gabel23 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Great track for eastern neb and western iowa, just need to transition to snow earlier for us west of the river. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Man some of you are gonna get crushed if this is anywhere close to reality. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 looks jack perfect for ybyLol I like the low to be just a little north of KC for those real intense wrap around snow bands. I still love the amounts though 7-10 based on 00z GFS and icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Canadian with a similar set up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Lol I like the low to be just a little north of KC for those real intense wrap around snow bands. I still love the amounts though 7-10 based on 00z GFS and icon I like it over Georgian Bay, lol. Wanna trade places? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Will be mildly surprised if the EURO doesn't come back north --Â Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 GEFS & GEPS seem to track the SLP in a very similar path. The question is what's going on further up. ULL getting pulled NW where the thermocline sets up. Grats western sub peeps Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.1Â Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = xx.x"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 GEMÂ Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Gut feeling the euro stays put maybe throws some love out east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I like it over Georgian Bay, lol. Wanna trade places?Lol atm no but just dreaming 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I get a LOW PARTY plus a tenth by hour 900 Â Â 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.1Â Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = xx.x"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 LOW Parties are the worst. See 11-12 on how SWMI did low parties proud. Need this thing to go N or trend S. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.1Â Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = xx.x"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 K, might've been premature. By h180 the storm fujiwara's down from Georgian Bay and throws SMI a parting shot of flakes. Been the theme so far, why not go witt it? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 This run of the GFS looks like an improvement. Pretty impressed with the consistency given how far out it is. Makes me think we could still be in for a surprise... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Ukie very similar to GFS at hour 96 with L placement ; but is about 75 miles or so W at 120. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 FV3-GFSÂ https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112100&fh=120 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 This looks pretty wound up on all the models. What are winds....30 or 40 I'm guessing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 This looks pretty wound up on all the models. What are winds....30 or 40 I'm guessing?https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018112100&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=114 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 FV3-GFS looks like it actually takes the heaviest snow SE of Dubuque. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Euro pretty much held serve from 12Z--Â Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 0z EURO is the outlier while most models are further north. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Oz European has des Moines on northern edge. Omaha and Lincoln on extreme northern edge. For the few who live in Ottumwa Iowa...this is YOUR model run. LOLÂ Edit: Actually, the neighbors to my south in Chariton, IA take the jackpot 8+" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Euro really peters it out as you go E and N -- the above map is pretty much what falls for most of this sub forum Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 GFS fv3 agrees more with the euro. Guess it's going to come down the nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Oz European has des Moines on northern edge. Omaha and Lincoln on extreme northern edge. For the few who live in Ottumwa Iowa...this is YOUR model run. LOL Edit: Actually, the neighbors to my south in Chariton, IA take the jackpot 8+"ToastedRAvs- nice to see you back in "winter" mode. Take a closer look at that map. Max is 14" down around Chariton. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 See the trough and associated surface low in the Lakes at 96 hours? It is deeper on the Euro (and FV3 GFS) which is what allows the incoming system to end up on the southern end of model solutions. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 You the have Euro ( a weaker version of the FV3 especially E) pittted agst the GFS and CMC. Its a toss up right now IMO 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Not good runs tonight. Glad this is still 4 days out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Looks like 6z gfs was gonna go way north but the low hits a wall up near IAÂ Northern stream system was faster and north which delayed the colder air a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Wants to go N. See the snow shield depicted. It really doesn't line up well with what it says in 6 hr increments. I don't think many of the models are handling the thernal profiles of this dynamic system correctly. None the less , this is eye candy for lots of IA at Sun AM. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112106&fh=108 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 It seems, reading between the lines, that DMX doesn't like the EURO, but will not come out and say it. The forecast story for the 7 day remains the storms system expectedto arrive Saturday night into Sunday. While there is descentagreement temporally and spatially with the upper level system as itdives southeast across the from Montana into eastern ColoradoSaturday then deepens and lifts northeast into northern Missouri bySunday, there still remains a lot of variables that need to beaddressed. One, it remains a troublesome that there is a lack ofcontinuity with the upper low to the north which will have impactson how this system evolves. It does appear the sub-tropical highbuilding into the southern Gulf may keep this system from dippingmuch further south than currently progged. That said, there remainsmore wiggle room to the north and west, which tends to be the biasfor solutions at this time range. In addition, as previouslymentioned, these deepening lows tend to slow 6-12 hrs from currenttiming this far out. Therefore, can speculate that the surface lowpressure may track a bit farther northwest than currently proggedand be more delayed. This system still has the potential to be asignificant winter storm with wind and snow to the northwest of thesurface low and could include wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Atthis point with low to medium confidence in the exact low track, itwould be hasty to try to release snowfall estimates at this point.The primary message that everyone should be aware of is that theremay be significant travel impacts due to winter weather by Sunday.If that is all not enough good news, the strong cold push is stillon track following this system for early next week. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Always have and always will rely and trust the 0 and 12z model runs more. Unless, in some storms, the NWS release special balloons at 6 and 18z. But they usually reserve that specialized treatment for the more important storms, the nor easters and such that affect the more important people on the east coast!100% agree. When one really looks at the brass tacks of 6Z and 18Z runs and compares them to 00Z / 12Z and what really materlizes - many would go with the upper air runs. Not all- but those that have been doing this for 20+ years , many see more value with upper air , even if the 06Z and 18Z are that much closer. Until the system is onshore and properly sampled , say within 36 -42 hours. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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