MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Whoa! Differences!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Whoa! Differences!!!Why can’t we all be the same...like 1950 same... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 We should have another exciting weather event discussion while we wait for models. My favorite weather event, by the way, is BY FAR January 10th-11th, 2017. 16.5 inches at my house, winds were gusty and a heavy fog as snow fell in the middle of the night in an intensity I had never seen before (at least not since 2008). What an event! Thundersnow over the metro area, snow rates of 2-4 inches an hour, heavy winds in the East Metro, and training cells filled with snow. Not to forget the looks on every met's face as the snow totals kept going up and up and the storm truly impressed the naysayers (Matt Zaffino's "dusting to an inch" forecast was my favorite part). Also it was one of the few times Mark Nelsen has been wrong in my experience. This event was truly one of the most beastly winter events in the PACNW (yes, even though it was quite localized).I remember seeing Mark's forecast go from 1 to 4 inches, to 1 to 6 inches, to 1 to 8 and so on... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Why can’t we all be the same...like 1950 same...There were still weenies on the outside looking in at times even in January 1950. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Yeah, that won't verify. The 850mb record over Fairbanks is something like -41, and that's for any winter month. I doubt the Yukon has ever seen -50 at that level.Famous last words? Yeah, highly unlikely to verify. Tough to shut down warm advection for that long. Though I suppose it’s *theoretically* possible, given the instances of sub -45C 850mb anomalies (in Alberta during March 2017 and Labrador during February 2018). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 There were still weenies on the outside looking in at times even in January 1950.Hard to imagine that. Does Fred have the forum archives for that event? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just over 1.5” here today. Should be able to get over 2” on the day. SEA somehow not even to an inch yet while everyone else is well over. I’ll have to look up the record rain for today for SEA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I think he moved in 2011 That is correct I moved up in late August 2011. It was very cold up here in 2010, so I just missed it by about a year. We had a heavy snowfall in November 2011, but the high was in the mid-30s. Coldest day of the event at Silver Falls in 2010 was 26/18, They also had a 32/21 day on 11/30/15, but it was 34 for a high here. It's quite interesting because I average more snowfall in November yet it seems like in March I can see more snowy "days" distributed either in small amounts here and there or also can fall as wet snow on several occasions in the same March. There have been a few years where November sees its entire average occur in just 1 night or over the course of a day. Yeah, high temperatures here will likely end a little above average, but my lows are running below at the same time. Well most of the snow here in March is with cold onshore flow, which would shadow you. Which explains the light amounts. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Hard to imagine that. Does Fred have the forum archives for that event?It was just typical Jesse vs. Tim slash Tim vs. Jesse stuff only colder and snowier. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just over 1.5” here today. Should be able to get over 2” on the day. SEA somehow not even to an inch yet while everyone else is well over. I’ll have to look up the record rain for today for SEA.Other than drips and dribbles up here we have largely been in the shadow all day! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Looking up some data for Madras, OR tonight. My friend just moved over to Crooked River Ranch this year and he's wanting to know what the climate is capable of over there. It sits between Madras and Redmond, but so far his obs seem closer to Madras than Redmond. Great radiational cooling. High Desert Matt, any insights? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Famous last words? Yeah, highly unlikely to verify. Tough to shut down warm advection for that long. Though I suppose it’s *theoretically* possible, given the instances of sub -45C 850mb anomalies (in Alberta during March 2017 and Labrador during February 2018). It almost looks like that pocket of extremely cold 850's over the Yukon is terrain related. That's elevated terrain with cold valleys. The model might not be picking up true free-air 850mb conditions...more of a low level situation. Just guessing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just over 1.5” here today. Should be able to get over 2” on the day. SEA somehow not even to an inch yet while everyone else is well over. I’ll have to look up the record rain for today for SEA. 1.34 in 2009. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 1.34 in 2009.Arctic outbreaked a week or so later. Hmmmm... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Other than drips and dribbles up here we have largely been in the shadow all day!. I wouldn’t normally expect you to be in the rain shadow with this direction of a system and your new location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Radar really filling in now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 It almost looks like that pocket of extremely cold 850's over the Yukon is terrain related. That's elevated terrain with cold valleys. The model might not be picking up true free-air 850mb conditions...more of a low level situation. Just guessing.Yeah, the terrain would help build cold with a pattern like that. No wave driving to ventilate the cold south, and the terrain blocks warm advection off the Pacific while regional streamflow is easterly (under the blocking high centered over northern Siberia). So the cold is just bottled up against the terrain with nowhere to go. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I remember seeing Mark's forecast go from 1 to 4 inches, to 1 to 6 inches, to 1 to 8 and so on... The FOX12WEATHERBLOG that day was...something else. On a bad day I go there and read the comments and it cheers me right up! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 . I wouldn’t normally expect you to be in the rain shadow with this direction of a system and your new location. The rain shadow reached past Bellingham and Mt. Vernon and almost down to Everett at times today. His new location is perfectly placed to the NE of the Olympics for shadowing in a warm conveyor belt set up from the SW. All depending on the strength of the flow of course. It needs to be fairly strong and it was today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Nice system for CA on Thursday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Well, it's raining, though I have a feeling we aren't going to get the 1.2-1.5 inches predicted. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 January 1930 in Madras was a total beast. Mean temp of 12.2, and lows of -40 and -35. Incredible. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Well, it's raining, though I have a feeling we aren't going to get the 1.2-1.5 inches predicted. Predicted rainfall for portland was about 0.5-1" in most forecasts I saw. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Rain tapering off for a few hours down here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 ICON sure is dry after we through this frontal band. Looks quite lovely... if only we had a good base in the mountains and the resorts were all opened. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 ICON sure is dry after we through this frontal band. Looks quite lovely... if only we had a good base in the mountains and the resorts were all opened.Gotta rain somewhere for there to be mountain snow. One of the sad facts of life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I can already tell the long range on the 00z is gonna be different. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 We should have another exciting weather event discussion while we wait for models. My favorite weather event, by the way, is BY FAR January 10th-11th, 2017. 16.5 inches at my house, winds were gusty and a heavy fog as snow fell in the middle of the night in an intensity I had never seen before (at least not since 2008). What an event! Thundersnow over the metro area, snow rates of 2-4 inches an hour, heavy winds in the East Metro, and training cells filled with snow. Not to forget the looks on every met's face as the snow totals kept going up and up and the storm truly impressed the naysayers (Matt Zaffino's "dusting to an inch" forecast was my favorite part). Also it was one of the few times Mark Nelsen has been wrong in my experience. This event was truly one of the most beastly winter events in the PACNW (yes, even though it was quite localized).That was really bad on Zaffino's part. I remember the best forecast was from Steve Pierce. He mentioned that a wildcard would be if a possible deformation band set up we could get clobbered. He was the only one to mention it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 You all can thank me now, I am having surgery on my back on 12/6, guarenteed goodies of the winter weather variety will occur shortly after that day while I am recovering and cannot enjoy it myself!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 You all can thank me now, I am having surgery on my back on 12/6, guarenteed goodies of the winter weather variety will occur shortly after that day while I am recovering and cannot enjoy it myself!!I have surgery on 12-27. Time for the reload! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Looking up some data for Madras, OR tonight. My friend just moved over to Crooked River Ranch this year and he's wanting to know what the climate is capable of over there. It sits between Madras and Redmond, but so far his obs seem closer to Madras than Redmond. Great radiational cooling. High Desert Matt, any insights?Your friend is going to get jealous of Bend and points south. It seems they always have the snow when it's on the fringe. I think from Madras south for every 3 miles you go, the snowfall average goes up about an inch annually. He should get used to the inversions. We've already seen one where last week it was 27 most of the day in Madras with sleet and zr whereas at my house in Redmond it was 50 and partly cloudy. Redmond is about the cutoff for the average inversion, Bend will get them when it's deeper obviously. Crooked River Ranch is more like Terrebonne which is only 6 or so miles north of me. I hope he likes a dry climate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 That was really bad on Zaffino's part. I remember the best forecast was from Steve Pierce. He mentioned that a wildcard would be if a possible deformation band set up we could get clobbered. He was the only one to mention it. Yeah, other mets were at least going with 1-5 inches. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Looking up some data for Madras, OR tonight. My friend just moved over to Crooked River Ranch this year and he's wanting to know what the climate is capable of over there. It sits between Madras and Redmond, but so far his obs seem closer to Madras than Redmond. Great radiational cooling. High Desert Matt, any insights?Sounds like he's moved to Terrebonne? Wonderful community there with beautiful properties. Your friend made a good move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Only a little over half an inch of rain here in the shadow today. Considerably more rain further north and south of here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Madras 2200', Redmond 3000', Bend 3600' La Pine 4300'. Su river sure seems to get clobbered pretty good every winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I have surgery on 12-27. Time for the reload!Who will be your backup forum poster while you are on injured reserve? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 528dm line DANGEROUSLY close Sunday evening. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 528dm line DANGEROUSLY close Sunday evening. Stratiform precip dangerously close as well... just 1,300 miles away around Denver! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I have surgery on 12-27. Time for the reload!I had my surgery in May! Mine was to re-attach my Achilles tendon. PT said I am now okay to jump around in the snow. Must mean something! Although they say I am getting too old now to really jump around like I used too so maybe not as much snow:(. Maybe my age is tied to global warming... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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