2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[james1976]

10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Will be interesting not how the  snow amounts add up in the Twin Cities- but if there is a lull. Will Tuesday's snow amounts be counted in the storm(event)  total if it stops snowing for several hours (speaking officially for the record book)-

Pretty sure it never stopped snowing from 11:30AM on OCT 31th till sometime around noon on NOV 2nd- 1991 =72 hours.

WCCO meteorologist tonight going with 15-20 inches and said it will no way come close to Halloween 91. His mindset was "it will be a big snowstorm"

[Bellona]

2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

WCCO meteorologist tonight going with 15-20 inches and said it will no way come close to Halloween 91. His mindset was "it will be a big snowstorm"

Do you remember Ian Leonard at KWWL? They could have forecast 5 feet of snow and he would always say, 'flurries'. 

[Grizzcoat]

4 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Do you remember Ian Leonard at KWWL? They could have forecast 5 feet of snow and he would always say, 'flurries'. 

On the opposite side of that was Dave Dahl (retired) on Channel 5 (KSTP) in the Twin Cities. Others stations would be going with 3-5" or whatever-- Dave would go 5-8" -- he was ALWAYS higher and never remember anyone forecasting higher totals then him.  He loved snow events :O) He's likely going nuts over this one.

[james1976]

8 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Do you remember Ian Leonard at KWWL? They could have forecast 5 feet of snow and he would always say, 'flurries'. 

Yup he was wild haha 

[Madtown]

hmmmm....let the drying begin

[Money]

Euro much weaker as well 

[gosaints]

The Euro is the king for a reason.  Statistically a much more likely solution.  

[Grizzcoat]

Blizzard warnings issued ---

[Tom]

7 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

Congrats on the Blitz Warning!  Is this your first one your going to experienced?  This is going to be a classic Upper MW Blizzard for your area with arctic temps, blowing snow, low viz and pounding snow!  I see a signal for the possibility for thundersnow.  What an incredible storm for you to witness and enjoy.  This goes for all of you up north.  I'd be lying to you if I wasn't kinda jealous!  These are the storms you dream of as a kid, esp the duration of the storm.  It's rare to see a long duration event like this one along with the vast coverage of real estate.  Not to mention, the variety of weather this storm will produce.  

[Tom]

7 hours ago, james1976 said:

Bumped up to 18-25" now. Insane

Description

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by an additional 14 to 19 inches Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. For the entire storm, total accumulations will range from 18 to 25 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph by Wednesday. WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

Reminds me of experiencing GHD-1 back in Feb '11...enjoy the show from Mother Nature!

[Tom]

0z Euro...1-2 Feet a winning situation for ya'll up there...

[Tom]

0z GEFS...it'll be fun watching the trends and radar as this storm evolves tonight into tomorrow and where the meso scale bands set up...

0z GEFS...

[Money]

12z HRRR shifted way south compared to 6z 

[gosaints]

Gonna rest up today.  See where the good meso sets up tonight and possibly chase it on the river road if needed.

[gimmesnow]

I think I've seen the most vague winter storm watch of my life. No totals, no specific ptype, just this. Going to have to watch this one real close before I decide what to do about snowboarding tomorrow. Accuweather says ice and 3-6 and Wunderground thinks it's all snow, 10+ inches.

Quote

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Winds could gust as high
as 40 MPH.

GFS is really scaring me with the *includes sleet*, they're the only ones that have totals that high that far south and the only one including sleet AFAIK.

[tStacsh]

7 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I think I've seen the most vague winter storm watch of my life. No totals, no specific ptype, just this. Going to have to watch this one real close before I decide what to do about snowboarding tomorrow. Accuweather says ice and 3-6 and Wunderground thinks it's all snow, 10+ inches.

GFS is really scaring me with the *includes sleet*, they're the only ones that have totals that high that far south and the only one including sleet AFAIK.

I think you can eliminate any real snow accumulations  from this line south.  Pretty much sleet and frz rain.  Too bad too because that's a lot of moisture.

 

 

 

 

[gosaints]

The GFS got put on timeout

[james1976]

8° and sunny. Calm before the storm! Everything is still on track for 18-24" up this way.

[Bellona]

4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

8° and sunny. Calm before the storm! Everything is still on track for 18-24" up this way.

I'm still thinking a good ice event at your place down here. Around a quarter inch or so. With the winds that might cause some problems.

[Money]

GFS 

[Money]

One thing I’ve noticed last few runs on GFS is secondary low on Thursday trending farther and farther south which makes sense IMO. How many times do models over estimate how far north the warm front and stuff would get by LM? 

[tStacsh]

The slightest of ticks south on the GFS for the snow/sleet/freezing rain line.  What a difference this will make for us on the southern slop end of this system wherever it ends up.  

[Bellona]

I've noticed several models never have central Iowa getting above freezing tomorrow. I've gone from 37, 36, 34, to 33 for a high according to click. 

[Bellona]

4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The slightest of ticks south on the GFS for the snow/sleet/freezing rain line.  What a difference this will make for us on the southern slop end of this system wherever it ends up.  

I'm stuck in 12 hours of sleet on GFS. Had a sleet storm early 2000s here and it was awful. 

[gimmesnow]

40 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I think you can eliminate any real snow accumulations  from this line south.  Pretty much sleet and frz rain.  Too bad too because that's a lot of moisture.

Looks like my snowboard trip is right on the edge. What maps do I look at to guess if it's going to be dry and fluffy or wet and heavy? I'm assuming it's going to be wet and heavy since it's so close to the sleet line. Is it the 850 temp anomaly?

 

Just now, Money said:

One thing I’ve noticed last few runs on GFS is secondary low on Thursday trending farther and farther south which makes sense IMO. How many times do models over estimate how far north the warm front and stuff would get by LM? 

Happened a week or so ago. I was going to head up to Portage to board and I bailed at the last second because models were aiming too far north. Ended up missing out on an awesome day because of it. I think this ice will not materialize like models say, just a hunch. Already looks like it's starting where it slides just a touch south. Time to buy some food and supplies for my trip, it seems. Hope this doesn't disappoint, what a great graduation present from mother nature for finally finishing up my volunteer ski patrol training after nearly an entire year. Just gotta watch the places they were calling for sleet/fzr and see if it falls as snow or not.

[bud2380]

Temperatures on the GFS vs. the Euro are significantly different, especially for those on the rain/ice/sleet/snow lines.  

Euro has 850s above zero north of Hwy 20 in Iowa.  

Contrast that to the GFS below and the 850 0 degree line is along/south of Hwy 30.  About 2 full counties further south.  This will have huge implications on the forecast of course.  Thus far the NWS seems to be siding with the Euro or at least guidance that are similar to the Euro. 

 

[tStacsh]

10 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Looks like my snowboard trip is right on the edge. What maps do I look at to guess if it's going to be dry and fluffy or wet and heavy? I'm assuming it's going to be wet and heavy since it's so close to the sleet line. Is it the 850 temp anomaly?

 

Happened a week or so ago. I was going to head up to Portage to board and I bailed at the last second because models were aiming too far north. Ended up missing out on an awesome day because of it. I think this ice will not materialize like models say, just a hunch. Already looks like it's starting where it slides just a touch south. Time to buy some food and supplies for my trip, it seems. Hope this doesn't disappoint, what a great graduation present from mother nature for finally finishing up my volunteer ski patrol training after nearly an entire year. Just gotta watch the places they were calling for sleet/fzr and see if it falls as snow or not.

Not sure, P-type is tricky with this.  Depends on the layers upon layers of profiles.  Growth zone etc.   I leave that up to the experts who are better at soundings.    I do expect a mix of snow/sleet here and less freezing rain.    Heavy wet flakes and ice pellets with some freezing drizzle/rain when the dry slot moves through.    Seems like we are on the same general line.  

[james1976]

Looking like far southern MN could be jackzone.

[gimmesnow]

15 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Not sure, P-type is tricky with this.  Depends on the layers upon layers of profiles.  Growth zone etc.   I leave that up to the experts who are better at soundings.    I do expect a mix of snow/sleet here and less freezing rain.    Heavy wet flakes and ice pellets with some freezing drizzle/rain when the dry slot moves through.    Seems like we are on the same general line.  

We are pretty close. Portage is about 30-40 miles north of Grand Rapids. Yeah it is tricky, WSW is just saying snow/sleet/fzr, accuweather says 3-6 snow with up to .5 ice, wunderground says 10+ inches of snow. Probably not going to know if it's worth the trip until tomorrow morning when it's time to go.

[JeepinWX]

Mean while, here in Des Moines, Mr. Scott reports that snow deflector power is at maximum...  Congrats to the peeps up north for reeling in a big one.

 

[Money]

Ukie 

[Tony]

10 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie 

Way too far south with the snow/sleet especially Illinois. 

[jcwxguy]

34 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie 

Hopefully this is right for down here 

[bud2380]

Euro looks pretty paltry at 27 hours, but then it starts to ramp up.  The GFS doesn't have the precip waning quite this much.  

 

[bud2380]

From midnight to midnight, total qpf is much lower on the Euro vs. the GFS

 

 

[gosaints]

EURO lame.  Hoping it is struggling with the energy off of the southwest coast.

[bud2380]

I'm not buying this ice forecast at all.  Especially on the southern edge.  Showing 0.62" for Cedar Rapids, but 850s well above freezing and surface temps 32-33, that doesn't spell major ice accumulation to me.  

And if this hits southern MI like it's showing.  Good god.  

[Bellona]

Ice potential. Euro also never has Waterloo above freezing. Kinda wavers on precipitation there for a bit then ramps it up later on.

[Bellona]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

I'm not buying this ice forecast at all.  Especially on the southern edge.  Showing 0.62" for Cedar Rapids, but 850s well above freezing and surface temps 32-33, that doesn't spell major ice accumulation to me.  

And if this hits southern MI like it's showing.  Good god.  

Seems to me locals and at least DVN NWS feel highway 20 will be the best icing opportunity.  Ice is horrible to forecast though so honestly, it's a crap shoot. 

[gimmesnow]

You can chill out about the ice storm, they are extremely difficult to forecast and the transition line between snow and rain is so muddled with models no one really knows what's going to happen. Not even accuweather and wunderground are in agreement in the location I'm watching. None of the models have been doing really well lately so be prepared for the nowcast.