OmahaSnowFan Posted February 17, 2023 Report Share Posted February 17, 2023 This one’s staying north. Hope we either get all rain or dry slotted at this point and can avoid any ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 17, 2023 Report Share Posted February 17, 2023 37 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: This one’s staying north. Hope we either get all rain or dry slotted at this point and can avoid any ice. I have the same feeling about this one as well, right now this looks like an FSD to MSP special (once again)... @hawkstwelve and @james1976 are looking to reel in yet another one! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2023 Report Share Posted February 17, 2023 Bigger area of fzr this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 17, 2023 Report Share Posted February 17, 2023 So this will be two just to the south and one to the north in 3 weeks. Lovely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, Bellona said: So this will be two just to the south and one to the north in 3 weeks. Lovely. It’s a little early to say that. and it can go north all it wants if it means we don’t get freezing rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Someone has mentioned that this could cause a very nasty outbreak in Dixie Alley, it all starts on Wednesday at my location! I know someone in UP Michigan. She's going to be blitzed by this. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 0z icon with a big shift south 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Not sure if that's a shift south on GFS or just expanding it. About a county shift in ice from 18z. Puts me back in the interesting zone at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Waterloo must get rocked with sleet on the GDPS. Only .6 snow and no ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, Bellona said: Waterloo must get rocked with sleet on the GDPS. Only .6 snow and no ice. Ya, same with Milwaukee! Those 3 inches arrive in that first wave…then it’s a sleet fest! Yet the 0z GFS has my area for .50 ice! So, this is something to monitor for sure! It will be interesting to see what the EURO puts on the table. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, Money said: Ukie Ha 8.5 inches of snow So far in the three main 0z models, one is giving me a lot of snow, one is giving me a lot of sleet…and the other is giving me a lot of ice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Enjoy your 1-2 feet of snow SoDak and Minnesota. The Euro did not come further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 0z Euro...man, what Beast for the Upper MW/Yoopers/N Woods...Cascade Mtn looks to do good if your riding the ICON/EURO/GGEM... 0z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 not getting excited, not getting excited, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 What a dream storm for those in the path. The area of snow is so large that even minor wobbles won’t make a difference. But the track has barely moved for days. It’s going to be a direct hit for basically all of SD and MN and the north half of WI 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 MSP is looking golden S. WI will probably depend on how far north the low gets and how strong. Looks like euro is showing mainly snow but gfs is warmer aloft and more sleet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Pretty awesome write up from MPX The first wave will be primarily driven by lower level frontogenesis as the lingering frontal boundary from Monday`s clipper system tightens up and forms a band of snow on Tuesday. Currently, this is more favored across southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, generally along or north of I-90. This band will likely lead to several inches of snow. There will be a brief break Tuesday night into Wednesday, but then a second round of snow will develop as the main storm develops to the southeast, and tracks across the region late Wednesday through Thursday night. It is this second round of snow that would produce the more widespread, heavy snowfall amounts across the region, and when combined with the first band, ends up with incredible snowfall totals over multiple days. If you`re reading this discussion, then you are probably on the more weather-savvy side compared to most people. And if you`re weather- savvy, then you`re probably familiar with the ample weather sites that show model data such as storm total snowfall accumulation. For that reason, we figured it worth addressing the snow amount potential in this discussion so here it goes. From a probabilistic standpoint, some locations across the forecast area have a greater than 50 percent chance of seeing at least 18 inches of snow over a 72hr window from Tuesday morning through Thursday night. That`s incredible. The location will likely change, so it`s not that important. What is important is that those probabilities actually exist in the guidance, especially this far out into the forecast. This lends some insight into the realistic totals that we may see come Friday morning. Another noteworthy statistic is that the lowest 5 percent of forecast (think low-end) still has accumulating snow pretty much everywhere, and a heavier band of at least several inches across the region. On the flip side, we won`t dwell much on the 95 percent (think high-end), but it would indicate that there is potential for some locations to see over two feet of snow. Reality will likely fall somewhere in the middle, which is why we don`t produce snowfall totals beyond 3 days into the future. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see this trend more north than what models are showing. Snow cover should be disappearing across IL and WI as well throughout the upcoming few days which should help things warm up more than what models are forecasting IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Not much change in the icon. Crushes msp again although low eventually looks a bit farther south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 GFS is a bit stronger and south with the first wave. Drops 6-10 in minny and 3-5 across WI 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Tuesday wave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 GFS 0z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Icon at 120 has the low south of Chicago. GFS has it right over eastern WI 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Slight tick south, especially from the 06z run. Highest total for FSD over the past four runs. Starts pressing south into Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 too good to be true imo. coverage and amounts can only go down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 What I find interesting on the Canadian model, the low is over SE Colorado then moves to KC, but puts done nothing. Sweet path typically for us. ICON and to some extent the GFS want to put snow down around some of the area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Thanks for posting all these maps everyone. This has potential to be an amazing storm for me. I plan on going to Devil's Head Wednesday, spending the night because I'll probably be trapped there, then going to Cascade the next day. Really hope this works out, the snow this year has been terrible for almost the entire winter. Last storm here was mind blowingly amazing though, if it's even remotely close to that one I'm going to be really happy. Had the most fun with the last storm snowboarding than I've had in a long time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: What I find interesting on the Canadian model, the low is over SE Colorado then moves to KC, but puts done nothing. Sweet path typically for us. ICON and to some extent the GFS want to put snow down around some of the area. I thought you would be reeling this one in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 GFS ensembles look south of 6z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 12z GEFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 12z Ukie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 GFS, ICON, and UKIE have a line of snow down over me that may hopefully overproduce In coming runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/17/2023 at 11:22 AM, Icewoz said: Boring yet again for DTX 23 hours ago, uticasnow said: Another snozzer for Southeast Michigan Third year running of mostly standing on the sidelines watching the game. This looks like GHD-2 but displaced about 150 miles north. Doubtful south half of DTX gets into sig snow, but like Thur storm it could trend enough to escape a complete whiff. Long ways til all is said-n-done on this. Finally this pattern showing it's true potential, just half a state too far north. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Most likely will move south more....but we know how that goes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 The ice potential remains. Been quite a while since we have had an ice storm. Course it all may change! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Euro is pretty much identical to 0z except maybe a tad lighter on the QPF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 Euro 10:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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