2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GEM is a bit further north.

If this works out for you how close will FSD be to breaking seasonal snowfall records?

[hawkstwelve]

Some Euro trends of past three runs. Looks a tick north vs previous runs.

Totals continue to go down for FSD and MSP but still more than respectable at around a foot for the former and almost two feet for the latter. 

[hawkstwelve]

20 minutes ago, Doinko said:

If this works out for you how close will FSD be to breaking seasonal snowfall records?

We are currently sitting at spot #43 with 43.8 on the season which is 1.5 inches away from our seasonal average (45.3 inches Oct-May). If we can get a foot it will catapult us into the top 20. A foot and a half would get us within one spot of the top 10. 

[Iceresistance]

16 hours ago, MKEstorm said:

Ha 8.5 inches of snow

So far in the three main 0z models, one is giving me a lot of snow, one is giving me a lot of sleet…and the other is giving me a lot of ice!

UKMET Model only does the 10:1 ratio, the ratios in Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and the Dakotas are much higher, UP Michigan with a 20:1 ratio.

[Money]

La Crosse AFD

in all, lots of lift and ample saturation for pcpn. What falls
where and how much are the bigger questions.

PCPN TYPE: looks to start out as snow with warmer air pushing in
from the south Wed night bringing a wintry mix into the equation
across the south. Should swing back to snow in the south Thu morning
with snow continuing elsewhere.

HOW MUCH? definitely too early to tell, but this storm will benefit
from time and residence, with a prolonged period of snow over nearly
the same west-east swath. Where this sets up isn`t clear with
differences in the models and their ensemble members - with a fair
amount of shifting over the past few days. That said, all have a
similar flavor, running the main snow band from southern/central MN
to across northern/central WI. Current probabilities in both the
GEFS and EPS suggest a 50-70% chance for 8+ inches over the 2 days
for a chunk of the forecast area (currently favored over the north),
but only uses a 10:1 ratio. Actual ratios will likely be higher.
Deterministic GFS/EC output over their past few runs tack on several
inches to that 8+ potential. ECMWF EFI pushes 0.8 for snow Thu while
north-south running x-sections hint at a little -EPV that could
result in some enhanced banding. All in all, it looks like a lot of
snow for a rather large chunk of the region.

As for ice, the GFS and EC latest runs suggest over 1/4" would be
possible in the south, focused on Wed night as the warmer air starts
to surge in. Obviously where this falls is highly dependent on the
storm track, but it is another potential hazard to this storm.

WIND: let`s not forget the wind. Adding insult to injury, the
pressure gradient starts to tighten up Wed, not relaxing until later
Thu night with the exit east of the storm. EC ensemble members push
gusts into at least the lower 30s mph over the period. The GFS is a
tad higher. Depending on the water content of the expected snow,
blowing and drifting could/will be an issue.

OVERALL: this is setting up to be a high impact storm with
potentially a lot of snow, strong winds to blow it around, and even
a threat for ice. Impacts will be widespread. Now, where those
impacts are highest remains uncertain with wavering in the models
and the fact the storm is still days and days away. A lot can
change.

 

[Money]

A lot of AFD really ramping up the wording compared to the last day. Green Bay talking about a high event with wind a lot of snow etc 

[hawkstwelve]

While FSD AFD was mostly a copy/paste from this morning, it was another great write-up by MPX. Here's a snippet of the ending...

I`ll take a step back to think about the potential setup with this
system and I cannot recall the last time I`ve seen this type of
consistency in guidance this far out. The 12z GEFS/EPS have the
floor (low end) around 0.60 to 0.75" QPF by 12z Friday. The high end
(ceiling) amounts are closer to 1.50 to 1.75" QPF. If we end up with
the low end, we`ll still see significant impacts from this week`s
system. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast information
and expect our messaging to ramp up as our confidence increases.

[Money]

18z GEFS snowier and farther south compared to 12z. Lines up well with the 18z op gfs 

[hawkstwelve]

18z ICON. Slight nudge north vs 12z.

[hawkstwelve]

The initial wave on Tuesday has trended a fair amount north on the Euro.

Definitely seeming like MSP will be ground zero. Heaviest axis seems to be settling around a Brookings to MSP to N WI line. Obviously still early though.

[MinnesotaSnow]

[Bellona]

I'm excited for you all up north, more concerned down here. We get that kind of ice and 30mph winds I might be happy I have a fireplace. 

[Icewoz]

Can’t wait for the hype in Detroit … for nothing. 

[uticasnow]

more than likely ice for north of Detoit

[Money]

0z icon came back SE from its previous runs 

[Money]

RGEM looks pretty far south with the first band through hr 84

[Money]

GFS through hr 84

[Money]

This has been very anti dramatic so far..models have been locked in for days now 

[Money]

GEM with 2” QPF here which is mostly sleet..

[hawkstwelve]

Not the best trends for FSD with both the initial wave and the following ones. Obviously still looking at large amounts here but MSP seems to be in the best spot for the extreme side, at least as of now. 

Any FGEN banding is going to be hard to model and will lead to those localized higher amounts. It'll be interesting to see any differences that the hi-res models bring as they start to come into view.

[hawkstwelve]

Northward trend on the Euro. Bleh.

 

[james1976]

Im praying for that lull on Wednesday. I will be in Iowa Tuesday so I will miss the first round. But the big dog moves in late Wednesday. I wanna be up here for that so hoping I can race up 35 during the day and get here to the MN home before that moves in. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in my life.

[hawkstwelve]

00z Euro actually ends up expanding into Central NE a little better than previous runs.

[james1976]

@hawkstwelve is the Euro showing a lull for southern MN during the day Wednesday?? Thank you in advance!

[Grizzcoat]

Good Luck to the those in my old stomping grounds (Twin Cities) !!!! Best chance in years to compete agst Halloween Storm of 1991. I was a senior in HS and drove my snowmobile with buddies down I-35 past the dome--- and around I-94 and back up around 694 to New Brighton--- it was nuts.   Here are Twin Cities  6 greatest snow events -- ( 1982 I was 9 and remember those back to back gems like it was yday-- jumped off the roof of a two story house with no issues -- snow depth was 37") Pretty cool I was there for the TOP 4.  

GOOD LUCK!!!  

   TOP SIX SNOWSTORMS       *                                      *
*    FOR THE TWIN CITIES      *                                      *
*    -------------------      *                                      *
*                     INCHES  *                                      *
*  1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4  *                                      *
*  2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1  *                                      *
*  3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0...NOTE CORRECTION NEEDED TO //NCDC-LCD//*
*  4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4  *                                      *
*  5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1  *                                      *
*  6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8  *                                      *

[Tom]

4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Im praying for that lull on Wednesday. I will be in Iowa Tuesday so I will miss the first round. But the big dog moves in late Wednesday. I wanna be up here for that so hoping I can race up 35 during the day and get here to the MN home before that moves in. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in my life.

I'm rooting for all of you up there to reel in one of the biggest storms in recent history to cover such a dramatic portion of the upper MW/GL's region.  Holy friggin' smokes, this is really going to be one hellova fun time for you guys up there.

0z Euro...the consistency over the past few days in mind boggling...you don't see that quite often among all the global models...

 

 

 

0z CMCE...

 

0z EPS...

 

[Money]

GEFS continues to sink south and increase totals in the main band (10:1 ratios)

[gosaints]

Reel it harder Money. 

[Money]

5 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Reel it harder Money. 

Gonna be tough with how consistent the models have been lol

how you doing?

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Reel it harder Money. 

Who wouldn't be given his location??  LOL, ya, I'd be trying my hardest to manifest this beast if I was that close to the epicenter.  Man, I really like your area and north into @Madtownplace.

[Money]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Who wouldn't be given his location??  LOL, ya, I'd be trying my hardest to manifest this beast if I was that close to the epicenter.  Man, I really like your area and north into @Madtownplace.

Right below the 21 on the euro map lol. 30-40 mile shift south and would be right in the heart of it. 30 mile shift north and it’s likely a sleet mess

Never seen the models this consistent though 200+ hours out 

[gosaints]

Oh I am being serious.  I am to.

[hawkstwelve]

6 hours ago, james1976 said:

@hawkstwelve is the Euro showing a lull for southern MN during the day Wednesday?? Thank you in advance!

Looks like Wednesday morning will be your best chance to shoot up there. The lowest 6-hr period that I could find ends at Noon on Wednesday, at least per the 00z Euro. Although from Noon-6PM it shows only an inch or so falling at MSP. Then it really starts cranking after 6PM. 06z GFS showed less of a lull in that afternoon slot and it's lowest 6-hr period was also the time slot ending at Noon.

So definitely seems like prior to Noon is your best bet on both models.

 

[Madtown]

well here I am lookin at the modelsgive me a little wobble north as long as I'm invested now

[gosaints]

1 hour ago, Money said:

Gonna be tough with how consistent the models have been lol

how you doing?

Doing solid.  

2 part storm.... Part 1 maybe somewhat locked in.  Part 2 plenty of time to reel...

[Money]

NAM first wave 

[hawkstwelve]

NAM has the first wave so far to the north that even MSP is on the southern edge of it. Yuck.

[hawkstwelve]

NWS FSD's initial stab for totals with just the first wave.

I remember when this was progged to aim right for FSD. Did not have the best trends down the home stretch for this one. Hopefully the proceeding waves don't follow that same pattern.

[Money]

NAM for the second wave as the precip way east. Would be the worst case situation here

[gosaints]

I would recommend giving the NAM about 36 hours.  Not in it's wheelhouse.  

[hawkstwelve]

NBM trends over past three runs. Amounts continue to trend down for FSD while MSP stays right at that 22 inch mark. Lucky.

[gosaints]

With that lead wave tomorrow still to come through the NAM and other meso's are gonna struggle.  

MSP right now looks solid to continue an impressive winter. 

[Bellona]

Still looks like between  highway 3 and 30 for the best ice potential. Though I may get socked with sleet, which is bad enough. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS continues the slight southward shift that started with the 06z run. Keep it coming baby!!

[hawkstwelve]

On the other hand, 12z GEM is so far north that FSD only gets a few inches through midnight Thursday. Big time flop if that happens.

GFS is really the only model that is shifting southward. It seems all the rest are slowly but surely continuing their northward march. Wish there was at least one other model showing the same trends as the GFS. Just don't have much confidence in that model being right when it's all on its own like this.

[Bellona]

Hmm, so GFS tick south and GDPS north a bit. I'll take south shifts but no Sir to any more north. Lol. 

[hawkstwelve]

Further east 12z GEM...

[gimmesnow]

This is slowly slipping away from me. But GFS was the only one that got totals right around here with the last system, but that was within 3 days.

[Money]

Ukie on the other hand..

[hawkstwelve]

Ooooh the 12z UKMET shifted south. 

Not sure if it was just PNW weather weenie folklore or not but rumor has it the UKMET can be an indication of how the next Euro run will go.