2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

The king has spoken  

 

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Heck, I'll even throw Tom in there. I'll reel this one in for you too. 

WOW! what a difference between the HRRR and NAM vs. Euro and GFS

We'll know by Thursday mid-day who was drinking.

Keep reeling the NAM has been rock solid.

[Grizzcoat]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

A tick NW.

DMX mentions TSSN-

Several models also suggest low static stability
with negative EPV above the frontogenetic forcing, and even token
MUCAPE noted, which are starting to be depicted as hi res
guidance and somewhat cellular simulated reflectivity come into
view on the SE flank of the system. Thundersnow is even in play.

[MKEstorm]

MKX is hesitant to issue any headlines at this time because they are not yet confident that this could be a 6” + snowfall. Currently they are projecting this to be more of a high-end advisory event…but will leave it to the midnight shift to decide.

Lol, kinda sounds like where I used to work…”Leave it for the next shift.” 
 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 406 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023)

Thursday through Tuesday:

Another low will approach from the Plains Wed night. The surface
low will track across central IL midday Thu. There is still a
little uncertainty in this track, but models are starting to show
a consensus. The upper low with this system will actually be
weakening as it lifts from the OK Panhandle into the Upper
Midwest. There is a northern upper low that will be swinging
through the Upper Midwest around the same time, Thu afternoon, but
will not entirely phase while it`s over us. That secondary wave
will just help to push colder air into southern WI, increase our
snow ratios, and perhaps increase the time we see snow falling
into Thursday night.

The liquid precip amounts (QPF) are still on track to total around
a half inch over southeast WI per the latest model ensemble runs.
The snow ratios are the big uncertainty and point of debate
between the models, and thus the snowfall totals. The other factor
limiting our confidence in the snowfall amounts is the potential
for a band of higher snowfall due to frontogenesis Thursday
afternoon. Snowfall amounts should be in the 3 to 6 inch range
across a lot of southeast WI with a narrow area of higher
amounts possible and a fairly sharp gradient on the northwest
side. Given the lack of confidence in exceeding 6 inches of snow
in any one area, we held off issuing any winter headlines such as
a Winter Storm Watch. This looks like a solid, high-end advisory
event at this time. The next round of models will allow the
midnight shift to assess the confidence in any higher amounts and
thus issue any headlines.

[Grizzcoat]

RAP has come NW in iA

[OmahaSnowFan]

Heavy snow in the grids with 3-7" forecast.... and no warning or even an advisory for me.

Wednesday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow before 3am, then patchy blowing snow after 4am. Low around 14. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Heavy snow in the grids with 3-7" forecast.... and no warning or even an advisory for me.

Wednesday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow before 3am, then patchy blowing snow after 4am. Low around 14. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sam here, but 4-8" and nothing === I thought thats what a watch was for with uncertanity.

[Grizzcoat]

Local weather gal on NBC just called out NWS for no watch for Polk Cty (DSM metro)

[gimmesnow]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Local weather gal on NBC just called out NWS for no watch for Polk Cty (DSM metro)

They've been blowing huge storms all season. My winter started off driving in my Jeep with no heat when it was 5 degrees outside, in a rush to grab my snowmobile before a giant blizzard only for no snow to show up. It's raining where I'm at so that obviously means the snow is going to go south and weak. I don't blame them for trying to save face and for no one in these offices wanting to be responsible for calling a watch or warning for a dud.

[Clinton]

EAXs take.

That comes to an end by Wednesday night when the next big weather
maker enters the region. With cold air advection continuing into the
area temperatures will already be on the cool side as the next
trough moves in Wednesday night. The thermal column will be
adequately cold across northwest Missouri for mostly snow production
as the trough approaches. Through the overnight hours on Wednesday,
into Thursday expect steady snow spreading eastward and southward
into most of northern Missouri, and eventually into west central
Missouri/eastern Kansas. Owing to the longer duration of snow
production further north, expect the higher snow amounts to occur
generally along and north of HWY 36, with lower amounts along I-70
and areas south of there. We could see widespread 4 to 6 inch
amounts in the far northern parts of the state, with reduced amounts
approaching 1 to 3 inches along I-70, and lower amounts yet south of
I-70. For now will maintain the current Watch area, but a conversion
to potentially Warning or Advisory could come later tonight once
confidence in amounts and areas satisfactorily increases.

[Grizzcoat]

Accu-Model 18Z=

[Jayhawker85]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAXs take.

That comes to an end by Wednesday night when the next big weather
maker enters the region. With cold air advection continuing into the
area temperatures will already be on the cool side as the next
trough moves in Wednesday night. The thermal column will be
adequately cold across northwest Missouri for mostly snow production
as the trough approaches. Through the overnight hours on Wednesday,
into Thursday expect steady snow spreading eastward and southward
into most of northern Missouri, and eventually into west central
Missouri/eastern Kansas. Owing to the longer duration of snow
production further north, expect the higher snow amounts to occur
generally along and north of HWY 36, with lower amounts along I-70
and areas south of there. We could see widespread 4 to 6 inch
amounts in the far northern parts of the state, with reduced amounts
approaching 1 to 3 inches along I-70, and lower amounts yet south of
I-70. For now will maintain the current Watch area, but a conversion
to potentially Warning or Advisory could come later tonight once
confidence in amounts and areas satisfactorily increases.

Would be great for the NAM to beat out the other models since they are so heavily relied on. The NAM did great on the last storm we had last week 

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 15 2023 - 00Z Sat Feb 18 2023

Lee-side cyclogenesis occurs on the southern High Plains Wednesday
with Gulf moisture wrapping around the low center (which shifts
from northeast NM across the TX Panhandle), making for heavy snow
bands over southeast CO, northern NM into the OK Panhandle and far
southwest KS where Day 1.5 snow probabilities for 8 or more inches
are moderately high. The low tracks over southern OK Wednesday
night before shifting northeast over the Mid-South and tracking
north of the Ohio River Thursday afternoon/evening.
Frontogenetical banding persist north of the low center with
moderate Day 2 probabilities for 8 or more inches stretching from
central KS through southeast Neb/northwest MO over southern and
eastern IA to the WI/IL border. This developing low will feature
particularly heavy banding that moves along its axis of
orientation and has the potential for producing a foot or more of
snow in a narrow swath. This particularly becomes true as the
system reaches the Great Lakes Thursday where northeastern flow
will enhance snow totals over southern WI/northern IL and over
portions of the north-central L.P. There will be plenty of cold
air entering into this system with deep/saturated DGZ and high
snow ratios. Day 2.5 snow probabilities are moderate for 8 or more
inches over southeastern WI/far northern IL and across
north-central L.P. Among 12Z guidance, the ECMWF and RDPS stand
out for consistency and placement of the snow band (while the NAM
is farther south and the GFS is farther north).

Enough cold air is present to allow overrunning and a stripe of
wintry mix, particularly beginning Wednesday night near the IA/MO
border, continuing across Chicagoland and south-central L.P. of MI
through Thursday. As of now the Day 2.5 ice probs over a tenth
inch or more are limited to 10-30% for a narrow stripe over the
south-central L.P.

Jackson


...Key Messages for Feb 14-17 Winter Storm...

--A winter storm reaching the Four Corners tonight will spread
heavy snow across the Southern Rockies and Plains through
Wednesday, continuing across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on
Thursday.

--Heavy snow rates and wind gusts above 40 mph will likely bring
near-blizzard conditions for the Southern High Plains. Plan on
considerable blowing and drifting of snow, very low visibility,
near impossible travel, and impacts to infrastructure. Much colder
temperatures, possibly near record lows over the Southwest, will
follow this system.

--Across the Central Plains and Great Lakes, expect a swath of
heavy snow with intense snow rates between 1-2�/hr and gusty
winds. This will result in difficult to dangerous travel
conditions Wednesday Night through Thursday.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Would be great for the NAM to beat out the other models since they are so heavily relied on. The NAM did great on the last storm we had last week 

It would be great.  If I had to pick a model right now I would pick the HRRR based the forcing it shows and what we have seen with this years pattern.

[WinterSquall23]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Must have had a new shift come in at the NWS FSD office. Zone forecast went from 1-3 inches about an hour ago to around an inch in the latest update.

The shift change was always a running joke in the PNW. The overnight shifts would go bonanza with the snow totals and everyone would get excited, then the morning/day shift would come in and lower everything across the board and everyone would get depressed again. It seems like that doesn't only happen with NWS SEA as I've noticed a similar pattern with the FSD office. 

@hawkstwelve feel your pain there dude.  Same deal when I lived over there.  I remember one snowstorm was forecast to hit Portland and then came onshore around Astoria. Seattle got hammered and Portland got slop to rain. 

[DSM WeatherNut]

47 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023


wintry mix, particularly beginning Wednesday night near the IA/MO
border, continuing across Chicagoland and south-central L.P. of MI
through Thursday. As of now the Day 2.5 ice probs over a tenth
inch or more are limited to 10-30% for a narrow stripe over the
south-central L.P.

Jackson


...K
winds. This will result in difficult to dangerous travel
conditions Wednesday Night through Thursday.

No confidence in add more counties to the North of Warren like Polk or Dallas yet.

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Jim is back on Facebook and posted this a bit ago.

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

There's a clear south and weakening trend on the Euro.  I think the local mets who are going with 3-6" max have the right idea.

[jcwxguy]

9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Jim is back on Facebook and posted this a bit ago.

not jims forecast but from nws 

[Money]

0z HRRR is coming back stronger and farther north compared to 18z

[Money]

HRRR started out stronger and north and then crapped the bed..

[OmahaSnowFan]

29 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

not jims forecast but from nws 

Right. I should have clarified

[jcwxguy]

11 minutes ago, Money said:

0z HRRR is coming back stronger and farther north compared to 18z

1.5" here barely vs 10 where i work, 30 miles lol. just a little more nw

[OmahaSnowFan]

That gradient on the 0Z HRRR

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

That gradient on the 0Z HRRR

 

probably going to be that tight though, wherever it sets up

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR is pretty disheveled-looking, overall.  When I think "big storm", it doesn't look like this pathetic 12z Thursday map. 

[jcwxguy]

nam is definitely north of 18z run

[Grizzcoat]

Nam had a good run with previous systems this winter but it appears to be caving to the big boys--

 

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

00z FV3.... still not budging from its ridiculously-wet forecast.  There's 1% chance reality is anything like this.

[Grizzcoat]

3KM also good for IA.-

Still snowing in E.IA-

[Grizzcoat]

NAM

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[East Dubzz]

Why don’t we just lock it in and give DBQ another bullseye. Thanks!