2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook

[Tom]

On this Valentine's Day, the 4 corners region is going to get hit pretty good with some hefty mountain snows where much of the region needs it for their water supply.

Up in N AZ, Snowbowl Blitz coming today...I've never seen them advertise "Thundersnow" for a day's forecast...

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z GEFS

The north, super-wet op GFS is off its rocker.  Throw it out.

[Hawkeye]

52 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

06z Euro ticked back down again after bumping up at 00z.

[jcwxguy]

Just want a 40 mile shift north (only in Nebraska)

[jcwxguy]

[tStacsh]

I'm on the rain/sleet/snow line.  Anywhere from 0-5" of snow.  Oh joy.   

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

I would take this.  With strong winds, there could be potentially blizzard like conditions.  NWS Hastings with no advisories on the Nebraska side.  Kind of odd, but in years past they can sometimes be late to the party.  If models hold, I would think some sort of watch or advisory would be issued this afternoon.  We'll see.  

[jcwxguy]

Hrrr is slightly south but usually has a southern bias. Time will tell if it shift north 

[Hawkeye]

7 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Hrrr is slightly south but usually has a southern bias. Time will tell if it shift north 

The way too early HRRR forecast.  

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

Sheesh, the NAM continues to be flat, weak garbage.  I was hoping to see a little sign of improvement this morning.

[WinterSquall23]

On 2/10/2023 at 8:09 PM, jaster220 said:

ZZZ

(ZZZ)^Z.    Is more like it. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and GFS-based FV3 are ridiculous.... too far north and way too strong.  The FV3 is several mb stronger than the Euro.

[CentralNebWeather]

13z NWS Blend

[Bellona]

If I got half of what GFS/FV are showing I'd be happy. Don't think it's going to happen unless things change. But, who knows. Last week I thought I was in a good spot and never got a flake!

[james1976]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Wonder why the GEFS are so much farther SE then the OP???  They haven't deviated at all the past 24 hours or so...

Yeah I was wondering that too. What's the GFS OP smoking?

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Things look pretty good here, but no advisories.

Also, my NWS grid forecast has 2-4” of snow but “only” a 60% of snow. Normally you’d see 80-100% precipitation chances with a forecast like that.

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

12z HRW WRF NSSL to 48 hours. 

[bud2380]

The GFS is not budging.

 

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The GFS is not budging.

 

The GFS will certainly budge.  If the GFS trends south and drier and some other models trend north and wetter, I'd be totally fine with that.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Such a sharp cutoff for Fremont. At least some models give me 2-6

[Tony]

"Thread the Needle" type setup for No IL. Guessing maybe a couple inches for Chicagoland area and the counties closer to the cheeseland border might cash in on a couple more. The system next week is going to be very interesting for many on this sub forum. Good luck to you all to the west and north of Chitown.

[gabel23]

7 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Such a sharp cutoff for Fremont. At least some models give me 2-6

Yeah we are going to be riding the edge. Seems like we have these types of set ups all the time. 

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

GEM is trending a little further north and the 12z run was a fair amount wetter. Also a bit better with the deformation band for SE SD tonight.

The Canadian finally joined the party after showing barely any storm for several runs.

[Hawkeye]

Farther south and east view of the GDPS

[Hawkeye]

12z GEFS mean.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

The UK went weak and a bit south again.... UGH.

The 15z RAP map posted above is also south of the 09z run.  I don't want to see that.

[bud2380]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z GEFS mean.

Proving the operational model is an outlier.  

[MIKEKC]

KC riding the edge with this storm....maybe/maybe not! 4-5 inches of snow on the data just 50 miles away...I think at least 1-2 inches is doable in KC. 

 

[mlgamer]

On many model solutions this morning I only need a south shift of even 30 miles to get in on the higher totals. So near yet so far...

[WinterSquall23]

Same here imby.  Just west and North enough to catch at least some snow. Oakland county is the battleground once again in this area.