November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

In SoCal now... smoke from Ventura County is all blowing out to sea. The rest of SoCal is crystal clear with incredible visibility and warm temps.

[MossMan]

Not the be the bearer of bad news, but..

 

..there are zero cases of a niño year with a wave-1 amplitude below 400 throughout the 11/1 to 12/15 period producing Arctic intrusion into the NW US at any time during NDJ. At least since the inception of the satellite era in 1979.

 

We need to see signs of wave amplification, ASAP.

**** **** ****. At least we have February and March!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

In SoCal now... smoke from Ventura County is all blowing out to sea. The rest of SoCal is crystal clear with incredible visibility and warm temps.

Eat at restaurant in pirates of the Caribbean ride. Awesome food.

[Requiem]

How do the models look for a pattern change? Do the ensembles look good?

[Phil]

Pretty cool video. Depicts the vertical structure of the vortex..more complex than many realize.

 

https://www.youtube.com/embed/XI66lRP2DHY

 

Inside it, O^3 is being destroyed/dissociating as temperatures cool rapidly. The thermal gradient tightens and accelerates the zonal component to streamflow.

 

Dislodging this machine =

[Jesse]

**** **** ****. At least we have February and March!

Not in a Niño year!!!!!

[Front Ranger]

I hate those motherfookers. Working in landscaping I’ve probably been stung over 300 times cumulatively over the last 5yrs.

 

They were going strong here until late October, when a freeze finally killed them off.

 

Phil Stat! 

[Front Ranger]

Could be worse.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be worse.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59.png

 

I'm not really pulling for anything special this month, just at least a start to the snowpack. 

[Front Ranger]

I'm not really pulling for anything special this month, just at least a start to the snowpack. 

 

I like the second half of December for you guys, maybe early January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the second half of December for you guys, maybe early January.

 

That was the peak of winter in 2014-15 too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Cold last night on the high desert.

[westiztehbest]

First snow of the season this afternoon. Got aboot an inch.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Trees have a nice little coat of snow on Snoqualmie.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First snow of the season this afternoon. Got aboot an inch.

 

That's awesome. Spokane is a great area.

[luvssnow_spokane]

That's awesome. Spokane is a great area.

I look to be moving to Spokane this spring or early summer at this point. I can hardly wait!

[Guest Dome Buster]

Moat likely a crap winter but one snowstorm of 6+ is still something we can get. Its the anticipation that is fun.

[luvssnow_spokane]

First snow of the season this afternoon. Got aboot an inch.

What part of Spokane do you live in, if you live there? Any recommendations for someone moving over there from the westside?

[Phil]

Pretty cool.

 

https://www.nature.com/news/1998/020708/full/news020708-19.html

[ShawniganLake]

Could be worse.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59.png

Worse

 

[High Desert Mat!]

Moat is the new density!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Worse

 

C0297E47-19D4-4B17-A8E7-E8370102CC31.png

Oh well

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 42 and cloudy. 53/28 today. 

[MossMan]

Currently 42 and cloudy. 53/28 today.

Warm! I had a high of 42.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm! I had a high of 42.

 

It was sunny most of the day.

 

Salem hit 51 today so a bit of an inversion. 

[snow_wizard]

The weather has finally gotten my interest.  Nothing like a couple of chilly days to do that!

 

42/29 for the temperature range today IMBY.

 

All in all it looks like a couple of decently chilly weeks coming up.  

[snow_wizard]

41/29 today. Impressively chilly.

 

For sure.  This is a solid cold snap for the first third of November.  I really like the way today's cold front moved through.  A rapid shift back to northerly winds / flow after a brief southerly component just before the front passed.

[jcmcgaffey]

SEA had a high of 43. Better than nothing. Skies are pretty clear so I am thinking most places are going be lower than projected tonight.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of conflicting signals for this winter so it's a tough call.  I'm thinking a mixed winter with a couple of enjoyable events.  We are on the downhill side of a DEEP solar minimum and it's an 8-9 winter so a great one is not out of the question.  One thing I like is we've seen a recurring GOA / 150W high over the past several weeks.  No reason to think we won't continue to see that alternate with the crap pattern that has also been recurring.

[jcmcgaffey]

A lot of conflicting signals for this winter so it's a tough call. I'm thinking a mixed winter with a couple of enjoyable events. We are on the downhill side of a DEEP solar minimum and it's an 8-9 winter so a great one is not out of the question. One thing I like is we've seen a recurring GOA / 150W high over the past several weeks. No reason to think we won't continue to see that alternate with the crap pattern that has also been recurring.

a lot of the best events happen when we think it think it’s least likely. The way the general pattern has been this year it seems that extremes aren’t the theme but longevity, it doesn’t seem like we will see a heavy snow or extreme cold event but more likely to see a very long cold snap with maybe a little snow on the ground.

[snow_wizard]

a lot of the best events happen when we think it think it’s least likely. The way the general pattern has been this year it seems that extremes aren’t the theme but longevity, it doesn’t seem like we will see a heavy snow or extreme cold event but more likely to see a very long cold snap with maybe a little snow on the ground.

 

I was thinking about that possible outcome today.  You might be onto something.

[Front Ranger]

0z says OR gets a nice soaking next weekend.

[MossMan]

0z says OR gets a nice soaking next weekend.

Yay!!

[Blizzard777]

42/30 and currently 39

[Dave]

Welp, onto step 2

Wheelbarrow ice cube season doesn't really start down here until cold a** inversion season ramps up. Usually around Nov 20th. Plenty of time for the wheelbarrow to naturally fill up.

[Jesse]

49/29 today with morning fog and frost, then partly cloudy to overcast conditions later on.

 

Coldest day of the season so far, and also the first high in the 40s, first low in the 20s, and first freeze.

[MossMan]

Raining...again!

[Phil]

00z GFS has better wave activity towards the end.

 

We’ll see. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018111000&fh=-54

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z gets really close in the long range. 

[Phil]