Jump to content

November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Timmy Supercell

Recommended Posts

A new month is upon us, and maybe the beginning of winter for the cascades. 

 

Happy Halloween!

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's to an active cold season. At the very least I'm hoping to get that coldest high number a little lower in the coming weeks.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking pretty ninoish to me.

It is niño-ish, but the meridional expanse of the WPAC warm pool definitely doesn’t jive with it. That’s just a downright outrageous anomaly right there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest daniel1

It is niño-ish, but the meridional expanse of the WPAC warm pool definitely doesn’t jive with it. That’s just a downright outrageous anomaly right there.

WOUld that fuel more dateline forcing going forward?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Perfect night for trick-or-treating. Rain stopped around 5 and it was dry and a little breezy and quite warm. Streets were packed with kids. Very festive. Several houses were having adult parties in the garage and driveway and a couple were handing out jello shots for the parents in addition to candy for the kids. :)

 

Just a tiny bit of drizzle here and there here. Overall just cloudy though. The mild weather brought out quite a few kids this year. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This was November 5th at Lake Goodwin.

Currently light rain and 54.

 

Won't forget that. 

Lakemont area after the snow.

 

post-7-0-00466600-1541080509_thumb.jpg

 

Hopefully the snow will come later in November this time around.

  • Like 2

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Driest start to the year since 2008 for Seattle. Although the number of rainy days has been the same. This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years.

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/despite-recent-soggy-weather-its-driest-start-to-a-year-in-a-decade

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Driest start to the year since 2008 for Seattle. Although the number of rainy days has been the same. This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years.

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/despite-recent-soggy-weather-its-driest-start-to-a-year-in-a-decade

 

 

And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year.    And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018.   This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area.

 

A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year. And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018. This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area.

 

A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years.

I am hoping this seemingly change in the overall weather pattern recently will mean some better snow chances coming up.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just about 0.05" of rain since midnight. Should be a mostly dry day. The first half of November is looking mellow and mild. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WOUld that fuel more dateline forcing going forward?

Yes, but if the off-equator SSTs are on fire like this, it might not work out in the manner you’re thinking.

 

The defining characteristic of El Niño is an equatorward contraction of Pacific convection from 120W - dateline. This looks more like a broad/inverted WPAC exhaust pipe, with some similarity to 2014/15. Big difference this year is solar/timing of QBO flip (earlier).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years.

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/despite-recent-soggy-weather-its-driest-start-to-a-year-in-a-decade

I’ve noticed a pretty stark difference here too. The weather has more “attitude” this year compated the last several years. Goes balls to the wall, then pulls back as if contemplating something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In my gut, I really do think we’re going to shift away from the perpetual vortex-dominated pattern that’s been unrelenting since 2014. Of course, the objective data seems to suggest otherwise..

 

Who knows?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First half of the month could end up warm and dry! Figures...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At long last, after a stretch of higher solar wind/geomagnetic activity, the AP index has returned to lower values more typical of solar minimum.

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

November is such a crucial month in regards to geomagnetic forcing on upper atmospheric boundary conditions (it’s also a predictive precursor to SC25 amplitude at this point in the solar cycle). We want to see the AP index as low as possible for the next 2-3 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty strong PV during the second half of October this year. From October 10th onward the vortex has had a free ride.

 

Still thinking this will (generally) continue to be the theme until December..then I suspect we see a wave-1 style displacement event occur (likely before New Years).

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest daniel1

Yes, but if the off-equator SSTs are on fire like this, it might not work out in the manner you’re thinking.

 

The defining characteristic of El Niño is an equatorward contraction of Pacific convection from 120W - dateline. This looks more like a broad/inverted WPAC exhaust pipe, with some similarity to 2014/15. Big difference this year is solar/timing of QBO flip (earlier).

But what if it’s more closer to the dateline? The cfs vp forecasts are indicating that could happen in later November/ early Dec.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

But what if it’s more closer to the dateline? The cfs vp forecasts are indicating that could happen in later November/ early Dec.

What are you referring to? Velocity potential? If you’re looking for the predictive value in regional long range forecasting, there’s more the tropical forcing than merely the longitude of the largest anomalies in divergence/VP. The wavenumber and the various pathways of fluxes to/from the extratropics are all important.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

attachicon.gifDB82CD3D-0BB0-43F3-9461-B0555EDAF774.jpeg

 

Mt Hood forecast. As schizophrenic as rainy season forecasts are (yesterday it was going to be sunny next week, now it’s going to rain, apparently) I’m still excited.

 

I assume that is for the 11,000' level.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest daniel1

What are you referring to? Velocity potential? If you’re looking for the predictive value in regional long range forecasting, there’s more the tropical forcing than merely the longitude of the largest anomalies in divergence/VP. The wavenumber and the various pathways of fluxes to/from the extratropics are all important.

Yes the velocity potential. I know there’s more to it but is it favoured by the end of the month? Also do you see the aleutian low coming back anytime soon?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting that after a low of 17 a few mornings back, that I ended up with 30 and 36. Right now my window is open. 

 

Yes we have heating system usually turned on now, so the rest of the house would not really notice.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year.    And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018.   This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area.

 

A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years.

 

Meaning?

 

YearPNormWA.png

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seattle area.   

 

I'm surprised you are not trumpeting the mid/long range GFS which is dry and warm. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm surprised you are not trumpeting the mid/long range GFS which is dry and warm. 

 

 

Been in a meeting all morning... while the rain has been absolutely pounding on the roof here.      Sounds like tropical rain out there.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been in a meeting all morning... while the rain has been absolutely pounding on the roof here.      Sounds like tropical rain out there.    

 

Looking at the national radar I am going to guess you are in either Nashville, St. Louis, or Columbus!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...