November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

2008 and 2010 stand out in my memory... cold and snow soon followed.

 

And of course there is 1949.

Should adjust for ENSO, though. Those were all Niñas.

[AbbyJr]

Should adjust for ENSO, though. Those were all Niñas.

So Phil, do you think the PNW and Vancouver BC area has a decent shot at one or two arctic blasts and snow events this winter despite El Nino?

[Front Ranger]

SEA's November 1-10 record highs are from 1981, 1970, 2010, 1949, 1960, 1976, 2008, 1987, and 1997.

 

One great December, a couple decent ones, and a number of forgettable ones in there.

 

Only 3 terrible winters followed.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Based on the analogs Ive been following including 1996, I see a good chance of a good snowstorm followed by some impressive rain late november/december. Maybe mid december. I see december being a very wet month before the normal el nino ridge sets in jan/feb. Although with this strange pattern all bets are off. March snowstorm anyone?

[Esquimalt]

Based on the analogs Ive been following including 1996, I see a good chance of a good snowstorm followed by some impressive rain late november/december. Maybe mid december. I see december being a very wet month before the normal el nino ridge sets in jan/feb. Although with this strange pattern all bets are off. March snowstorm anyone?

Some of the analogs do feature a heavy feb/March snowfall event, even if it's a weak to moderate el nino.  It'll be interesting to see if we can pull that off this year.  

[Esquimalt]

One of those rare days when we see more shadowing than you guys.

It's that perfect W-NW flow that benefits us more than you.  

[TT-SEA]

2008 and 2010 stand out in my memory... cold and snow soon followed.  

 

And of course there is 1949.  

 

Good point.

[Geos]

Honestly hard to tell that happened today.   It is incredibly dark for being early afternoon.   No doubt the darkest day of the year.    About as dark as it can be here for the middle of the day.  

 

 

Yeah today was a really gloomy day. Just noticed a few breaks at sunset over the Bothell area. Nice and mild though. About 61 today here. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah today was a really gloomy day. Just noticed a few breaks at sunset over the Bothell area. Nice and mild though. About 61 today here. 

 

 

It was just normal gloomy for most of this afternoon out here after that crazy dark period around mid-day.    It was really strange around lunch.   I truly can't remember ever seeing it that dark at that time of day here.   It was like 20 minutes after sunset on a cloudy day... but in the middle of the day.

 

And right around sunset... the dark clouds turned red for about 2-3 minutes so I knew the sun was peaking through somewhere to the west.    Also good confirmation that the Earth is still orbiting its star.    I was getting worried that we had spun out of orbit and were racing towards deep space.      

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Soaked with 0.12" of rain today. 54/51 stuck in the clouds!

[Jesse]

Good point.

The cold was later in November in 2010, and centered in January/February (cold and snow is mostly an annoyance by then) in 1949-50. Justin mentioned 2008 being the only year it actually worked out in December.

[TT-SEA]

Soaked with 0.12" of rain today. 54/51 stuck in the clouds!

Over 8 inches here since one week ago today.

 

Probably won't continue at that rate for too much longer. We don't average 35 inches of rain in November.

[TT-SEA]

The cold was later in November in 2010, and centered in January/February (cold and snow is mostly an annoyance by then) in 1949-50. Justin mentioned 2008 being the only year it actually worked out in December.

I know. I just remember the crazy swing after the warmth in early November 2010. We were buried in snow just 3 weeks later.

[Jesse]

I know. I just remember the crazy swing after the warmth in early November 2010. We were buried in snow just 3 weeks later.

Sure, but you said it’s specifically a good sign for December. Seems pretty mixed.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

61F after sunset.  Warm night.

[MossMan]

Lost power for the first time at the new place, it is quite awesome having a generator that plugs into the house and runs quite a bit of the place!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Yeah today was a really gloomy day. Just noticed a few breaks at sunset over the Bothell area. Nice and mild though. About 61 today here. 

 

Not a nice day except for people with reverse SAD

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lost power for the first time at the new place, it is quite awesome having a generator that plugs into the house and runs quite a bit of the place!

 

I had to drop $3600 on a new well pump last week. No generator this year!

[MossMan]

I had to drop $3600 on a new well pump last week. No generator this year!

How old was your well pump? That was a fear at the old place, the well pump expert that came out after we had some issues (was a switch luckily) said we were well into borrowed time with the pump. Hopefully the pump at the new place will last a long time yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How old was your well pump? That was a fear at the old place, the well pump expert that came out after we had some issues (was a switch luckily) said we were well into borrowed time with the pump. Hopefully the pump at the new place will last a long time yet.

 

It was 20 years old. So about at its life expectancy. They can last longer. My dad's was installed in 1963. He used to have two, one went out about 10 years ago and he's been using the other pump since and its still going fine. He'll probably replace them both when it finally goes. 

 

Mine went out though because of an electrical issue. The line to the pump wasn't giving it enough voltage, so it had to work extra hard. 

[El_Nina]

It's dripping outside off the leaves onto the forest floor.

[ShawniganLake]

Soggy out on the coast today, no surprise. Over 6” at Tahsis. Close to 3” in the past few hours.

[MossMan]

Just over 1.5” in the last 24hrs. Power just came back on...man the generator here at the new place is going to be awesome! Still got to watch the blowout of the football game, lights, and no spoiled food this winter!

[luminen]

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Just updated my climate table for this year. Precipitation days over 1mm are from Wunderground, everything else is NOAA. I would attach this to my signature, but I can't figure out how.

 

Big difference between here and Portland:

[TT-SEA]

Soggy out on the coast today, no surprise. Over 6” at Tahsis. Close to 3” in the past few hours.

Just over 1.5” in the last 24hrs. Power just came back on...man the generator here at the new place is going to be awesome! Still got to watch the blowout of the football game, lights, and no spoiled food this winter!

 

Are you fools reporting actual conditions and significant rain??

 

SEA and OLM were in the rain shadow so therefore nothing happened anywhere.

 

Randy averages 1.5 inches per day... and 45 inches for November. Typical day.

 

Tahsis must average 180 inches for November. Impressive. 6 inches per day every day is slightly wet.

[jcmcgaffey]

Not sure if it’s accurate but I saw that the record low for Seattle today was 0deg in 1939.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Ton of shadowing today in the swamp. Dry all day... If it was cold enough for snow I would be totally losing my mind.  Loved the 60 degree totally dry day here. Awesome!

[MossMan]

Ton of shadowing today in the swamp. Dry all day... If it was cold enough for snow I would be totally losing my mind. Loved the 60 degree totally dry day here. Awesome!

Lucky!!

[TT-SEA]

Not sure if it’s accurate but I saw that the record low for Seattle today was 0deg in 1939.

 

 

Record low at SEA today is 30... set in 2003.    Period of record only goes back to 1948 there.

 

I can tell you it was 57/32 on 11/1/1939 at Snoqualmie Falls.    Sounds like a lovely day... almost 60 degrees and dry.  

[jcmcgaffey]

Record low at SEA today is 30... set in 2003. Period of record only goes back to 1948 there.

 

I can tell you it was 57/32 on 11/1/1939 at Snoqualmie Falls. Sounds like a lovely day... almost 60 degrees and dry.

must be a screwed up number. I was going to say the only record low of 0 was in January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure if it’s accurate but I saw that the record low for Seattle today was 0deg in 1939.

 

Not accurate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Record low at SEA today is 30... set in 2003.    Period of record only goes back to 1948 there.

 

I can tell you it was 57/32 on 11/1/1939 at Snoqualmie Falls.    Sounds like a lovely day... almost 60 degrees and dry.  

 

Their record low is 30?! Wow. 

[Blizzard777]

Lost power for the first time at the new place, it is quite awesome having a generator that plugs into the house and runs quite a bit of the place!

Someday will need to invest in something like that!

Our power just went off for a moment (Federal Way)

 

Gusting to 17 mph according to my machine and that in a sheltered area

Currently a toasty 60*

[Andrew.]

As we head into the winter months I figured some here might be interested in Portlands all time single snow storm records. Also interesting to note is that the winter of 1968-69 didnt make the top 10 for single storm records, but did produce 34 inches at the airport overall during an el nino year nonetheless. The all time snowiest month goes to January 1950 with 41 inches that January at the airport. Can you imagine what some of these totals were above 500-1000 feet in the hills around town?

 

If it's happened before it can happen again.

 

Here all the all time single storm records:

 

10. January 1950: 13 inches

 

9. January 1890: 13.2 inches

 

8. January 1950: 16.1 inches

 

7. January 1980: 16.3 inches

 

6. January-February 1937: 16.8 inches

 

5. December 1919: 17.5 inches

 

4. January 1943: 19.2 inches

 

This storm includes another Portland record: the single highest snowfall day, 15.5 inches on Jan. 21, according to NOAA data.

 

3. December 1884: 22.3 inches

 

2. January-February 1916: 27.9 inches

 

1. January-February 1893: 31.8 inches

[ShawniganLake]

Just had a gust close to 30mph here. Forecast shows gusts 40-45mph across southern Vancouver Island tonight. Looks like the type of setup that will see Shawnigan Lake get sheltered from the hills to our west.

[Esquimalt]

Just had a gust close to 30mph here. Forecast shows gusts 40-45mph across southern Vancouver Island tonight. Looks like the type of setup that will see Shawnigan Lake get sheltered from the hills to our west.

Yeah wind warning in effect here.  I can just see the main frontal band of precip coming in on radar now. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah wind warning in effect here.  I can just see the main frontal band of precip coming in on radar now. 

 

This front is going to be moving through really fast.   It will be in central Oregon and western Montana by dawn.

 

[Esquimalt]

This front is going to be moving through really fast.   It will be in central Oregon and western Montana by dawn.

 

Crazy.  I wonder if we'll equal your "heavy" rain with this one.  

[TT-SEA]

Crazy.  I wonder if we'll equal your "heavy" rain with this one.  

 

We get 1.3 inches in 2 hours almost every day.  Sometimes 4 or 5 times in one day.  Its defined officially as sprinkles.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s silly wet! We don’t need the entire monthly average happen in just one day! Though if I remember correctly November 2006 started out much the same way...then we got hammered by 17” of snow right after Thanksgiving!

That was a crazy active stormy month. I’m not sure of another that compares. It was pretty awesome