2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook

[gimmesnow]

So it's basically GFS, Euro, and Icon saying big dog through south central Wisconsin vs everyone else saying weak and south?

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro looking great for my area.  No time right now to post anything.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro... a bit south and weaker.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

Euro  probably the realistic solution compared to the GFS. 

[The Snowman]

GFS ensembles present some concern, but I think Omaha's actually looking pretty solid for snow. 10:1 maps probably not the most accurate for this go-around as snow will be falling in a relatively cold air mass (20s, declining as we get into the heaviest snow since it's an overnight event), but even those maps show confidence in a good 2-4".

Current model-given range is 1-15" for Omaha, 3-6" seems fair right now with risks skewed a little to the upside given the consistency of the Euro and GFS.

[gimmesnow]

12 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

TY fo posting all regions like this. Euro looks pretty close to GFS unless I'm missing something

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

TY fo posting all regions like this. Euro looks pretty close to GFS unless I'm missing something

GFS is slightly further north and much higher qpf

GFS QPF

 

Euro QPF

[GDR]

[gimmesnow]

17 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS is slightly further north and much higher qpf

GFS QPF

 

Euro QPF

Oh thank you. GFS is 10:1 ratio with higher QPF and Euro is lower QPF with Kuchera ratios. Makes sense why the snow maps look similar but they have different solutions.

[DSM WeatherNut]

Strange WSW put out by DMX.  Greater expansion to come?

[jcwxguy]

[Bellona]

4 minutes ago, DSM WeatherNut said:

Strange WSW put out by DMX.  Greater expansion to come?

South of 20 and east of 35 I'd expect something. Whether it is a watch or advisory time will tell.

[bud2380]

59 minutes ago, GDR said:

wxcaster.com - this used to be the GO TO site for snow maps before Pivotal, Tropical Tidbits and some of the other pay sites came out.  Brings back some good memories of that site. 

[MKEstorm]

Heavy snow in the forecast grid for Thursday!

 

 

[jcwxguy]

[MIKEKC]

No worries, Clinton, I'm going to reel this one in for us. The south trend is going to be real on tonight's data!!!

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

No worries, Clinton, I'm going to reel this one in for us. The south trend is going to be real on tonight's data!!!

You better reel hard!  

[mlgamer]

49 minutes ago, DSM WeatherNut said:

Strange WSW put out by DMX.  Greater expansion to come?

Southeast Iowa is in the WSW but it is being hidden on the map by the Wind Advisory. At least I think that is what you're alluding to.

[gabel23]

Congrats @CentralNebWeather you reel in another one. You been killing it all year. I'm gonna ride the line all the way to the finish line. If I had to guess I'm too far north to get anything significant. 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
207 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

NEZ072>077-082>085-151300-
/O.EXA.KGID.WS.A.0002.230215T1800Z-230216T1800Z/
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-
Including the cities of Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Minden,
Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield, Geneva,
Exeter, Fairmont, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City,
Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, Hildreth, Inavale,
Red Cloud, Blue Hill, Rosemont, and Bladen
207 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches possible with localized higher amounts. Winds could gust
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall amounts remain uncertain with
  this system. A slight shift in the track of the approaching
  winter storm could have a significant impact on snowfall
  totals.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

Congrats @CentralNebWeather you reel in another one. You been killing it all year. I'm gonna ride the line all the way to the finish line. If I had to guess I'm too far north to get anything significant. 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
207 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

NEZ072>077-082>085-151300-
/O.EXA.KGID.WS.A.0002.230215T1800Z-230216T1800Z/
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-
Including the cities of Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Minden,
Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield, Geneva,
Exeter, Fairmont, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City,
Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, Hildreth, Inavale,
Red Cloud, Blue Hill, Rosemont, and Bladen
207 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches possible with localized higher amounts. Winds could gust
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall amounts remain uncertain with
  this system. A slight shift in the track of the approaching
  winter storm could have a significant impact on snowfall
  totals.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

My goodness, was just teaching a class and the bell rang.  I clicked on the WeatherForums tab before my next class came in.  Kind of surprising to be honest, but whoa.

[tStacsh]

All these maps and I still don't know if I'm getting snow or not.  My gut says enough cold air will filter in and give me a white ground again. 

[MIKEKC]

Heck, I'll even throw Tom in there. I'll reel this one in for you too. 

WOW! what a difference between the HRRR and NAM vs. Euro and GFS

We'll know by Thursday mid-day who was drinking.

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

The NAM just seems totally lost here.  It's like it's missing some major component here that is preventing it from being even remotely accurate.  

[bud2380]

And Winter Storm Watches issued for a good chunk of Iowa, including Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. 4-7" is the preliminary call.  

[bud2380]

 

 

[tStacsh]

15 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Heck, I'll even throw Tom in there. I'll reel this one in for you too. 

WOW! what a difference between the HRRR and NAM vs. Euro and GFS

We'll know by Thursday mid-day who was drinking.

The ensembles support the HRRR and NAM

[gimmesnow]

This winter has been so disappointing but I can't look away from this storm.

[jcwxguy]

I hate to say it, but I trust the nam more than the GFS or Euro. Nam has been pretty close here all winter

[Money]

A lot of predictions based on wishcasting imo 

[gabel23]

8 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

I hate to say it, but I trust the nam more than the GFS or Euro. Nam has been pretty close here all winter

I have now seen the NWS forecast for snow double since this morning. I like to use this winter page when we get close to the event. Usually it's pretty good. OAX is the only one who breaks it down by county. Butler county to my east is forecasting 4-6". I would take that and run. 

[gabel23]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I have now seen the NWS forecast for snow double since this morning. I like to use this winter page when we get close to the event. Usually it's pretty good. OAX is the only one who breaks it down by county. Butler county to my east is forecasting 4-6". I would take that and run. 

For reference, here is what was being shown this morning. Still don't trust anything until we get to the darn event but things have trended up for sure. 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

On this Valentine's Day, the 4 corners region is going to get hit pretty good with some hefty mountain snows where much of the region needs it for their water supply.

Up in N AZ, Snowbowl Blitz coming today...I've never seen them advertise "Thundersnow" for a day's forecast...

Feb '14 (have to look at the date) we had a forecast of rain. Ended up with about 2" of T-Snow instead. That shows what kind of winter that was. #awesome!

[jaster220]

50 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

All these maps and I still don't know if I'm getting snow or not.  My gut says enough cold air will filter in and give me a white ground again. 

LOL. Didn't this thing start out as a Yooper Special? Now there might be a Watch a county or 2 north of here. Late season SE trend happen'

[tStacsh]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

LOL. Didn't this thing start out as a Yooper Special? Now there might be a Watch a county or 2 north of here. Late season SE trend happen'

NAM is even further south.   GRR discussion puts me on the southern edge of the heaviest snow...for now.  

 

"Farther north...roughly north of a Grand Haven to Mount Pleasant line, we`re looking at all snow. Decent fgen was noted in the 850- 700mb layer from 18z Thursday to 00z Friday and this roughly coincides with the trowal axis. It`s certainly possible we could see 6-8 inches of snow in this area prior to the snow ending Thursday night"

[DSM WeatherNut]

KCCI Des Moines throwing out their prediction.

[DSM WeatherNut]

NWS DMX releasing their predictions.