Phil Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z Euro shows 15 inches falling at FSD in the 6-hour period ending 6AM Thursday. 15”/6hrs is something you’d typically see in a lake effect band or deformation band in a nor’easter. Impressive to see those rates all the way up there. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 90% chance of 11 inches with a range of 11-17 inches for me. Maybe my father in Ozaukee county WI might get lucky too! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Those "low end" amounts stretching E into the Twin Cities are concerning. Infrastructure -- even for S.MN --- are going to be pressed to the max not neccs with the amounts - but the duration of the event. Removal of snow is basically not going to happen where it needs to be done. One must remember TC metro has population near 3 million-- subs add another million or more--- this is a bigger deal than even Buffalo had few months back. And the snow doesn't melt on the next wind shift like it does out East. infrastructure is not so "structures" -- as it seems- but more like not being able to see at a high traffic intersection because of snow piles --- many accidents due to this in NOV 1991 in the Twin Cities. Been through it before in 1991 and 1982. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 0z EPS...locked from SD/S & C MN and into Wisco as well as N/C Lower MI... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Yet another healthy snowfall heading for the mountains of AZ. My goodness, the ski resorts of loving this years pattern and it doesn't appear its going to stop as we head into MAR. Blessings from mother nature. The winds are going to be blowing! Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023 AZZ004-006>008-011-015>017-038-039-210000- /O.CON.KFGZ.WS.A.0002.230222T0300Z-230223T0600Z/ Kaibab Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau- Yavapai County Mountains-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau- Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains- Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area- Including the cities of Fredonia, Jacob Lake, Grand Canyon Village, Valle, Prescott, Window Rock, Ganado, Flagstaff, Happy Jack, Show Low, Greer, and Sedona 246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023 /246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 12 inches possible, with higher accumulations over the highest peaks. Winds could gust as high as 60 to 70 mph. * WHERE...Areas near Alpine, Buffalo Pass, Doney Park, Flagstaff, Forest Lakes, Fredonia, Ganado, Grand Canyon, Heber- Overgaard, Jacob Lake, North Rim, Pinetop-Lakeside, Prescott, Prescott Valley, Sedona, Seligman, Shonto, Show Low, Valle, Whiteriver, Williams and Window Rock. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. Snow forecast from 8 PM Tuesday to 11 PM Wednesday: Alpine 5 to 9 inches Buffalo Pass 4 to 8 inches Doney Park 5 to 9 inches Flagstaff 6 to 10 inches Forest Lakes 12 to 18 inches Fredonia 1 to 3 inches Ganado 2 to 4 inches Grand Canyon 4 to 6 inches Heber-Overgaard 4 to 8 inches Jacob Lake 4 to 8 inches North Rim 6 to 10 inches Pinetop-Lkside 7 to 11 inches Prescott 1 to 3 inches Prescott Valley 1 to 3 inches Sedona 3 to 5 inches Seligman 2 to 4 inches Shonto 2 to 4 inches Show Low 5 to 9 inches Valle 3 to 5 inches Whiteriver 4 to 8 inches Williams 5 to 9 inches Window Rock 2 to 4 inches 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: Those "low end" amounts stretching E into the Twin Cities are concerning. Infrastructure -- even for S.MN --- are going to be pressed to the max not neccs with the amounts - but the duration of the event. Removal of snow is basically not going to happen where it needs to be done. One must remember TC metro has population near 3 million-- subs add another million or more--- this is a bigger deal than even Buffalo had few months back. And the snow doesn't melt on the next wind shift like it does out East. infrastructure is not so "structures" -- as it seems- but more like not being able to see at a high traffic intersection because of snow piles --- many accidents due to this in NOV 1991 in the Twin Cities. Been through it before in 1991 and 1982. I have given alot of thought to this. I had the opportunity to witness 3 heavy snows in the Mid-Atlantic area having lived in the piedmont at about 1050ft elevation 1983, 1996, 2016 all possibly over 40 inch events! All is paralyzed. In 2016 we went to plow for a cousins landscaping business north of Baltimore and without plowing the streets and roads we couldnt even get to the businesses! All was shut down for days! In fact on the 5th day many popular businesses were still closed, like pharmacies and convenience stores! In 1983 6 hours of snowfall rates of 4 to 5 inches per hour literally left thousands stranded on highways! One friends home was half mile from i-70 and he took in 30 stranded drivers! Most Midwestern folks rarely if ever seen that, except in blizzard conditions in open areas. My company could go to Minn and help but it is quite stressful. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaSnow Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 ….and it’s snowing 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Don’t have snow maps for 6z euro but looks like it bumped up the QPF in some spots 1.25-1.5 across eastern WI. 0z was less than that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 This sounds fun. Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain between 1am and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 NAM with a big jump north with the first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 First wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 The 1st fronto band will be narrower than modeled and a major nowcast. These usually end being 2-3 county wide jack zones. Honestly 12z tomorrow is when I will have any confidence in where that sets up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Wife is working in msp this week. 30 hours to decide if I stay or go.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, gosaints said: Wife is working in msp this week. 30 hours to decide if I stay or go.... Go! Although your area is looking to get pounded too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Go! Although your area is looking to get pounded too. My bet now would be go but the 1st wave is a wildcard to me. Not much wind in the 1st wave so will probably hold out and see where it looks to develop late tomorrow afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Snowing hard currently. Wasn't expecting anything from this clipper. Eyeballing half inch. Doesn't look to last long though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, gosaints said: Wife is working in msp this week. 30 hours to decide if I stay or go.... Tough call because your area looks to get hit really good also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 NAM would be a huge bust for many except MSP and points north.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 NAM whole event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, Money said: NAM would be a huge bust for many except MSP and points north.. Stay the course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 RGEM first wave hits gosaints area pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Money said: RGEM first wave hits gosaints area pretty good The whole thing could definitely bust north of many areas but the NAM is the last model I would trust in this set up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 43 minutes ago, Money said: First wave RGEM first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 RGEM coming in similar to GFS/UKMET/Euro for the whole system 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 RGEM Final Totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Icing looking to be quite significant along the Highway 20 corridor. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just shoveled driveway. 1 inch down from this clipper.nice appetizer. Still snowing too 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Icon also took a south jog with the first wave compared to 6z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Seems to me it would be today's lead wave and where it sets up the battle zone is what the NAM is either getting correct or struggling with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Gfs went even farther south with the first wave compared to previous runs. NAM will either score big or look foolish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 45 minutes ago, Money said: RGEM first wave GFS first wave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Well..Milwaukee gets nearly a foot of snow this run on the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Wow. If someone gets under..... 1. Fronto number 1 2. Fronto number 2 3. The pivot 4. Could be very impressive for the Midwest. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Total QPF 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 GFS fzr 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 That's a gross amount of zr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 CMC came in significantly south with the snow at least on the southern end. Had way too much sleet in previous runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 20, 2023 Report Share Posted February 20, 2023 Gfs has ice further south than most. Sticks me in about 12 hours of nothing but sleet and a little snow on the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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