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11/8 - 11/10 Plains/GL's System


Tom

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The 3rd, in what has been a series of storm systems to open up the month, is poised to lay down a widespread swath of snow across KS and parts of S NE/N MO on Thursday and eventually towards the GL's.  This could end up becoming a surprise system in some places as the models have been trending a little better organized.  While this system is not forecast to be a big one, it'll certainly provide the wintry flavor for many on here that have not seen the snow flakes fly.

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The 3rd, in what has been a series of storm systems to open up the month, is poised to lay down a widespread swath of snow across KS and parts of S NE/N MO on Thursday and eventually towards the GL's.  This could end up becoming a surprise system in some places as the models have been trending a little better organized.  While this system is not forecast to be a big one, it'll certainly provide the wintry flavor for many on here that have not seen the snow flakes fly.

 

Day time event and marginal temps. Looks like it could be little more than a car-topper-slopper here in SMI. LES possibilities over the weekend into next week appears to be the better chance for accumulating snows around SWMI. Interesting that the models now bring the truly cold stuff just in time to blow up an EC storm. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The euro takes the main wave of snow south of my area, but then it has a clipper that lays down a narrow swath of snow nw-se through eastern Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Day time event and marginal temps. Looks like it could be little more than a car-topper-slopper here in SMI. LES possibilities over the weekend into next week appears to be the better chance for accumulating snows around SWMI. Interesting that the models now bring the truly cold stuff just in time to blow up an EC storm. 

I'm really curious to see how the LES potential sets up around the GL's and possibly into N IN later next week.  This weekends set up looks marginal.  The real deal cold hits early next week as the Polar Vortex crashes down across the Lakes.

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The euro takes the main wave of snow south of my area, but then it has a clipper that lays down a narrow swath of snow nw-se through eastern Iowa.

 

Cue's replay of last winter's pattern.  :huh:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This system has potential. If I get a few flakes falling, then, I am a happy camper. Afterall, its still early Nov.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Jaster

 

You should get some good LES next week as the very cold air rushes in ova the warm lakes. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NAM continues to be further north and more robust than most other models for Thursday into Friday.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018110612/078/snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

I wonder if this is where MQT's getting their idea of the clipper merging with the S stream wave? Climo certainly would favor such a track.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR's take from this range on the LES portion of this storm

 

Late Thursday night however moisture ramps up considerably in

advance of a deep upper trough digging our way from the Northern
Plains. A period of lake effect rain/snow looks to be likely from
Friday morning into Saturday. Given 850mb temps centered around
-10C, snow looks to be the dominant precipitation type. Snow
accumulations appear to be likely across Central and Western Lower
Michigan. Too early to nail down amounts at this point, but grassy
areas are likely to turn white, especially at night into the morning
hours when we will be colder.

Periodic bouts of additional lake effect rain/snow (mainly snow)
look likely from the weekend into early next week. A deep upper
trough will be in place with shortwaves rotating through increasing
lake effect precip. The forecast certainly has a winter flavor to it
with colder than normal temperatures and snow in the forecast.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR's take from this range on the LES portion of this storm

There ya go buddy. Get ready. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm.  This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome.

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Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm.  This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome.

 

Think we can get back to this??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm.  This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome.

Yeah the NAM was showing snow down to lake level this morning in many places with temperatures just above freezing.  I'm really hoping that this event can over perform.  In other news, the 12Z GFS shows a snow bomb in Ottawa and montreal with around 20 inches falling in Montreal on the 13th.  Just inane.  

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Yeah the NAM was showing snow down to lake level this morning in many places with temperatures just above freezing.  I'm really hoping that this event can over perform.  In other news, the 12Z GFS shows a snow bomb in Ottawa and montreal with around 20 inches falling in Montreal on the 13th.  Just inane.  

 

My sis-in-law lives downtown Montreal. With that lifestyle tho, they don't have much use for snow-n-cold. Unfortunately, it makes for a long winter at times. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Might not be as wound up from a few days ago, but the idea is still there for a phased storm.

 

This was the map I meant to post. (maybe you knew?)  ;)

 

20181102 ecmwf_z500_mslp_192hr.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My sis-in-law lives downtown Montreal. With that lifestyle tho, they don't have much use for snow-n-cold. Unfortunately, it makes for a long winter at times. 

They do have skiing a couple of hours outside the city, but nonetheless if you're a city dweller you don't enjoy the snow as much that's for sure.  

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There ya go buddy. Get ready. ;)

 

Here's my sign. I mentioned how great the fetch looked:

 

20181106 0z GDPS 120hr snow.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Euro brings light snow into much of eastern Iowa Thursday night, but looks like an inch or less.  Then the 2nd wave on Friday is further south than on the 00z run.  At this point it is looking more and more likely that we will see accumulating snow on Thursday though for much of the sub, for some of us it will be the first accumulating snows.  

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Here's my sign. I mentioned how great the fetch looked:

 

attachicon.gif20181106 0z GDPS 120hr snow.png

Ya looking good buddy. Hopefully you can squeeze out a 3-6inch snowfall outta this storm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here we go for winter 2018-2019, Winter Weather Advisory for Nebraska.  Awesome

 

NWS.png

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
223 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018

...Accumulating Snow Expected Late Wednesday Night and Thursday...

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ060-072-073-082>084-070600-
/O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0015.181108T0600Z-181109T0000Z/
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Dawson-Gosper-Phelps-Furnas-Harlan-
Franklin-
Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center,
Kensington, Codell, Plainville, Stockton, Osborne, Downs,
Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Elwood,
Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City,
Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth
223 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and south central
Nebraska.

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday night to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 
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Here we go for winter 2018-2019, Winter Weather Advisory for Nebraska.  Awesome

 

attachicon.gifNWS.png

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Hastings NE

223 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018

 

...Accumulating Snow Expected Late Wednesday Night and Thursday...

 

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ060-072-073-082>084-070600-

/O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0015.181108T0600Z-181109T0000Z/

Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Dawson-Gosper-Phelps-Furnas-Harlan-

Franklin-

Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center,

Kensington, Codell, Plainville, Stockton, Osborne, Downs,

Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Elwood,

Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City,

Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth

223 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY

NIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

 

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and south central

Nebraska.

 

* WHEN...From midnight Wednesday night to 6 PM CST Thursday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The

hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening

commute.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or

freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery

roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can

be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

Seems kinda early to issue headlines tbh. Did NWS change their guidelines for how far in advance they issue winter products or something? I could see a watch this far out, but a WWA?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Friday clipper from DVN

 

Friday, a more consistent signal for a clipper moving into the area
is expected. This clipper is forecast to be north of H3 jet on the
cyclonic side. It will move across the area during the late
afternoon into the evening on Friday in time for the Friday commute.
Looking at a potential snow squall setup here as llvl CAPE, high RH
in the llvls, negative thetae lapse rates set up with this clipper.
In most setups, the thetae lapse rates would be more negative than
this one. Regardless the presence of CAPE suggests that the short
lived bursts of heavy snow are possible. The 12z GFS is the most
bullish of all models here. The ECMWF has the same signal just
further west in line with where it believe the H5 wave will move.
These forecast parameters will need to be watched by later shifts to
see if they hold up. Overall accumulation with this clipper will
likely be higher than the one in the morning, but still under 2
inches across the area.

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Seems kinda early to issue headlines tbh. Did NWS change their guidelines for how far in advance they issue winter products or something? I could see a watch this far out, but a WWA?

Good question, though here it goes into effect at midnight tomorrow night. Wonder if it has anything to do with the first decent snow event and a heads up to the public, just a guess.

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I'd say you're probably right here. Probably better to be early with this one due to time of year.

Just my 2 cents. I don’t have any evidence, but NWS Hastings has mentioned before in recent years, about the first snow event of a season and how when amounts are on the edge, they play it safe and issue an advisory.

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Love this write-up from Des Moines. I 'bolded' some of my favs but the whole thing is a good read. Possible thundersnow!? It also includes a tidbit regarding the cold for next week but felt it was ok to post in this thread since it covers this system.

If you like winter weather, continue reading, otherwise you may want
to stop here
. The area of high pressure will move across Iowa
Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, mid-level warm
advection
will develop quickly on the back side of the surface high,
leading to increasing clouds and gradual lowering of saturation
and cloud bases through the day. High temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s are expected, however, the
theta-e advection induced
forcing will leading precipitation developing. Once saturation in
the lower levels occurs, surface temperatures should cool into the
the low to mid 30s over southern and possibly central Iowa with
light snow developing. This light snow potential will lift
northeast Thursday night and may have snow accumulations less than
2 inches possible over mainly the southeast half of the forecast
area. An intense PV
anomaly will move into Iowa on Friday from the
northwest. This system will feature the 1.5 PV surface lowering
to near 600
mb and low static stability along with low CAPE and
steepening mid-level lapse rates. This all leads to the potential
for convective snow showers with brief periods of thundersnow not
out of the question. This may result in a quick 1-2 inches of snow
with local higher amounts with the focus currently north of
Interstate 80.
The other potential issue is the
wind gust
potential due to the mixing and the potential convection. Wind
gusts over 30 mph are possible and combined with periods of snow
with visibilities at one half mile or less, may cause a travel
hazard. Will continue to monitor for potential winter weather
headlines. For now, continue to prefer the
GFS solution which has
been very consistent with the track of this feature. Very cold
Friday night with
wind chill values approaching zero over northern
Iowa.


The current forecast for Saturday remains dry but mid level clouds
will increase again cannot discount a few flurries over the state
as weak forcing passes aloft. The
upper level trough will deepen
Sunday night into Monday and will allow very cold air to spill
south into the Midwest. The 850
mb progs of -15C to -20C are
incredibly cold for this time of year
. The current forecast highs
in the 30s may be too high and have too much
climatology and bias
correction included in them and may have to be adjusted into the
20s if trends persist. Another round of light snow will may
accompany the very cold air arrival.

 

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Love this write-up from Des Moines. I 'bolded' some of my favs but the whole thing is a good read. Possible thundersnow!? It also includes a tidbit regarding the cold for next week but felt it was ok to post in this thread since it covers this system.

 

If you like winter weather, continue reading, otherwise you may want

to stop here. The area of high pressure will move across Iowa

Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, mid-level warm advection

will develop quickly on the back side of the surface high,

leading to increasing clouds and gradual lowering of saturation

and cloud bases through the day. High temperatures in the mid to

upper 30s are expected, however, the theta-e advection induced

forcing will leading precipitation developing. Once saturation in

the lower levels occurs, surface temperatures should cool into the

the low to mid 30s over southern and possibly central Iowa with

light snow developing. This light snow potential will lift

northeast Thursday night and may have snow accumulations less than

2 inches possible over mainly the southeast half of the forecast

area. An intense PV anomaly will move into Iowa on Friday from the

northwest. This system will feature the 1.5 PV surface lowering

to near 600 mb and low static stability along with low CAPE and

steepening mid-level lapse rates. This all leads to the potential

for convective snow showers with brief periods of thundersnow not

out of the question. This may result in a quick 1-2 inches of snow

with local higher amounts with the focus currently north of

Interstate 80. The other potential issue is the wind gust

potential due to the mixing and the potential convection. Wind

gusts over 30 mph are possible and combined with periods of snow

with visibilities at one half mile or less, may cause a travel

hazard. Will continue to monitor for potential winter weather

headlines. For now, continue to prefer the GFS solution which has

been very consistent with the track of this feature. Very cold

Friday night with wind chill values approaching zero over northern

Iowa.

 

The current forecast for Saturday remains dry but mid level clouds

will increase again cannot discount a few flurries over the state

as weak forcing passes aloft. The upper level trough will deepen

Sunday night into Monday and will allow very cold air to spill

south into the Midwest. The 850 mb progs of -15C to -20C are

incredibly cold for this time of year. The current forecast highs

in the 30s may be too high and have too much climatology and bias

correction included in them and may have to be adjusted into the

20s if trends persist. Another round of light snow will may

accompany the very cold air arrival.

 

 

Awesome! Sounds like the winter version of our dynamic clipper back on 10/20. Could this be the winter of potent clippers as Tom has alluded to? The 2nd bliz of '67 that brought Chicago to a standstill was indeed this kind of storm. Been a long time since I've experienced something similar. This winter could have it all, and then some.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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