2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

SPC Mentioned that they may need to add a 30% area for Wednesday

[Andie]

7 hours ago, Clinton said:

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

Much appreciated.  One never knows about Texas or Oklahoma weather. So changeable.  Even deceptive.  
I’ve observed it all my life and even the very best Mets we have here shake their heads in frustration.  
Best to prepare for the worst and smile when it doesn’t deliver!!

Gorgeous day today. 55*. Sunny.  
Can’t beat it !

[Money]

18z GFS is like 6 mb stronger than 12z and a bit more north 

[Money]

Max band of 14-20 from northern NE to northern IA up through LSE and N/C WI 

[gabel23]

18z is a complete crush job for most of us Nebraska folks. Would more than enough make up for the misery we have seen. Unfortunately it’s the 18z gfs and we are over 90 hours out.

[CentralNebWeather]

Out in Sidney NE. Lots of snow cover. However, we felt the chinook. Temp was about 32 Ogallala then got to Sidney and it was 53 degrees. Massive snow drifts on the sides of the interstate on I80 in the Panhandle. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

18z is a complete crush job for most of us Nebraska folks. Would more than enough make up for the misery we have seen. Unfortunately it’s the 18z gfs and we are over 90 hours out.

 So models look good @gabel23? Haven’t had time to check much. 

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Whoa. 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GEFS 

[CentralNebWeather]

19z NWS Blend. 

[Clinton]

I don't see any significant changes with the 18z Euro Control or Mean.

[Clinton]

0z GFS 

[Hawkeye]

Storm is gone on the 00z Canadian.  It will likely be something in between the strong GFS and nothing GDPS.

[james1976]

Prolly be a TC special. I won't be there though. I'll be in IA wed-sat.

[CentralNebWeather]

01z NWS Blend. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

NWS Omaha definitely makes you pull back your expectations.

There will be a 12-18 hour break before the next round of
precipitation moves in by Wednesday afternoon, then winding down
through the day Thursday. Models are in still decent agreement
and suggest the potential for several inches of snow in our
forecast area, although the mean axis of the heaviest snow has
shifted slightly southward with recent model runs. Temperature
profiles are slightly colder with the mid week system, and thus
precipitation may begin just as snow, with not much chance for
rain at all. Through the event, we`ll also see northerly winds
increase to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible, which
will create areas of blowing and drifting snow as well. WPC still
indicates a 30-50% chance of QPF exceeding 0.25" for this event.
The experimental Probabilistic WSSI still suggests a 40-60% chance
of minor winter impacts, a 20-40% chance of moderate impacts, and
even a 5-10% chance of major winter impacts. While it`s still
beyond our QPF window for snowfall forecasts, NBM is suggesting a
wide swath of plowable snow (a few inches) in our forecast area,
with the heaviest axis along/south of I80. NBM also suggests
suggests a 30-50% probability of 6 inches, and 20-30% probability
of 8". And there seems to be decent support from both the 00z GEFS
and EC ensembles, although amounts are a little lower from these
two models. For Omaha, the GEFS spread among its members is from
a trace to 8 inches, but the mean is about 3". The mean from the
ECENS for Omaha is about the same. The heaviest axis seems to be
setting up just south of I80.

While it`s still a day too soon to discuss details as there is still
some model uncertainty on the exact track and the amounts,
forecaster confidence remains medium to high that a winter storm
will impact the region later this week. It`s now within the WPC
winter storm outlook window on Day 4, which has large area of
30-50% chance of meeting winter storm warning conditions ending at
6 am Thursday, with a smaller area of 50-80% for southeast NE.
Certainly it looks like a solid winter weather advisory, and time
will tell if we will eventually need a winter storm watch.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[mlgamer]

Looks like pretty much a done deal that Topeka to the KC area will miss out on this one. Nothing new really. 

[Tom]

0z Euro Control...

 

0z EPS...a little weaker and SE...

[Tom]

06z GEFS...

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control and Mean.  Both are a little weaker.

[Money]

Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this turn into a non event for most

secondary lows are almost always weaker as we get closer to events 

[Iceresistance]

@Andie is still under the Severe Weather threat for Wednesday.

[gosaints]

Secondary lows are the worst. Like a 1 out of 10 proposition.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS much farther south, and weaker.

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

Again, the GDPS (Canadian) is very flat and has almost no storm at all.

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second.  Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm.  At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out.

[Clinton]

12z GEFS looks blah.

[mlgamer]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Models have trended so strong with the first storm that its only leaving scraps for the second.  Also the front looks strong and is kinda shearing out the second storm.  At hr 84 the NAM looks very positively tilted and stretched out.

I agree Clinton. Back in the glory years of old the first storm would be weak, but just strong enough to put the cold air in place, while the second storm would be the strong one to deliver the goods. It is hardly ever that way anymore it seems.

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

UK was already one of the south models, now it's trending even farther south and weaker.

[Bryan1117]

19 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

This is so funny, sad, and awesome at the same time… stick a fork in the Winter of 2022-23 already and let’s move on.

Hopefully we can at least get the 0.50” to 1.00” of rain forecasted from the first wave and not get dry-slotted for the 20th time this year.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro... about the same track, continuing to weaken by a hair each run.

[Iceresistance]

Has anyone noticed the warm sector part of this system?

[gimmesnow]

I really feel sorry for some of my ski/snowboard friends. They still keep thinking there's any winter left. One was all excited for the 4-6 inches we were going to get Thursday/Friday from this system. I don't know what they're thinking, the rain system, even if we get an amazing snow storm in the second wave, would leave a ski hill as a sheet of ice with some loose stuff on top.

This is gonna be one of those springs where the torch and rain kills all the ski hills at the end of February, yet I'm out at the end of March or even mid April wiping snow off my jet ski before I go out.

Usually the models have been strengthening in the short term before completely dying in the last 24 hours this year. I'm at least curious to see how they're going to be wrong this time since the pattern is changing with how they are wrong.

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, gosaints said:

Secondary lows are the worst. Like a 1 out of 10 proposition.

They're harder to predict

[Clinton]

12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z.  Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions.

[Grizzcoat]

12z Euro Kuchera 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z.  Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions.

If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

It’s probably better odds at this point that the snow falls between Omaha and KC.

I posted an update in my thread asking how much snow do you think you’ll get during what was supposed to be a cold active period for most with ensembles showing beautiful clown maps turning the country into a glacier. I even gave a full 3 weeks from 1/24-2/14.
I’m going to end that period with 1”. 

And now it looks more and more like this storm will give us an inch if we’re lucky. I’m at 8.1” on the year.

 

[MKEstorm]

46 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

12z Euro Kuchera 

 

 

 

 

 

I like it! Heading in the right direction! I would however take an even further south solution!

[Clinton]

42 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

Strong push of cold air behind the front.  Should make for some good ratios, hope it can come south another 60 to 80 miles.

[jcwxguy]