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2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm


Tom

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We've seen a few monster storms in the past, but this one is right up there with the amount of real estate coverage:

605109890_23-02-2118zNAM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ush30.thumb.png.06b55e124fac72fe1f74c5df980b1a24.png

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Money said:

NAM last minute shift south 

7B688AEC-E4FD-43A6-8A21-C41796EF98CA.png

I thought it was already S on a couple prior runs. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I am not at home, but last-minute trends are not my friend. Ice storm level event looking more and more likely per latest model trends. DTX has my little corner of Wayne Cnty in the .25 to .50 ice (the same as Ann Arbor to my SW where an ISW is in effect). This afternoon's afd was good, and I expect the overnight shift may have some tweaking to do. Yesterday, I "LOL'd" that office for putting me in a Watch. The last laugh may be theirs sadly.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

DISCUSSION...

An epic battle of air masses will occur over Lower Michigan over the
next 48-60 hours. The southern wave/subtropical moisture currently
over Baja California will be the dominate player, as it is booted
off the to the northeast by the aggressive height falls/upper level
wave/jet dropping south from the Pacific Northwest. Record breaking
or near record moisture content from a climo perspective looks to be
overspreading into southeast Michigan on Wednesday, as 850 MB dew
pts of 10 C reach the southern Michigan border toward evening, with
700 MB dew pts of 0 to 2 C overspreading southeast Michigan,
advected by 70 knot jet. With 850 MB Li`s going negative and mid
level lapse rates steeping up (~6.5 C/KM), a few embedded
thunderstorms seem plausible during the evening.

Meanwhile, a glancing blow of arctic air is tracking through Lower
Michigan behind this mornings cold front passage, allowing surface
dew pts to settle into the teens.

For impactful ice storms, surface temperatures of 31-32 degrees vs
30 degrees or colder makes all the difference.

With lack of snow cover over land, there is some concern skin temps
advertised by the models are too cold. Now, there does look to be
some light snow across the north half of the CWA tonight into
tomorrow morning with narrow mid level/700 MB fgen/isentropic ascent
arm, but would expect accumulations to remain under 2 inches.

A bigger concern is the lack of ice cover over Lake Huron and minor
heat flux from the water temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as
easterly flow is locked in tomorrow. Sub 1000 MB surface low will be
tracking into the western Ohio Valley late in the day, and the well
defined warm front will remain south of the Michigan border through
00z. With strong surface high (1035+ MB) building over/near James
Bay through the day, banking on surface winds to actually become
northeast in the afternoon, which should allow for shallow cold
advection as colder air from southern Ontario bleeds in which will
attempt to offset the latent heat release of the freezing rain and
warming 850 MB temps rising into the mid to upper single numbers
Wednesday evening south M-59. Very tight north-south baroclinic zone
over the Central Great Lakes makes for difficult forecast
determining advisory/warning for the various tiers of counties. With
mid level dry slot overtaking all of southeast Michigan after
midnight, banking on a significant break in precipitation to end
this first phase/event before the second low arrives during the day
on Thursday. That low looks to be tracking significantly farther
north, thus any possible winter weather advisory decision should be
confined to the northern part of the CWA. However, the rise/fall
pressure couplet late in the day with the cold advection will have
to be considered for a wind advisory for much of southeast Michigan
with 40+ knots of flow at 925 MB and 50 knots at the 850 MB level.

As far as the decision points for tomorrow afternoon/evening, bulk
of the 12z hires solutions ARW/regional GEM/Euro are adamant in the
surface cold air holding, and locations along/M-46 should be deep
enough in the cold air to maintain snow with some sleet mixing in at
times with warm layer in and just below 10 kft coming advancing in.
Will go with winter storm warning for 4-8 inches of snow/sleet
(lower end if more sleet mixes in). The I-69 corridor looks to be in
for a wintry mix bag of precip. Although we may come up short with
the individual elements snow/sleet, enough of concern/expectation
for freezing rain/ice accumulations to near quarter of an inch and
will go with a winter storm warning. More solid ice storm warning
conditions anticipated along the M-59 corridor extending into
Washtenaw county. Based off the ice accumulation calculator and
using a temp of 30 degrees, qpf of 1 inch, and expected winds around
15 knots...ice accumulation of quarter of an inch to half an inch
(radial) looks reasonable. That amount of ice will be capable of
taking down tree branches and lead to possible scattered power
outages.

With marginal freezing surface temps over Wayne and Lenawee/Monroe,
as well as the warmer rain drops with the deeper warm layer, will
just be carrying an winter weather advisory for ice accumulations
around tenth, with northern Wayne around two tenths before complete
changeover to rain occurs early Wednesday evening.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Its going to be a nightmare in Macomb County and of course plenty of other places as well.. They are calling for several inches of snow here in mby and ice accumulations on top of that. Tough forecast for sure, when it comes to ice. Temps tomorrow stay below freezing. Gotta keep an eye and see how far that WF makes it north.

Btw: Snowfall running way BN here in the DTW metro airport. Not seeing this number going too far. Currently, I think we are at 17 or 18" for the season.

 

I also live in Macomb and there is no forecast for accumulating snow here other than maybe an inch in the morning.

Shows mainly sleet, freezing rain, rain on my NWS forecast.

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6 hours ago, westMJim said:

In looking at the write up I get the feeling that for some reason the NWS Grand Rapids is kind of downplaying this event. Anyway here is some information on some past ice events in southern Lower Michigan. From channel 4's Paul Gross, Meteorologist out of Detroit.

New Year’s Eve / Day 1984-85:
Of all times to get an ice storm, New Year’s Eve has to be one of the worst. Freezing rain, light at first, moved into the area New Year’s Eve afternoon, and then became heavy overnight. I was in Lansing for that one, which was hit very hard. In fact, I vividly remember looking out my hotel room window and seeing the rain coming down as heavy as if it was a summertime thunderstorm. I then turned on The Weather Channel, and the current temperature was 28 degrees. The next morning, it took me thirty minutes to get enough ice chipped off my car just to get a door opened so I could start it and get the defrosters on. I also remember that the rain / ice line barely moved during the duration of this storm. In fact, that line hovered around 14 Mile Road, and I remember somebody telling me that the north end of the Oakland Mall parking lot was icy, while the south end of the lot was just wet!
March 13-14, 1997:
This ice storm hit the central part of our area with a lot of ice. I cannot get out of my mind how many limbs came down in my backyard as a result. It truly looked as if a bomb hit the backyard…there was that much lumber strewn across the yard, including one big limb that came down so hard that it impaled itself in the ground.

It took me about six hours to get all of those limbs cut up and dragged down to the street – my city (Farmington Hills) scheduled emergency yard waste pickup to help us all out. Otherwise, all of that would have sat there for another month. An estimated 425,000 home and businesses lost power, some for nearly a week. I was one of those, and spent that week at my mother-in-law’s condo…she had power.
April 4, 2003:
This was similar in nature to the March 1997 ice storm. A total of 500,000 homes and businesses lost power as a result of up to an inch of ice accumulation. My memory of this ice storm involves neighbors helping neighbors. A limb came down on my side of my street and took out a power line, so those of us on that side lost power. However, everybody across the street still had theirs. So we all ran extension cords across the street to our neighbors’ houses! I was without power for five days, and some in the northern half of Oakland County, which was hit the hardest, were without power for a week. Yes, by the way, it was another week at my mother-in-law’s.

Computer models have been consistent in projecting a half-inch or more of ice across especially the northern and western parts of our area. But something else to consider is the wind, which could gust near or over 40 mph overnight Saturday night / early Sunday morning. This wind adds a considerable load onto ice-laden trees and power lines, which will only bring down more limbs and lines.

And here is the bench mark ice storm in my life time.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2016/03/great_ice_storm_of_1976.html
As I stated at this time it seems to me that the NWS is downplaying this event so maybe we will luck out.

Glad to see you mention '76. I was able to skate down the street like it was a rink. There was a very smooth 3/4 inch of solid ice in Genesee Cnty where I was a youth with hockey skates. The NYE storm in '85 was another one that was very bad. Was walking to the back door when a fairly large limb cracked off the neighbor's tree and sounded like an explosion. Saw a blue arc flash too (I think it took out a power line to their house). I was only about 50 feet away - too close for comfort. I never knew you were in the Detroit metro area since you mentioned being from Bay City mostly. Thankfully I missed those other storms but nearly totaled my car driving through a downed tree in the Dec '06 ice storm down in Calhoun cnty. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not a bad update tonight. Always nice to have good surprises at the beginning of the event.

A couple of changes to the forecast and headlines this evening.
First, light snow has been continuing along and near I-90 this
evening, likely focused along the axis of 850mb frontogenesis.
Through 22.02z (8PM), our office has received around 2 inches of
snow, with approximately half an inch falling between 01z/7PM and
02z/8PM. Hi-res and other guidance continues to indicate that
banding may periodically enhance during the overnight hours as
additional vorticity lobes and subtle waves swing through. Have
increased snow amounts and QPF through 12z/6AM Wednesday to
reflect this.

Given the increased snow amounts this evening/tonight and the
expectation of strengthening winds, have pulled the start time of
the Blizzard Warning for the I-90 counties to 12z/6AM Wednesday,
as blizzard conditions are now more likely.

I've seen various types of blizzards/bliz warnings over the years. Had one when I lived in NMI in the 90's that was all about wind - zero snow which is really hard to do in a state with so many trees like Michigan. My favorite type is when the winds combine with the falling snow. Especially with good sized flakes not the pixie dust of the last official large blizzard (GHD-1). Have to go all the way back to Dec '00 and Jan '99 for the +SN/wind combo around SMI. Jan '05 was a "near miss" with conditions in that regard. We've had a couple Big Dogs come through here since, but they lacked the winds to get the headline. Enjoy your blizzard, it's the only blizzard you've got! Hahaha

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Not liking the trends for our backyards friend. Just like last week's event, the last minute south move on all the models/maps have me concerned for Canton despite the current WWA forecast from DTX. We got a good glazing last week and this looks to be worse with an ISW just to our west. Another issue for me is that I'm up north and have to travel home in all this tomorrow. 

I know amigo...I just came back from Greece yesterday..and man, what a change of climate I came to. Dealing w/ this now is not welcoming from me. I hope after this icestorm, we go straight to Met spring.

Safe travels bud!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This leading wave of Fgen seems a bit south of where it was expected.

1243651005_23-02-2110pmCurrentSurfMap.jpg.fb0d3686207a746e9e59c3b6f66e5711.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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40 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

I also live in Macomb and there is no forecast for accumulating snow here other than maybe an inch in the morning.

Shows mainly sleet, freezing rain, rain on my NWS forecast.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/mi/macomb

I hope ur right!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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24 minutes ago, Niko said:

Wow, yeah. Barely pop up to freezing per that graphic. But, I've heard others posting that WxUnderground is the only source going that cold/snowy at any given location. Just have to wait and see I guess. You'll be fine if you could get that much to fall as sleet/snow before any icing.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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29 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS

A0CE71E6-DAC7-430C-B9ED-8B22335C38E1.png

I take it you're so far north in Wisco, you need the more northerly solutions to verify for a nice storm?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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APX earlier today mentioned that blizzard conditions may be within reach. Really wish I could stay for that.

If we do manage to get the stronger gusts as guidance suggests...in
combination with the potential for intense snowfall Wednesday
night...not out of the question visibilities could drop to 1/4 mi or
less...which would put us pretty close to blizzard conditions at
times overnight. Additional concern with the winds is that if we are
able to get into the ice at all...suspect winds will be efficient at
helping ice accumulate on surfaces.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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22/0z RGEM for Wed evening. So colorful..so potentially destructive

image.png.668eba59bf84103fe9d38532c6d22044.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Every SR model I look at gets worse. ARW2 has Wayne under ice production for 12 hrs straight. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, Money said:

GFS

A0CE71E6-DAC7-430C-B9ED-8B22335C38E1.png

Your reeling in a Big one and so are my family and friends up near Castle Rock Lake area...good stuff!  Good luck up there..

0z Euro/GFS remain all snow from about the I90/94 split...right about near Cascade Mtn on north...

image.png

 

@gosaints, you must have put your snow magnet out...models are trending in your favor...or flavor!

 

 

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Waves of snow in the street and 12 inch drifts already. On average we have between 2-5 inches on the ground depending on where you measure. Very difficult with the wind. 

Kicking things off right!

20230221_230654.jpg

20230221_230507.jpg

That looks beautiful with all the snow banks and fresh new snow drifts that have the "wavy" character to them.  Can't wait to see the daytime pics and vids!

 

Meantime, the word out in the high country of Arizona is that Blizzard conditions are widespread and they have shut down the highways bc travel is impossible.  Winds are gusting near 70mph and are only increasing.  They haven't seen a storm like this in decades.  Just incredible.

Legit Blizzard in Flagstaff!

Screen Shot 2023-02-22 at 6.24.04 AM.png

 

Check out some tweets from the Flagstaff NWS Twitter page...

 

Screen Shot 2023-02-22 at 6.28.27 AM

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DTX not changing any headlines at this point but wrote some interesting thoughts in their AFD. Basically the SR trends look worse, but they won't know if they will verify until it's already happening. 😆 

Hoping for the best back home.

With the current outgoing forecast out of the way will offer to
insight in a potential deviation point as this gets into the latest
model trends and ramifications we`re watching. Hi-res runs this past
evening and tonight from the HRRR/RAP to NAM Nest (and to a lesser
magnitude the NAM12) are having a harder time lifting the frontal
slope into the area resulting into a shallower elevated warm nose
over the I-69/M-59 corridors, increasing sleet probabilities. If
this scenario pans outs, there would be a southward shift in primary
freezing rain axis towards the I-96/94 corridors... which as a
sidenote would be more in line with what the GFS and Canadian-NH
have been advertising. In addition, this would limit the chances to
switch to all rain over the far southern CWA instead remaining
wintry mix/freezing rain and increasing icing... which could warrant
a need for an upgrade of some or all of the advisory counties to an
ice storm warning. Areas of additional concern/uncertainties are the
effect of the still open waters of Lake Huron sitting firmly in the
mid to upper 30s, degree of latent heat release from higher rainfall
rates (or conversely any wet bulb cooling given dewpoints in the
20s), and the effect on ice accretion efficiency given the moderate
precip rates. Unfortunately these three points remain fairly
nebulous and really won`t be known until the event actually begins.
  • lol 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Watching city plow guy milk the 2" that fell overnight as he leisurely clears the upper level of a parking garage that only sees use in peak summer tourist season. My dream part time job during retirement 🤣

IMG_20230222_082943782.thumb.jpg.b8a9e1637bdcc9ab626ffa28c8b5632b.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTX not changing any headlines at this point but wrote some interesting thoughts in their AFD. Basically the SR trends look worse, but they won't know if they will verify until it's already happening. 😆 

Hoping for the best back home.

With the current outgoing forecast out of the way will offer to
insight in a potential deviation point as this gets into the latest
model trends and ramifications we`re watching. Hi-res runs this past
evening and tonight from the HRRR/RAP to NAM Nest (and to a lesser
magnitude the NAM12) are having a harder time lifting the frontal
slope into the area resulting into a shallower elevated warm nose
over the I-69/M-59 corridors, increasing sleet probabilities. If
this scenario pans outs, there would be a southward shift in primary
freezing rain axis towards the I-96/94 corridors... which as a
sidenote would be more in line with what the GFS and Canadian-NH
have been advertising. In addition, this would limit the chances to
switch to all rain over the far southern CWA instead remaining
wintry mix/freezing rain and increasing icing... which could warrant
a need for an upgrade of some or all of the advisory counties to an
ice storm warning. Areas of additional concern/uncertainties are the
effect of the still open waters of Lake Huron sitting firmly in the
mid to upper 30s, degree of latent heat release from higher rainfall
rates (or conversely any wet bulb cooling given dewpoints in the
20s), and the effect on ice accretion efficiency given the moderate
precip rates. Unfortunately these three points remain fairly
nebulous and really won`t be known until the event actually begins.

Just covering all their bases. They can be like "See we told you were going to be wrong"

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26 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

image.thumb.png.ed94f37bc7df609df1112f9adaf8f01f.png

It's not dry powder but it sure does look like good stuff up in Devil's Head. Beautiful little band heading over both my ski resorts. Thank you mother nature.

image.png

Yup, you’re gonna be good up there.  I reached out to my cousin to prepare for 12”+ up by Castle Rock Lake.  Biggest snow in over 5 years?

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currently snow and just a little bit of sleet.  Always good to have some snow and sleet down before any freezing rain materializes.  Looking and the recent short range models, the freezing rain doesn't really make it up this far north.  Tough forecast.  

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3 to 6+ with round one across NMI. Heaviest from M-72 and north. Beautiful snowy morning. No winds yet.

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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26 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

currently snow and just a little bit of sleet.  Always good to have some snow and sleet down before any freezing rain materializes.  Looking and the recent short range models, the freezing rain doesn't really make it up this far north.  Tough forecast.  

I think freezing rain will have a tough time making it this far north, then again, who knows. Radar showing some snow knocking at my doorstep. Temps holding steady in the low 30s.

  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, Niko said:

I think freezing rain will have a tough time making it this far north, then again, who knows. Radar showing some snow knocking at my doorstep. Temps holding steady in the low 30s.

newest run from GFS.  I'm literally at the cutoff line that shows 0.  but 2 miles south shows .89.  Cut these totals by 2/3 and it's still an awful ice storm.  

 

zr_acc-imp.us_mw.thumb.png.fd3c156ff63bc992311b9c4916d386a4.png

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GEM and GFS are almost identical for FSD over the next 24 hours. They show about 4-5 inches by 6PM, 6-7 by 12AM, and both end up around 10 inches by tomorrow morning.

On another note, looks like the FSD radar is back up thankfully. With the strong winds it's hard to tell what is falling snow and what is blowing snow but radar obviously helps nail things down a bit better.

I'm in Brookings for work this week.  Seems like they definitely backed off totals here, but going to be hard to measure anything. They started dropping roads gates I see.  I live about an hour east of MSP, so far totals are holding a little better there for now.  

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