March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[Geos]

Since the other thread is about 1200 posts or 61 pages - I think it's time for a continuation thread for the remaining 2 weeks of the month.

 

Discuss. 

 

The CPC outlook.... The only problem with it, is that it doesn't tell you how much below normal it is. It could be -1° or -6°.

[Tom]

This is the 1st time this season we had a Part II to a monthly discussion.  Glad to see this forum explode this year with new members.  Congrats to everyone who put in the hard work!

[Money]

Yeah, site's doing really well.

 

Geos, you've been calling for above normal temps for awhile.

 

Even if Euro is showing 30-35 degree temps, that would still be a good 10-15 degrees below normal.

 

Last year at this time it was like 83 degrees. 

[tim the weatherman]

Since the other thread is about 1200 posts or 61 pages - I think it's time for a continuation thread for the remaining 2 weeks of the month.

 

Discuss. 

 

The CPC outlook.... The only problem with it, is that it doesn't tell you how much below normal it is. It could be -1° or -6°.

that is true geos that i am thinking that it is not going to get that cold that i am saying that heading to the end of the month we will be in the same weather pattren like we are now that the cpc is wrong on that.

[Tom]

Geo's, the way NOAA operates is they base their forecast on percentages and not actual temp departures.  However, I will say this, if they are forecasting a very high probability of the temps being below normal, we can assume that temps will be below normal.  On top of that, we have seen this before countless times this winter season where NOAA was forecasting a below normal temp regime in the (80-90%) probability range and temps were 20-25 below normal.  The 1st week of March was the last example of this happening.

[Tom]

The24weatherman, so your saying that you believe end of March to be in the same wx pattern we are in NOW???  That basically contradicts what you suggest bc it is friggin' cold outside today for March standards!  If that's the case, then I agree, it will be D**n cold last week of March.

[FV-Mike]

This winter reminds me of how hard it is to break patterns. During the winter of 11-12 the models would show cold/snow at 200 hours out yet in most cases it never came through. I know people are sick of the cold, but below avg temps may linger well into the middle of April.

[FiNsTa]

Yeah, site's doing really well.

 

Geos, you've been calling for above normal temps for awhile.

 

Even if Euro is showing 30-35 degree temps, that would still be a good 10-15 degrees below normal.

 

Last year at this time it was like 83 degrees. 

You mean two years ago, lol

[Tom]

WildWisconsin and myself mentioned during this season at one point comparing how this wx pattern resembled the complete opposite of 2011/12 that stuck around through the entire winter and continued throughout Spring/Summer.  Now, take that knowledge and you can use this information in predicting the wx pattern into the Spring/Summer season this year.  Glad you are seeing the patterns FV-Mike.

[Geos]

Yeah, site's doing really well.

 

Geos, you've been calling for above normal temps for awhile.

 

Even if Euro is showing 30-35 degree temps, that would still be a good 10-15 degrees below normal.

 

Last year at this time it was like 83 degrees. 

 

I've been siding with seasonable at times with below normal at other times.

 

March 20-21st 2 years ago was in the 80s here. Other locations away from the lake racked up more than 2 days in the 80s.

[Geos]

18z NAM puts down 12-18" in north central MN this week.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=069

[james1976]

LRC has been a lock all winter I would say. This pattern won't change too quickly.

[james1976]

Almost 2" of snow last night here. Waterloo got 1.5" and is now only 2.1" from the all-time record.

[Geos]

Almost 2" of snow last night here. Waterloo got 1.5" and is now only 2.1" from the all-time record.

 

Is that the only snow you have now? new?

[tim the weatherman]

according to northeast us weather that there is an artic outbreak coming beginning this sunday that is going to last to wed or thurs of nextweek models are projecting -15 degrees but they do believe that it could be around 5 to 10 derees above zero because of the sun angle.

[tim the weatherman]

The24weatherman, so your saying that you believe end of March to be in the same wx pattern we are in NOW???  That basically contradicts what you suggest bc it is friggin' cold outside today for March standards!  If that's the case, then I agree, it will be D**n cold last week of March.

i agree tom you are right about the visit by the polar vortex that the lobe will be coming down and stay for4 or 5 days before exiting and hopefully for the season.

[tim the weatherman]

just seen on the weather centre that a possible super el nino could be in the works toward winter 2014 2015 season also our winter 2014 2015 might have a huge impact with below normal snowfall and above normal tempratures.

[Geos]

just seen on the weather centre that a possible super el nino could be in the works toward winter 2014 2015 season.

 

That would make for an interesting season with the warm ocean pocket south of Alaska.

[Geos]

CAA must have shut off, temp has not dropped at all since 6pm. Marine air should keep the temp up tonight.

[james1976]

Is that the only snow you have now? new?

pretty much. we were down to mostly snow piles.

[Money]

GFS significantly south again from 18z. Brings 3+ to the GB area. L goes over E WI 

[Money]

GGEM takes the low to Milwaukee, and it has a significant snowstorm for next Thu/Fri. 

 

Tom could you post the maps when they become ava?

 

Thanks.

[Money]

Ukie takes the L to Chicago and is cold enough for snow here.

 

Also has the HR 120 storm through C. IL.

 

GFS is also very cold in the longrange with a 1040 H over N. Wisconsin and temps around 0 on the 27th-28th.

[tim the weatherman]

there is two systems coming this week on the 17 and the 23rd and both are weak by chicago weather center.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

 

[Money]

euro looks like the ukie with the thu/fri system. 

[Money]

euro has 850 mb temps of -10 or lower for 6 straight days in the long-range with -25 850 mb temp in Minny at hr 216.

[Geos]

there is two systems coming this week on the 17 and the 23rd and both are weak by chicago weather center.

 

Both systems, weak and wet.

 

Looks like it's going to be a nice day. Sitting at 20° right now.

[gosaints]

Cold rain

[gosaints]

Then cold and dry how exciting.

[gosaints]

Rgem drops quite a bit of snow here Wednesday morning

[gosaints]

GFS is as boring as it gets

[Geos]

Rgem drops quite a bit of snow here Wednesday morning

 

Actually just north of you.

 

 

At least if the snow cover stays away you can eek out some mild days here and there.

[Money]

GGEM still has that big snowstorm for this thu/fri

 

GFS is warm tho.

[Money]

GFS has high temps of 15-20 degrees for this Sun/Mon followed by below zero temps in some places in Wisconsin. Also has a little clipper system that drops 4-6

[tim the weatherman]

just looked that between this sunday to the 1st of april we will be below normal with the tempratures with 23rd to the 27th being the coldest.

[Money]

Tom, could you post the ggem snowmaps when they're ava?

 

Thanks.

[Tom]

Finally the GFS is correcting colder for this weekend into next week as was expected.  Those fantasy land 60's/70's are a thing of the past and Ol' Man Winter reminds us who is in control this winter.  It's going to be close if ORD can come close to 1st place this winter.  We still have 2 weeks to go.

[Geos]

70s...? I don't think I ever saw those this far north.

 

GFS definitely has some 50s coming after next weekend. 27-30th definitely. Bu that's fantasy land.

 

Getting close to 30° downtown Racine at this hour.

[Money]

70s...? I don't think I ever saw those this far north.

 

GFS definitely has some 50s coming after next weekend.

 

Getting close to 30° downtown Racine at this hour.

 

Yeah for like a day when a storm comes through, then it's back into the low 30s

[tim the weatherman]

i would of say that after nextweek than we will be back to slightly belownomal and than a warm up in the making.

[East Dubzz]

Well, I have a baseball game tomorrow, so don't go telling me it's still winter

[gosaints]

Problem is eastern areas get there cold shots after the storms

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

[Tom]

CFSv2...ouch!

[gosaints]

Ouch around here for sure.  Not seeing the snow chances Chicago needs to break the record however

[Money]

Tom, GGEM shows another big storm for the HR 216 area around Chicago as well. 

[Geos]

Problem is eastern areas get there cold shots after the storms

 

It's the eastern Lakes and New England that will be in this pattern the longest I think. At least out by you, you don't have to content with a giant lake that's in the 30s! haha

[Tom]

Your not seeing them NOW, but they can show up later...still have 2 weeks to go.  Either way you slice it up, its going to be a brutal finish to this month and probably record setting cold.  As for Strat Warming, been following that for weeks and it still does its trick in the month of March no matter if there is a +AO/NAO.  Just look at the warming going on in N.A...

 

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[bainbridgekid]

Greetings from Washington!

 

I'll be visiting family in Chicago (Deerfield and Evanston) from March 25th till April 7th.

 

When I booked my ticket I really didn't consider the chance of snow but it's definitely looking possible.