November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Really liking the chances of a moderate to strong multi-year Niño event guys. Maybe a 2014-16 redux?

Well, at least Earth will be venting loads of extra heat into space.

 

FWIW, the OLR @ the TOA has increased substantially since the 2015 El Niño. It’s still elevated now by at least 0.75W/m^2 relative to the preceding decade.

[seattleweatherguy]

Another warm front will clip the region on Saturday, with rain

increasing through the day. The cold front will shift S/SE and

inland Saturday night for additional showers and blustery

conditions. The mountains will see another 1-2 inches of rain,

with a few 3-4 inch bullseyes, keeping the rivers running high.

Expect south winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the

interior. Showers will taper off Sunday mornings as this system

exits. However, we`ll likely see another Puget Sound Convergence

Zone over the central sound.

 

 

Wow gusts to 45 may knock out the power!

[BLI snowman]

Really liking the chances of a moderate to strong multi-year Niño event guys. Maybe a 2014-16 redux?

 

The thing is that we're really not due for a good winter at this point, so in spite of all the warmth the last few years it kinda stands to reason that 2018-19 and/or 2019-20 is going to be a Nino turd. I'm pretty resigned to it.

[Jesse]

Well, at least Earth will be venting loads of extra heat into space.

 

FWIW, the OLR @ the TOA has increased substantially since the 2015 El Niño. It’s still elevated now by at least 0.75W/m^2 relative to the preceding decade.

Ice age l8r.

[TT-SEA]

Well, at least Earth will be venting loads of extra heat into space.

 

FWIW, the OLR @ the TOA has increased substantially since the 2015 El Niño. It’s still elevated now by at least 0.75W/m^2 relative to the preceding decade.

 

 

We are still paying for the massive heat release from the 2015-16 Nino... its been freezing cold ever since!  

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

How's the storied NPS looking???

 

To be fair, 2017-18 delivered widespread Christmas snow and a nice February cold spell with lowland snow, so it wasn't a fail last year.

[Jesse]

[Front Ranger]

The thing is that we're really not due for a good winter at this point, so in spite of all the warmth the last few years it kinda stands to reason that 2018-19 and/or 2019-20 is going to be a Nino turd. I'm pretty resigned to it.

 

Yeah, would be pretty shocking if one of the next two winters wasn't a complete suck-fest. 

 

Only thing going against that is low solar.

[Phil]

We are still paying for the massive heat release from the 2015-16 Nino... its been freezing cold ever since!

 

FYI: La Niña cools the atmosphere because more heat is being absorbed by the oceans (and the climate system in general). Vice versa with El Niño.

 

Heat flow is easy to misdiagnose!

[Deweydog]

To be fair, 2017-18 delivered widespread Christmas snow and a nice February cold spell with lowland snow, so it wasn't a fail last year.

To be fair, it was talked about obsessively last fall/early winter and hasn't once been mentioned this year, at least until now.

[stuffradio]

This may be something you guys will like.

 

 

 

We are about to be with that next suppressed phase of the Kelvin wave to push across the eastern Pacific! With the upcoming intraseasonal variability over the Pacific, it's likely an indication of a weakening El Nino response in the atmosphere. We may have peaked? Time will tell.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1058333704488214528

[Phil]

Haha! You have lost all credibility here!!

I never had any to begin with.

 

Daniel1 on the other hand...

[Phil]

This may be something you guys will like.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1058333704488214528

Ha, maybe I’m not crazy after all. Though I don’t think we’ve peaked in terms of the next 12-18 months. I’m still on board for a Niño next winter.

[TT-SEA]

 

FYI: La Niña cools the atmosphere because more heat is being absorbed by the oceans (and the climate system in general). Vice versa with El Niño.

 

Heat flow is easy to misdiagnose!

 

 

You were making the point that the silver lining to Ninos is that the Earth releases lots of heat into space.    

 

I said we sure paid for the 2015-16 Nino and the massive loss of heat... its been freezing cold ever since.  

[Phil]

You were making the point that the silver lining to Ninos is that the Earth releases lots of heat into space.

 

I said we sure paid for the 2015-16 Nino and the massive loss of heat... its been freezing cold ever since.

The release of heat makes the atmosphere and upper ocean warmer.

 

For example, just a tiny decrease in global wind speeds slows ocean overturning, which reduces the overall amount of heat being transferred into the oceans but warms the upper ocean and the atmosphere.

[TT-SEA]

The release of heat makes the atmosphere and upper ocean warmer.

 

For example, just a tiny decrease in global wind speeds slows ocean overturning, which reduces the overall amount of heat being transferred into the oceans but warms the upper ocean and the atmosphere.

 

 

Totally confused then... why did you say this below in response to a complaint about a strengthening Nino?

 

 

Well, at least Earth will be venting loads of extra heat into space. 

 

[Phil]

Tropical wind speeds are reduced during El Niño. This reduces deep ocean mixing and overall heat transfer into the deep oceans, which leaves more heat at the surface and the upper ocean mixed layer, where it is more readily lost to the atmosphere and space. So the system is losing heat on aggregate, via this change to the structure of the systematic heat flow.

 

Re: heat flow and ice ages..

 

One of the greatest mysteries of our climate system is how quickly ice ages end, given the massive load of energy required to melt that much ice in such a short period of time. It’s just too much. The chilly tropical SSTs during ice ages are also a mystery since insolation actually increases between 30N/30S during glacials. And if the tropics were cool..where did the heat come from?

 

Well..the answer might be simple. We know that global wind speeds were significantly elevated during the last glacial period. It’s conceivable that this was a significant increase, and that it deepened the oceanic mixing layer substantially and boosted the overall heat input into the deep oceans at/below the base of the mixing layer. That’s a huge reservoir of heat..even today it contains 75% of the entire planetary heat budget.

 

So, over tens of thousands of years, the deep oceans could have warmed substantially. And the higher wind speeds would also have cooled the SSTs and upper oceans, which explains the bizarre tropical cooling observed in the proxy data.

 

So, when orbital conditions (namely obliquity) changed again (which reduces the equator/pole insolation gradient and weakens tropical wind speeds), deep ocean mixing slowed, and that massive build-up of heat was quickly available for work at the surface through diffusion.

 

This also explains why much of the NH experienced its warmest climate period right at the start of the Holocene interglacial, while some ice sheets were still present at the high latitudes. The heat was ready there! No cascading series of feedbacks necessary.

[Phil]

[liquidsnow]

Are we at winter cancel mode yet?

[Front Ranger]

To be fair, it was talked about obsessively last fall/early winter and hasn't once been mentioned this year, at least until now.

 

You get two guesses as to why that is.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just so there’s no confusion, the initiation of the last glacial did occur during a prolific +ENSO era (albeit towards the end of it, around 118kyrs before-present). Which makes sense, given the loss of ocean heat content that would have occurred during that period.

 

By 110kyrs before-present, the windy, cold-tropics regimen was already well underway, and the +ENSO configuration was long gone.

How quickly would you estimate the major changes to take place? Thousands of years? Any indication of major temp drops over a small period of time?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Are we at winter cancel mode yet?

Early analysis isn't looking very good. It appears we will lose some ball games early and are likely in for a long season. Might backdoor our way into a relatively meaningless win late in the campaign and it looks like our first round pick is going to be a bust.

[Geos]

Really wet day here. 0.86" and with 0.14" yesterday @ 1" for the month so far. 

All the ditches were rushing like rivers in the local area on the hill this morning - it was quite impressive. Can keep my fingers crossed that the CZ returns later, but with a temperatures 20 degrees cooler. 

[Omegaraptor]

Not a single drop of rain in the Portland area so far this November while Seattle north gets drenched. 

[Front Ranger]

Early analysis isn't looking very good. It appears we will lose some ball games early and are likely in for a long season. Might backdoor our way into a relatively meaningless win late in the campaign and it looks like our first round pick is going to be a bust.

 

Might want to start looking at +ENSO analogs that had significant cold air masses into the middle of the country in November...

[Deweydog]

You get two guesses as to why that is.

1. Rising interest rates.

 

2. Californication.

[Phil]

How quickly would you estimate the major changes to take place? Thousands of years? Any indication of major temp drops over a small period of time?

The changes that we observe (IE: in the atmosphere and upper ocean mixing layer) can occur very quickly, but that’s sort of an illusion, because the changes in the full-system heat budget (full ocean budgets included) occur much more gradually. The glacial inception itself (~117.5kyrs ago) was quick, and established in ~ 470yrs. However, the drawdown of heat that preceded it took several thousand years.

 

The glaciation itself was just a threshold crossing by the global atmospheric circulation in response to a tightening insolation gradient (IE: cold summers, warm winters across the high latitudes due to a dampened ITCZ seasonality under weak obliquity). The globe was actually quite “warm” overall at the time, with sea levels several meters higher than today when the glaciation started. But high latitude summers were cold, which prompted ice buildup.

[TT-SEA]

Really wet day here. 0.86" and with 0.14" yesterday @ 1" for the month so far.

All the ditches were rushing like rivers in the local area on the hill this morning - it was quite impressive. Can keep my fingers crossed that the CZ returns later, but with a temperatures 20 degrees cooler.

Ditches down the road are full to the brim now and close to spilling over. Waterfall behind our house is a absolutely roaring now... you can hear it in the house. Last time for both was in mid-April after 17 inches of rain in 17 days.

[liquidsnow]

Early analysis isn't looking very good. It appears we will lose some ball games early and are likely in for a long season. Might backdoor our way into a relatively meaningless win late in the campaign and it looks like our first round pick is going to be a bust.

Oh **** that. Sell what we can, ride pine the rest of the year and maybe look at relocation by the next offseason.

[Blizzard777]

Are we at winter cancel mode yet?

Goonies never give up! Even if all the indicators state otherwise and yes, I do wait for the Great pumpkin every year and bet on the long shots on the craps table...lol. This winter is going to be awesome.....because I’m going back to Hawaii

[AbbyJr]

I’m okay with it.

 

Keep the intraseasonal cycle in mind, though. Spikes like this tend to happen when WHEM forcing is timed well with a DOKW in the EPAC, just before it begins its diffraction phase. You get an equatorward collapse of water.

 

It wouldn’t shock me at all if this is the peak. At least until later next year.

[MossMan]

Eventful 24hrs...Another 3/4” of rain just in a few hours overnight last night. Ditches are full! Lots of wind as well, generator did great!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Dry and 52. Should be able to take the kiddos to the park tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Dry and 52. Should be able to take the kiddos to the park tomorrow.

Next warm front will be here by morning with rain all day!

 

A one day break would be really nice. And the same areas that were were wet today will be wet again Sunday. And Monday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Next warm front will be here by morning with rain all day!

 

A one day break would be really nice. And the same areas that were were wet today will be wet again Sunday. And Monday.

North/south trend continues.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Omg it's raining in November!!!!

[TT-SEA]

North/south trend continues.

 

 

Yep... really getting old.    I would love for the storms to focus down there for awhile.   

[High Desert Mat!]

For what it's worth or not worth, I've recorded an actual .12 since late June. It's been (all) in the last week. Getting really old. Tim, send me some reservations for the east side will ya? I need the immersive mojo.

[TT-SEA]

For what it's worth or not worth, I've recorded an actual .12 since late June. It's been (all) in the last week. Getting really old. Tim, send me some reservations for the east side will ya? I need the immersive mojo.

I sure wish I could change it!