Jump to content

11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Folks, dust off those shovels and gas up 'em snowblowers, the models are now beginning to converge on the seasons first widespread winter storm of the season across the northern half of our sub.  It's always exciting tracking the first winter storm, esp post Thanksgiving opening the door into the holiday season.  Let's dive in...

 

00z EPS certainly likes N KS/NE/NW IA/MN and into WI....similar to what the 06z GEFS are indicating...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018112006/180/snod.conus.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Stormy
Stormy

Hi everyone.... this is my first time posting on here though I've been lurking on this forum for several years already. It seems I'm to busy to keep up with all the comments so decided I don't have ti

Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

FV3-GFS has been embarrassed badly and decided to withdraw from further competition.

Tom
Tom

Thank God I shoveled last night bc today was a little better. Bottom half was slush/slop and top half was powder. The warm ground didn’t help and the last batch of snow that fell across NE IL droppe

Posted Images

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

For those of us near the Lower GL's, to get any appreciable snow, we need the GFS to continue bombing out the system in the E GL's to provide us with an opportunity for backwash snows.  Given the magnitude of blocking in SE Canada, this is a viable solution and one I'm looking for going forward.  I was surprised to see the 00z Euro come in weaker but that is also a possibility.  Nonetheless, we will have plenty of days ahead to monitor these changes.

 

I'm not to worried about this system cutting NW, in fact, I can see it continue advertising a southern track.  What is causing the snows to fall so far NW, is the CF from the lead system out ahead of it isn't allowing it to press south like you normally would like to see. What this storm needs to do is to strengthen and produce its own cold air quicker to allow for better snows closer to the SLP.

 

Boy, what a nice track though on the 06z GEFS...at this range, these models won't see the storms produce their own cold air so look for these changes down the road.  Knowing how storms have behaved this season, and model behavior, I'd lean colder.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted

I fear there’s just too much warm air with this system to bring a snowstorm in this neck of the woods, but it is nice to have something to look at on the models at least. Hopefully the sign of what’s an active winter.

 

 

The LRC would suggest a slower and more southern track.  The blocking should be strong enough to cause the storm to dig and generate more cold air.  This is one of the storms I picked out to produce at least several inches for me.  Also be on the look out for a bomb to follow about 6 days later.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 Newbie

Stormhunter87

Posted
Posted

I'm actively rooting against this one or for it to trend later. Sorry guys, I need to get back home Sunday!

Boo don't ruin the fun! Lol. I definitely understand that, hate dealing with big weather events when I have to travel. The worst I had was flying back to Omaha from Florida during an early spring Dixie alley tornado outbrake. I don't think I ever let go of the arm rest.

 

Definitely like the constant trend in the models. The warm air has me nervous, but man what a good way to kick this winter into gear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

12z GFS...that's a nice hit for everyone NW of here...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112012/162/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112012/162/snku_acc.us_c.png

GFS swath of snow is weird looking, you would think the path of snow would continue all the way back to NW Kansas but thermals are an issue. Plenty of time for this thing to change, will be a fun week tracking! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

Posted
Posted

From the DVN this morning:

 

“The second system looks to be stronger of the two systems. Guidance shows an extended area of WAA precip looks possible before the main low and wave moves through the area. Wrap around precip around the low looks to be snow. Current guidance has most of the area seeing rain changing into snow later on Sunday night. That said, any changes to the track of the system could lead to significant differences in impacts associated with this system. This system will need to watched. Those planning on traveling Sunday across the upper Midwest may want to start thinking about other options if snow becomes more clear.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Yeah lots of warm air drawing up in front of the system.  The SLP placement is decent for Eastern Iowa typically, but with all the warm air it's not looking good on this run.  That seems to happen more frequently in our area anymore.  GFS has been all over the map with this storm, but good to see it coming back to it again.  I have a feeling it will stay put this time.  Euro has been steady with a storm just all over the place on placement of the snow.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

Posted
Posted

Yeah lots of warm air drawing up in front of the system. The SLP placement is decent for Eastern Iowa typically, but with all the warm air it's not looking good on this run. That seems to happen more frequently in our area anymore. GFS has been all over the map with this storm, but good to see it coming back to it again. I have a feeling it will stay put this time. Euro has been steady with a storm just all over the place on placement of the snow.

Not totally shocked with the warm air this time of year, but with how tame our winters have been lately... you hate to miss out on any potential storm that is sooo close to being a good one. Hopefully this storm either goes further south or finds a way to get some cold air wrapped in faster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

Posted
Posted

Canadian does not tap into any cold air as it heads east. It weakens and stays warm even on the back side. Kind've odd. Blasts NE and then basically turns into all rain.

 

Is the Canadian worth anything anymore? I feel like with the lame winters we’ve had and being a college student, I’ve been so tapped out of tracking weather for a while. It just seems like this model is rarely right and changes it’s mind more than my fiancée trying to decide where she wants to eat.

 

Not doubting this solution, because I think anything is possible right now. Just generally curious on how the models have been doing over the last few years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

Posted
Posted

The FV3-GFS solution is interesting. It looks like the cold air is wrapping around well at Hour 126 with the SLP in N Missouri, but then more warm air gets ejected in by the next frame as the storm starts to slowly weaken.

 

If it held form as it traveled east, it would make for a nice snowfall here after some initial WAA rain.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted

The new GFS has temps rapidly dropping and snow rates of 1-2" per hour from hour 114-120.  Call me skeptical.

 

114

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018112012/114/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

120

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018112012/120/snku_acc.us_c.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted

SLP scoots all the way to Erie, PA on the next frame 24 hours later, so hard to tell until precip maps update what the details are though.  I think Nebraska and Western Iowa into southern MN and WI will fare well though.  I might get some wrap around snow, which would be cool as I'm planning on cutting down my first ever real Christmas tree on Monday.  Would be pretty cool if it was snowing or had just snowed while doing that . 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Hard to tell how that run went without knowing what happened between 120 and 144. I’m guessing probably a little warm here again. Don’t see anything to suggest otherwise.

12z Euro good hit for S NE/N KS/N MO/ SE IA/S WI...a band of 2-8” in NW MO into SE IA/ S WI.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...