Doinko Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GEM is a bit further north. If this works out for you how close will FSD be to breaking seasonal snowfall records? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 16 hours ago, MKEstorm said: Ha 8.5 inches of snow So far in the three main 0z models, one is giving me a lot of snow, one is giving me a lot of sleet…and the other is giving me a lot of ice! UKMET Model only does the 10:1 ratio, the ratios in Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and the Dakotas are much higher, UP Michigan with a 20:1 ratio. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 La Crosse AFD in all, lots of lift and ample saturation for pcpn. What falls where and how much are the bigger questions. PCPN TYPE: looks to start out as snow with warmer air pushing in from the south Wed night bringing a wintry mix into the equation across the south. Should swing back to snow in the south Thu morning with snow continuing elsewhere. HOW MUCH? definitely too early to tell, but this storm will benefit from time and residence, with a prolonged period of snow over nearly the same west-east swath. Where this sets up isn`t clear with differences in the models and their ensemble members - with a fair amount of shifting over the past few days. That said, all have a similar flavor, running the main snow band from southern/central MN to across northern/central WI. Current probabilities in both the GEFS and EPS suggest a 50-70% chance for 8+ inches over the 2 days for a chunk of the forecast area (currently favored over the north), but only uses a 10:1 ratio. Actual ratios will likely be higher. Deterministic GFS/EC output over their past few runs tack on several inches to that 8+ potential. ECMWF EFI pushes 0.8 for snow Thu while north-south running x-sections hint at a little -EPV that could result in some enhanced banding. All in all, it looks like a lot of snow for a rather large chunk of the region. As for ice, the GFS and EC latest runs suggest over 1/4" would be possible in the south, focused on Wed night as the warmer air starts to surge in. Obviously where this falls is highly dependent on the storm track, but it is another potential hazard to this storm. WIND: let`s not forget the wind. Adding insult to injury, the pressure gradient starts to tighten up Wed, not relaxing until later Thu night with the exit east of the storm. EC ensemble members push gusts into at least the lower 30s mph over the period. The GFS is a tad higher. Depending on the water content of the expected snow, blowing and drifting could/will be an issue. OVERALL: this is setting up to be a high impact storm with potentially a lot of snow, strong winds to blow it around, and even a threat for ice. Impacts will be widespread. Now, where those impacts are highest remains uncertain with wavering in the models and the fact the storm is still days and days away. A lot can change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 A lot of AFD really ramping up the wording compared to the last day. Green Bay talking about a high event with wind a lot of snow etc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2023 Report Share Posted February 18, 2023 18z GEFS snowier and farther south compared to 12z. Lines up well with the 18z op gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaSnow Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 I'm excited for you all up north, more concerned down here. We get that kind of ice and 30mph winds I might be happy I have a fireplace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icewoz Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Can’t wait for the hype in Detroit … for nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 more than likely ice for north of Detoit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 0z icon came back SE from its previous runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 RGEM looks pretty far south with the first band through hr 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 GFS through hr 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 This has been very anti dramatic so far..models have been locked in for days now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 GEM with 2” QPF here which is mostly sleet.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Im praying for that lull on Wednesday. I will be in Iowa Tuesday so I will miss the first round. But the big dog moves in late Wednesday. I wanna be up here for that so hoping I can race up 35 during the day and get here to the MN home before that moves in. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in my life. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 @hawkstwelve is the Euro showing a lull for southern MN during the day Wednesday?? Thank you in advance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Good Luck to the those in my old stomping grounds (Twin Cities) !!!! Best chance in years to compete agst Halloween Storm of 1991. I was a senior in HS and drove my snowmobile with buddies down I-35 past the dome--- and around I-94 and back up around 694 to New Brighton--- it was nuts. Here are Twin Cities 6 greatest snow events -- ( 1982 I was 9 and remember those back to back gems like it was yday-- jumped off the roof of a two story house with no issues -- snow depth was 37") Pretty cool I was there for the TOP 4. GOOD LUCK!!! TOP SIX SNOWSTORMS * * * FOR THE TWIN CITIES * * * ------------------- * * * INCHES * * * 1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4 * * * 2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1 * * * 3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0...NOTE CORRECTION NEEDED TO //NCDC-LCD//* * 4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4 * * * 5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1 * * * 6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8 * * 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 hours ago, james1976 said: Im praying for that lull on Wednesday. I will be in Iowa Tuesday so I will miss the first round. But the big dog moves in late Wednesday. I wanna be up here for that so hoping I can race up 35 during the day and get here to the MN home before that moves in. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in my life. I'm rooting for all of you up there to reel in one of the biggest storms in recent history to cover such a dramatic portion of the upper MW/GL's region. Holy friggin' smokes, this is really going to be one hellova fun time for you guys up there. 0z Euro...the consistency over the past few days in mind boggling...you don't see that quite often among all the global models... 0z CMCE... 0z EPS... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 GEFS continues to sink south and increase totals in the main band (10:1 ratios) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Reel it harder Money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, gosaints said: Reel it harder Money. Gonna be tough with how consistent the models have been lol how you doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, gosaints said: Reel it harder Money. Who wouldn't be given his location?? LOL, ya, I'd be trying my hardest to manifest this beast if I was that close to the epicenter. Man, I really like your area and north into @Madtownplace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Tom said: Who wouldn't be given his location?? LOL, ya, I'd be trying my hardest to manifest this beast if I was that close to the epicenter. Man, I really like your area and north into @Madtownplace. Right below the 21 on the euro map lol. 30-40 mile shift south and would be right in the heart of it. 30 mile shift north and it’s likely a sleet mess Never seen the models this consistent though 200+ hours out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Oh I am being serious. I am to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 well here I am lookin at the modelsgive me a little wobble north as long as I'm invested now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Money said: Gonna be tough with how consistent the models have been lol how you doing? Doing solid. 2 part storm.... Part 1 maybe somewhat locked in. Part 2 plenty of time to reel... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 NAM first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 NAM for the second wave as the precip way east. Would be the worst case situation here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 I would recommend giving the NAM about 36 hours. Not in it's wheelhouse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 With that lead wave tomorrow still to come through the NAM and other meso's are gonna struggle. MSP right now looks solid to continue an impressive winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Still looks like between highway 3 and 30 for the best ice potential. Though I may get socked with sleet, which is bad enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Hmm, so GFS tick south and GDPS north a bit. I'll take south shifts but no Sir to any more north. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 This is slowly slipping away from me. But GFS was the only one that got totals right around here with the last system, but that was within 3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Ukie on the other hand.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 GFS ensembles are identical to 6z. Placement and snowfall almost identical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, Money said: Ukie on the other hand.. Can you post this with a more east view of the map please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, Money said: Thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Euro is a tad south with the first wave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Euro coming in colder as well with the second wave. Snow all the way down in Milwaukee..Michigan gets hit good this run maps will be up soon 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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