2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[tStacsh]

Just now, Bellona said:

Gfs has ice further south than most. Sticks me in about 12 hours of nothing but sleet and a little snow on the end. 

I wouldn't buy in to any of these snow totals on the southern end. It's going to be a sleet storm for many.  

[Bellona]

Yikes! Someone in Iowa is gonna be in trouble. And a massive snowstorm for everyone north! Should be awesome to watch it all unfold.

[gimmesnow]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I wouldn't buy in to any of these snow totals on the southern end. It's going to be a sleet storm for many.  

Does that show up in Kuchera ratio maps?

[Bellona]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I wouldn't buy in to any of these snow totals on the southern end. It's going to be a sleet storm for many.  

1.5 for snow according to GFS here. I  am not too excited about a sleet storm, but if that's what I wind up with, those can be pretty cool too.

[tStacsh]

Just now, gimmesnow said:

Does that show up in Kuchera ratio maps?

I am unsure of that.  But the GFS snowfall map that "includes sleet" is extremely inaccurate for this storm.  

[Money]

CMC. Went from 4 0z to over 13 this run 

[Money]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I am unsure of that.  But the GFS snowfall map that "includes sleet" is extremely inaccurate for this storm.  

I’m pretty sure the Kuchera maps don’t include sleet 

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, Bellona said:

1.5 for snow according to GFS here. I  am not too excited about a sleet storm, but if that's what I wind up with, those can be pretty cool too.

I look to be about 30 miles south of any steadier actual snow.  But currently just north of any real freezing rain.  So by process of elimination I'm expecting about 2 inches of straight up sleet/ice pellets.  Since it's almost March, I'll just skip trying to shovel this concrete crap and let it melt in a few days...

[Tom]

27 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Wow.  If someone gets under.....

1. Fronto number 1

2.  Fronto number 2 

3.  The pivot 

4.  Could be very impressive for the Midwest.

I like your area!  Perfect storm track and pivot right where it reaches maximum intensity up near C IA and then skoots E into the GL's.  Bonafide Bliz?  Maybe.  It'll be close.

[Money]

GFS Ensembles locked and loaded and nudged up in totals and farther south by a little bit 

[gosaints]

Be interested to see if they go warning/warning, advisory and the warning, or just one long warning in some of these areas 

[Hawkeye]

The latest NAM/HRRR/RAP show all the first wave snow along and north of Minneapolis.  The globals all have the snow over southern Minnesota, where the NAM/HRRR/RAP show nothing.

[gosaints]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest NAM/HRRR/RAP show all the first wave snow along and north of Minneapolis.  The globals all have the snow over southern Minnesota, where the NAM/HRRR/RAP show nothing.

Because of this I think we see another model cycle before warnings/advisories go out for round 1

[gimmesnow]

22 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest NAM/HRRR/RAP show all the first wave snow along and north of Minneapolis.  The globals all have the snow over southern Minnesota, where the NAM/HRRR/RAP show nothing.

This happened before recently. I remember because i doubted the GFS and trusted the short range and I regretted it.

[Madtown]

Selfishly not liking the trends up this way, but hope we get dumped on

[East Dubzz]

What’s it looking like around Dubuque? I see there’s some good ice in the forecast - does that actually look to still be the case?

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some nice trends on the last couple runs of GEM.

If I was in Mount Pleasant, I would be stoked and also doubtful as my total went from 1.5 to 20.3 in just three model runs lol

[Money]

12z euro 

[Madtown]

John Dee's take

[Madtown]

Appetizer, but snow has begun upped to 4-6" by tomorrow morning

[jcwxguy]

1 hour ago, Money said:

12z euro 

Up to 4" on euro for me in Fremont. If I get everything else to shift just a little bit farther south, I'll be in a solid advisory type snow 

[bud2380]

Kuchera totals

 

[Money]

Winter weather advisory issued for first wave for 3-5 and winter storm watch for 10-14 for wed night-Thursday one county north 

 

WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. For the Winter Storm Watch,
  heavy snow possible. Additional snow accumulations between 10 and
  14 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, and
  produce widespread blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Marathon, Portage, Waushara, Wood, Calumet, Manitowoc,
  Winnebago, Brown, Kewaunee, Outagamie, Shawano, and Waupaca
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 PM Tuesday to 9 AM
  CST Wednesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Wednesday
  afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

[gimmesnow]

15 minutes ago, Money said:

Winter weather advisory issued for first wave for 3-5 and winter storm watch for 10-14 for wed night-Thursday one county north 

 

WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. For the Winter Storm Watch,
  heavy snow possible. Additional snow accumulations between 10 and
  14 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, and
  produce widespread blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Marathon, Portage, Waushara, Wood, Calumet, Manitowoc,
  Winnebago, Brown, Kewaunee, Outagamie, Shawano, and Waupaca
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 PM Tuesday to 9 AM
  CST Wednesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Wednesday
  afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

Dang same here, one county south of my ski hill.

[Bellona]

Ice potential remains for those further south not getting several feet of snow, lol. 

[james1976]

Inch and a half here this morning from the clipper. Wasn't expecting that.

Got the snowblower gased up and ready to go for the big dog.

[james1976]

I dont think I've ever been in a forecast like this. Biggest snowstorm in my lifetime if this verifies.

Description

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

[Bellona]

8 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I dont think I've ever been in a forecast like this. Biggest snowstorm in my lifetime if this verifies.

Description

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

And we expect pictures!!

[Bellona]

Dmx suggesting warning criteria could be met for fzr/sleet. Could have convective elements, etc. I'm trying to stifle my excitement. 

[Money]

GFS

[Money]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS shows even more snow with some energy on Friday. At that point we might be saying 'uncle' to Mother Nature.

Euro has a 970 L next week over the same areas with a huge rain storm 

[Grizzcoat]

Never seen this before in the Upper Midwest- (maybe, outside the lakes)

[East Dubzz]

1 hour ago, Bellona said:

Dmx suggesting warning criteria could be met for fzr/sleet. Could have convective elements, etc. I'm trying to stifle my excitement. 

Yikes!

[Icewoz]

1 minute ago, East Dubzz said:

Yikes!

My philosophy is cut these models down by 3/4. That’s usually realty. It always looks worse than it is 2 days out. 

[Andie]

81 for the high today. 85 tomorrow. 
We’ll see a 70% chance of rain Wednesday and a high of 79.  

We cool down to a high of 58 Friday before slowly climbing back up to 75 and 30% chance of rain Sunday.  Sounds like Spring.  

 

[gimmesnow]

Feel like we've seen these big ice totals in the past and they never verify.

[Icewoz]

DTX is the voice of reason. Just wish media outlets could understand and translate the information correctly. 
 

Today`s model cycle continues temporal consistency with the bulk
features of the southern Plains system as it migrates into the mid
MS valley during Wednesday. Opted to go ahead with a Winter Storm
Watch with this forecast issuance given the potential magnitude of
the icing event. The lead time is a bit longer than usual,
especially for a mixed precip event, and carries risk of substantial
forecast changes but is offset by the potential for a high end icing
event somewhere in southern Lower MI. The Watch starts a framework
within which we can then shuffle around precipitation type and
amounts in upcoming forecasts. Today`s forecast cycle still depicts
surface temperature trends toward the Ohio border counties as the
greatest source of uncertainty on the southward extent of freezing
rain potential. Lenawee and Monroe counties are not in the Watch but
are expected to be in a Winter Weather Advisory time window later
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Locations farther north, especially
toward the northern Detroit suburbs to I-69, have a chance to be
more firmly in subfreezing air overlapped by high precipitation
rate. The range of model soundings broadly suggest an all snow start
is possible in this area followed by a lengthy period of sleet
before changing to freezing rain. The key will be persistence of
precipitation coverage and intensity which tend to verify in a more
scattered pattern when a convective component develops. The Tri
Cities and northern Thumb then stand the best chance to hold all
snow but with intervals of sleet and freezing rain also possible.
Exceedance of warning criteria accumulation/icing is play for all
areas in the Watch but with substantial north to south adjustments
possible as assessments of the surface cold layer strength and
northward progress of the warm nose are refined in later updates.

The one trend showing up in today`s forecast cycle is a farther
north solution on the surface low during Thursday preceded by the
broad mid level dry slot. Guidance POPs appear too high for too long
Thursday as the dry slot surges in likely reducing precip to drizzle
or freezing drizzle before temperatures rise above freezing most
area in the afternoon. The continued northward trend on surface low
carries it into central Lower MI Thursday evening followed by strong
cold front Thursday night. Temperature guidance indicates single
digit low temperatures possible by Friday morning

[gimmesnow]

Where do you find those write ups about the warnings and stuff?

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Where do you find those write ups about the warnings and stuff?

NWS "forecast discussion"

can be found multiple places on NWS site, but here is one.

[Grizzcoat]

Insane-