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11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm


Tom

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Lol I like the low to be just a little north of KC for those real intense wrap around snow bands. I still love the amounts though 7-10 based on 00z GFS and icon

 

I like it over Georgian Bay, lol. Wanna trade places?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GEFS & GEPS seem to track the SLP in a very similar path. The question is what's going on further up. ULL getting pulled NW where the thermocline sets up. Grats western sub peeps

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I get a LOW PARTY plus a tenth by hour 900 ;)

 

 

GFS Low Party.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOW Parties are the worst. See 11-12 on how SWMI did low parties proud. Need this thing to go N or trend S.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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K, might've been premature. By h180 the storm fujiwara's down from Georgian Bay and throws SMI a parting shot of flakes.

 

Been the theme so far, why not go witt it?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This looks pretty wound up on all the models. What are winds....30 or 40 I'm guessing?

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018112100&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=114

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Oz European has des Moines on northern edge. Omaha and Lincoln on extreme northern edge. For the few who live in Ottumwa Iowa...this is YOUR model run. LOL

 

Edit: Actually, the neighbors to my south in Chariton, IA take the jackpot 8+"

ToastedRAvs- nice to see you back in "winter" mode. Take a closer look at that map. Max is 14" down around Chariton. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Wants to go N. See the snow shield depicted. It really doesn't line up well with what it says in 6 hr increments.  I don't think many of the models are handling the thernal profiles of this dynamic system correctly. None the less , this is eye candy for lots of IA at Sun AM.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112106&fh=108

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It seems, reading between the lines, that DMX doesn't like the EURO, but will not come out and say it.

 

The forecast story for the 7 day remains the storms system expected
to arrive Saturday night into Sunday. While there is descent
agreement temporally and spatially with the
upper level system as it
dives southeast across the from Montana into eastern Colorado
Saturday then deepens and lifts northeast into northern Missouri by
Sunday, there still remains a lot of variables that need to be
addressed. One, it remains a troublesome that there is a lack of
continuity with the upper low to the north which will have impacts
on how this system evolves. It does appear the sub-tropical high
building into the southern Gulf may keep this system from dipping
much further south than currently
progged. That said, there remains
more wiggle room to the north and west, which tends to be the bias
for solutions at this time range. In addition, as previously
mentioned, these
deepening lows tend to slow 6-12 hrs from current
timing this far out. Therefore, can speculate that the surface low
pressure may track a bit farther northwest than currently
progged
and be more delayed. This system still has the potential to be a
significant winter storm with wind and snow to the northwest of the
surface low and could include wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. At
this point with low to medium confidence in the exact low track, it
would be hasty to try to release snowfall estimates at this point.
The primary message that everyone should be aware of is that there
may be significant travel impacts due to winter weather by Sunday.
If that is all not enough good news, the strong cold push is still
on track following this system for early next week.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Always have and always will rely and trust the 0 and 12z model runs more. Unless, in some storms, the NWS release special balloons at 6 and 18z. But they usually reserve that specialized treatment for the more important storms, the nor easters and such that affect the more important people on the east coast!

100% agree. When one really looks at the brass tacks of 6Z and 18Z runs and compares them to 00Z / 12Z and what really materlizes - many would go with the upper air runs. Not all- but those that have been doing this for 20+ years , many see more value with upper air , even if the  06Z and 18Z are that much closer. Until the system is onshore and properly sampled , say within 36 -42 hours.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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