Jump to content

11/16 - 11/17 Clipper System


bud2380

Recommended Posts

If Lincoln even gets measurable snow out of this I'll be surprised. This is a rogue run for the Euro as every previous run of every model (besides GEM) has had dry air winning out. 00Z Euro wasn't trash but has the heavier stuff farther South.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Lincoln even gets measurable snow out of this I'll be surprised. This is a rogue run for the Euro as every previous run of every model (besides GEM) has had dry air winning out. 00Z Euro wasn't trash but has the heavier stuff farther South.

Euro shows the better hit south of I-80.  Looks like a general 1-3".  Not many other models showing this much around my part of Nebraska.  Who knows?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM continues to be the furthest north.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111418/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Thats 4"+ for my area. l'll take it.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well it is legal there now so it wouldn't surprise me!

 

LOL

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM seems to be on its own.

 

The timing looks to be mostly before sunrise, so yet another night snowfall.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The S trend with 00Z GFS/CMC seems now to be an outlier compared to recent 06Z runs. The NAM is hot right now inside 72 hours. It's only Mid-NOV but has/will have snowed appreciably (1-2"+) in all quadrants  outside Central IA in the last 10 days. Not a good signal  ( for C.IA) as I do think this pattern is going to repeat itself throughout the winter.  

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DMX leaning closer to GFS/Euro with 2-3" in N IA and borderline headlines. Although the AFD came out before the 6z GFS which has trended north. Regardless...next week looks above normal and dry so it will melt immediately.

As it should in November lol. Anyways, I’ve got 2” in my point in Hiawatha here. Sounds reasonable based on recent guidance. NAM is still way north and stronger however.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FV3 treats SMI best of the bunch. Others mostly miss or precip fades due to whatever? Thermals, or just a weakening system, Idk

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM still much further north than other models.  The Euro shifted further east and slightly north overnight, but just seems to handle the system differently.  The Euro looks like the snow sags south through the day Saturday where the NAM moves more west to east.  Still pretty significant differences on placement here.  The NAM handled the last system a week ago pretty well though, the Euro was off base, so I'm not ready to discount the NAM.  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111512/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS has the heaviest QPF still into parts of central IA, but surface temps once again limiting accumulations there. 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111512/060/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111512/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...