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2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm


Tom

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like Wednesday morning will be your best chance to shoot up there. The lowest 6-hr period that I could find ends at Noon on Wednesday, at least per the 00z Euro. Although from Noon-6PM it shows only an inch or so falling at MSP. Then it really starts cranking after 6PM. 06z GFS showed less of a lull in that afternoon slot and it's lowest 6-hr period was also the time slot ending at Noon.

So definitely seems like prior to Noon is your best bet on both models.

snku_006h-imp.us_nc.png

 

snku_006h-imp.us_nc (1).png

Thanks for the detailed reply! Appreciate it. My plans have actually changed and it looks like I won't be going to IA at all now so I'll be up here for the entire event.

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Looking like this should be a fun ride. Still plenty of time left, but pretty incredible model consistency. Just a few miles north of the outer loop of Minmeapolis here and looking good. Trends seem to be favoring just south of here for the maximums at this point, but man this looks like it will be a fun one. Curious to see what the watches say when they are released. Let it snow!

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Good thing most of the ride between my place and Cascade is via highway or else I don't think I'd be making it home Thursday night from Columbia county. If this really happens it's going to be one of the craziest snowboarding days I've ever had in Wisconsin. Euro has cascade more or less right on the 12in line right now. And it's not going to snow where I actually live which means the drive won't be bad. Hope it can be dry and nice snow.

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Just issued. Awesome!

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater
  than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and
  lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west
  central Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event.
  The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see
  totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before
  snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or
  more inches of snow could fall.
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Detroit area peeps, don’t get too excited about this storm…here it is…huge, informative right up by DTX only to be ended with this paragraph:

 blank.pngnwslogo.gifForecaster Reasoning

000
FXUS63 KDTX 192057
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
357 PM EST 

“A notable trend shows up in today`s data for the late week period. A
more aggressive dry slot over southern Lower MI could shorten the
event by Thursday morning along with a farther north surface low
position in Lower MI in the afternoon. This also keeps deformation
snow farther north in the Great Lakes”
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11 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS joined the euro/Ukie for second wave. Milwaukee area will like this. Maps in 5 mins or so 

Ya, it looks like I’ll be staying in the cold precip throughout this storm…some snow..then sleet! Looks the the freezing rain is trending south of MKE. That’s all I need is snow, then sleet on top of that. Not too fun too shovel 😕

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Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read!

MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the
previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring
heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the
region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the
wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in
model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is
a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling
event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+
percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of
snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered
our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call
this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper
limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right"
scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow.
In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high
floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still
an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit
the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t
come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology.

A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run
consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from
when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the
Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect
to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a
major winter storm with significant impacts.
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5 hours ago, james1976 said:

Just issued. Awesome!

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater
  than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and
  lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west
  central Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event.
  The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see
  totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before
  snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or
  more inches of snow could fall.

This could end up a top 10 snow storm for you. 

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28 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Turning into nothing for me.  Which is good don’t want ice.  Looks like some snow and sleet and a big dry slot.  

You wanna see "nothing", come over to Wayneland, lol. We'll show you NOTHING. It's so nothing you can totally miss it when it happens

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read!

MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the
previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring
heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the
region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the
wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in
model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is
a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling
event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+
percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of
snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered
our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call
this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper
limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right"
scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow.
In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high
floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still
an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit
the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t
come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology.

A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run
consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from
when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the
Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect
to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a
major winter storm with significant impacts.

Just awesome. I was about to post the same thing haha. 

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