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2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm


Tom

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16 hours ago, MKEstorm said:

Ha 🤣 8.5 inches of snow 🤔

So far in the three main 0z models, one is giving me a lot of snow, one is giving me a lot of sleet…and the other is giving me a lot of ice!

UKMET Model only does the 10:1 ratio, the ratios in Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and the Dakotas are much higher, UP Michigan with a 20:1 ratio.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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La Crosse AFD

in all, lots of lift and ample saturation for pcpn. What falls
where and how much are the bigger questions.

PCPN TYPE: looks to start out as snow with warmer air pushing in
from the south Wed night bringing a wintry mix into the equation
across the south. Should swing back to snow in the south Thu morning
with snow continuing elsewhere.

HOW MUCH? definitely too early to tell, but this storm will benefit
from time and residence, with a prolonged period of snow over nearly
the same west-east swath. Where this sets up isn`t clear with
differences in the models and their ensemble members - with a fair
amount of shifting over the past few days. That said, all have a
similar flavor, running the main snow band from southern/central MN
to across northern/central WI. Current probabilities in both the
GEFS and EPS suggest a 50-70% chance for 8+ inches over the 2 days
for a chunk of the forecast area (currently favored over the north),
but only uses a 10:1 ratio. Actual ratios will likely be higher.
Deterministic GFS/EC output over their past few runs tack on several
inches to that 8+ potential. ECMWF EFI pushes 0.8 for snow Thu while
north-south running x-sections hint at a little -EPV that could
result in some enhanced banding. All in all, it looks like a lot of
snow for a rather large chunk of the region.

As for ice, the GFS and EC latest runs suggest over 1/4" would be
possible in the south, focused on Wed night as the warmer air starts
to surge in. Obviously where this falls is highly dependent on the
storm track, but it is another potential hazard to this storm.

WIND: let`s not forget the wind. Adding insult to injury, the
pressure gradient starts to tighten up Wed, not relaxing until later
Thu night with the exit east of the storm. EC ensemble members push
gusts into at least the lower 30s mph over the period. The GFS is a
tad higher. Depending on the water content of the expected snow,
blowing and drifting could/will be an issue.

OVERALL: this is setting up to be a high impact storm with
potentially a lot of snow, strong winds to blow it around, and even
a threat for ice. Impacts will be widespread. Now, where those
impacts are highest remains uncertain with wavering in the models
and the fact the storm is still days and days away. A lot can
change.

 

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Im praying for that lull on Wednesday. I will be in Iowa Tuesday so I will miss the first round. But the big dog moves in late Wednesday. I wanna be up here for that so hoping I can race up 35 during the day and get here to the MN home before that moves in. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in my life.

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Good Luck to the those in my old stomping grounds (Twin Cities) !!!! Best chance in years to compete agst Halloween Storm of 1991. I was a senior in HS and drove my snowmobile with buddies down I-35 past the dome--- and around I-94 and back up around 694 to New Brighton--- it was nuts.   Here are Twin Cities  6 greatest snow events -- ( 1982 I was 9 and remember those back to back gems like it was yday-- jumped off the roof of a two story house with no issues -- snow depth was 37") Pretty cool I was there for the TOP 4.  

GOOD LUCK!!!  

   TOP SIX SNOWSTORMS       *                                      *
*    FOR THE TWIN CITIES      *                                      *
*    -------------------      *                                      *
*                     INCHES  *                                      *
*  1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4  *                                      *
*  2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1  *                                      *
*  3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0...NOTE CORRECTION NEEDED TO //NCDC-LCD//*
*  4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4  *                                      *
*  5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1  *                                      *
*  6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8  *                                      *
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Im praying for that lull on Wednesday. I will be in Iowa Tuesday so I will miss the first round. But the big dog moves in late Wednesday. I wanna be up here for that so hoping I can race up 35 during the day and get here to the MN home before that moves in. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in my life.

I'm rooting for all of you up there to reel in one of the biggest storms in recent history to cover such a dramatic portion of the upper MW/GL's region.  Holy friggin' smokes, this is really going to be one hellova fun time for you guys up there.

0z Euro...the consistency over the past few days in mind boggling...you don't see that quite often among all the global models...

 

image.png

 

 

0z CMCE...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

 

0z EPS...

1.gif

image.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Who wouldn't be given his location??  LOL, ya, I'd be trying my hardest to manifest this beast if I was that close to the epicenter.  Man, I really like your area and north into @Madtownplace.

Right below the 21 on the euro map lol. 30-40 mile shift south and would be right in the heart of it. 30 mile shift north and it’s likely a sleet mess

Never seen the models this consistent though 200+ hours out 

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