gimmesnow Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Thanks Money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Euro 10:1 maps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Here was 0z.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 12z Euro brings snow farther south into Nebraska. This would be a nice refresher. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Pretty similar to Ukie for the most part although Ukie is farther south with the snow on the southern end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like Wednesday morning will be your best chance to shoot up there. The lowest 6-hr period that I could find ends at Noon on Wednesday, at least per the 00z Euro. Although from Noon-6PM it shows only an inch or so falling at MSP. Then it really starts cranking after 6PM. 06z GFS showed less of a lull in that afternoon slot and it's lowest 6-hr period was also the time slot ending at Noon. So definitely seems like prior to Noon is your best bet on both models. Thanks for the detailed reply! Appreciate it. My plans have actually changed and it looks like I won't be going to IA at all now so I'll be up here for the entire event. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 22 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z Euro brings snow farther south into Nebraska. This would be a nice refresher. Can you post Kutchera one for the Midwest? thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Money said: Can you post Kutchera one for the Midwest? thanks Here you go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 I'm in Brookings County South Dakota but my father's in Ozaukee County WI. He's been disappointed by the snow this season and wants a big one, so this one will definitely be interesting given how close the snow line it is to that location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 That 29.6 is very close to my location. Wow. The consistency is crazy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Looking like this should be a fun ride. Still plenty of time left, but pretty incredible model consistency. Just a few miles north of the outer loop of Minmeapolis here and looking good. Trends seem to be favoring just south of here for the maximums at this point, but man this looks like it will be a fun one. Curious to see what the watches say when they are released. Let it snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Good thing most of the ride between my place and Cascade is via highway or else I don't think I'd be making it home Thursday night from Columbia county. If this really happens it's going to be one of the craziest snowboarding days I've ever had in Wisconsin. Euro has cascade more or less right on the 12in line right now. And it's not going to snow where I actually live which means the drive won't be bad. Hope it can be dry and nice snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 EPS QPF 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 NAM is back south with the first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just issued. Awesome! WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event. The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or more inches of snow could fall. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icewoz Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Detroit area peeps, don’t get too excited about this storm…here it is…huge, informative right up by DTX only to be ended with this paragraph: Forecaster Reasoning 000 FXUS63 KDTX 192057 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 PM EST “A notable trend shows up in today`s data for the late week period. A more aggressive dry slot over southern Lower MI could shorten the event by Thursday morning along with a farther north surface low position in Lower MI in the afternoon. This also keeps deformation snow farther north in the Great Lakes” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Of course, we would not expect anything else.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 GFS nudged south again with first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 GFS joined the euro/Ukie for second wave. Milwaukee area will like this. Maps in 5 mins or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Ice 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, Money said: GFS joined the euro/Ukie for second wave. Milwaukee area will like this. Maps in 5 mins or so Ya, it looks like I’ll be staying in the cold precip throughout this storm…some snow..then sleet! Looks the the freezing rain is trending south of MKE. That’s all I need is snow, then sleet on top of that. Not too fun too shovel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Gfs would be nearly all sleet here. Yuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read! MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+ percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right" scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow. In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology. A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a major winter storm with significant impacts. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted February 19, 2023 Report Share Posted February 19, 2023 New Keloland projections. They tend to be pretty accurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Keep it coming 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 yuck that's no good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 0z NAM with a decent shift south with the first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 hours ago, james1976 said: Just issued. Awesome! WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event. The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or more inches of snow could fall. This could end up a top 10 snow storm for you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Turning into nothing for me. Which is good don’t want ice. Looks like some snow and sleet and a big dry slot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Major snowstorm for the MN home and potential ice storm for the IA home. Crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 28 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Turning into nothing for me. Which is good don’t want ice. Looks like some snow and sleet and a big dry slot. You wanna see "nothing", come over to Wayneland, lol. We'll show you NOTHING. It's so nothing you can totally miss it when it happens 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, james1976 said: Major snowstorm for the MN home and potential ice storm for the IA home. Crazy It's been a while since we have had an honest ice storm here. The 30mph winds would spell some trouble too! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 hours ago, gabel23 said: Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read! MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+ percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right" scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow. In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology. A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a major winter storm with significant impacts. Just awesome. I was about to post the same thing haha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Another consistent run with not much changes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Consistently 2 feet runs for MSP. Just crazy 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 This would be historic for sure! BRING IT ON!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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