 00z Canadian.  It will likely be something in between the strong GFS and nothing GDPS.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS Omaha definitely makes you pull back your expectations.

There will be a 12-18 hour break before the next round of
precipitation moves in by Wednesday afternoon, then winding down
through the day Thursday. Models are in still decent agreement
and suggest the potential for several inches of snow in our
forecast area, although the mean axis of the heaviest snow has
shifted slightly southward with recent model runs. Temperature
profiles are slightly colder with the mid week system, and thus
precipitation may begin just as snow, with not much chance for
rain at all. Through the event, we`ll also see northerly winds
increase to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible, which
will create areas of blowing and drifting snow as well. WPC still
indicates a 30-50% chance of QPF exceeding 0.25" for this event.
The experimental Probabilistic WSSI still suggests a 40-60% chance
of minor winter impacts, a 20-40% chance of moderate impacts, and
even a 5-10% chance of major winter impacts. While it`s still
beyond our QPF window for snowfall forecasts, NBM is suggesting a
wide swath of plowable snow (a few inches) in our forecast area,
with the heaviest axis along/south of I80. NBM also suggests
suggests a 30-50% probability of 6 inches, and 20-30% probability
of 8". And there seems to be decent support from both the 00z GEFS
and EC ensembles, although amounts are a little lower from these
two models. For Omaha, the GEFS spread among its members is from
a trace to 8 inches, but the mean is about 3". The mean from the
ECENS for Omaha is about the same. The heaviest axis seems to be
setting up just south of I80.

While it`s still a day too soon to discuss details as there is still
some model uncertainty on the exact track and the amounts,
forecaster confidence remains medium to high that a winter storm
will impact the region later this week. It`s now within the WPC
winter storm outlook window on Day 4, which has large area of
30-50% chance of meeting winter storm warning conditions ending at
6 am Thursday, with a smaller area of 50-80% for southeast NE.
Certainly it looks like a solid winter weather advisory, and time
will tell if we will eventually need a winter storm watch.
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Again, the GDPS (Canadian) is very flat and has almost no storm at all.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second.  Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm.  At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out.

namconus_ref_frzn_scus_52.png

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20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second.  Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm.  At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out.

I agree Clinton. Back in the glory years of old the first storm would be weak, but just strong enough to put the cold air in place, while the second storm would be the strong one to deliver the goods. It is hardly ever that way anymore it seems.

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UK was already one of the south models, now it's trending even farther south and weaker.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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19 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

sn10_acc-imp.us_c.png

This is so funny, sad, and awesome at the same time… stick a fork in the Winter of 2022-23 already and let’s move on.

Hopefully we can at least get the 0.50” to 1.00” of rain forecasted from the first wave and not get dry-slotted for the 20th time this year.

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12z Euro... about the same track, continuing to weaken by a hair each run.

image.thumb.png.d6fdb164c79e0923a27c20f6d1921a6e.png

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I really feel sorry for some of my ski/snowboard friends. They still keep thinking there's any winter left. One was all excited for the 4-6 inches we were going to get Thursday/Friday from this system. I don't know what they're thinking, the rain system, even if we get an amazing snow storm in the second wave, would leave a ski hill as a sheet of ice with some loose stuff on top.

This is gonna be one of those springs where the torch and rain kills all the ski hills at the end of February, yet I'm out at the end of March or even mid April wiping snow off my jet ski before I go out.

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/7b/73/7a/7b737a129c21011a993db1c6fa19c2cb.jpg

Usually the models have been strengthening in the short term before completely dying in the last 24 hours this year. I'm at least curious to see how they're going to be wrong this time since the pattern is changing with how they are wrong.

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16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z.  Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions.

1676678400-awhR9LiFtao.png

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If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It’s probably better odds at this point that the snow falls between Omaha and KC.😂😂

I posted an update in my thread asking how much snow do you think you’ll get during what was supposed to be a cold active period for most with ensembles showing beautiful clown maps turning the country into a glacier. I even gave a full 3 weeks from 1/24-2/14.
I’m going to end that period with 1”. 

And now it looks more and more like this storm will give us an inch if we’re lucky. I’m at 8.1” on the year.

 

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42 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

Strong push of cold air behind the front.  Should make for some good ratios, hope it can come south another 60 to 80 miles.

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