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March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II


Geos

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About 38° here. Darn wind off the lake. Might be able to get a brief warm wedge later before CAA arrives and winds go SW.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z GGEM...

 

It is showing a weak lower lakes cutter thru N IN next week with lots of moisture (over 1" qpf) but its not that cold this run.  If it can deepen and strengthen, all bets are off and it will get colder.  Let's see how this system evolves.

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I'd like to point out that the methods Tom has been using, I've used myself on my blog, and they've proven to be dead on this winter from not only my viewpoint, but upon asking others what they thought of my accuracy this winter. Sure, we can get caught up in some spring fever or the desire for winter to never end, but I see no fault on Tom's part- his reasoning is valid, and while it may not evolve exactly as was projected, tools such as the LRC or the East Asian correlation have had major success in not only this winter, but last winter and years before that. 

 

Pointing out long rage guidance projections that seem to directly defy what people like Tom are saying is rubbish- everyone here knows the volatility of models, especially beyond 120 hours.

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EURO, GFS still showing a shift at 240 hours.

 

 

11-15 day 

 

10150796_10152251672046760_1873597531_n.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Still only 51F at ORD, 55F in Joliet, 59F in Kankakee...I think 60F at ORD might be to far fetched this late in the day especially with clouds building in along the cold front.  May not hit 60F till the following weekend if trends of a warm up continue.

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Those maps are a big change! 

 

Hit 42° here today.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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If accumulating snow is done until this Fall, at least it ended up being an exact number. 80 total inches of snow is spectacular. Would've loved to get 90" for #1 all time (or even 82.4" for 2nd place), but 3rd place at 80" works wonderfully.

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...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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It's looking good for some snow across Iowa early next week.  The models have been showing heavier snow(2-3" maybe) in southwestern Iowa, but 1-2" is not out of the question around here.  The NAM has shifted the heavier stuff into eastern Iowa this morning, although it's wildly overdone with qpf as usual.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like the euro weeklies flipped for weeks 2 and 3

 

Where can I see those at?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Interesting AFD from des moines. Talking 2-3" monday and temps remaining below normal for the last days of March.

http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html

 

I don't understand the bit about the last days of March.  The models continue to look fairly mild on the 30th and 31st.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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idk either but GFS warms up a lot next weekend and then after that gets a bit cooler. Very active west-east pattern. This is long range so who knows what will happen.

the weather centre has a good article that i was looking that we will have two weeks of warmth coming by the 27th of this month and he did not say any cooldowns in his article and andrew has said that there won't any interruptions with this pattern.

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the weather centre has a good article that i was looking that we will have two weeks of warmth coming by the 27th of this month and he did not say any cooldowns in his article and andrew has said that there won't any interruptions with this pattern.

 

Yeah - I think that's a good prediction to run on right now. He put a lot of thought into what he wrote there.

 

Today is kind of blah! haha

Mostly cloudy and kind of breezy.

Tomorrow definitely looks like the coldest day of the next 7.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I think it is worth noting that the blog post on weather centre states " a possibility of an El Nino". He does a good job a laying out the information but he does not say that this "will" happen

Agreed, but many others have been pointing to an El Niño, which I think is very likely at this point. However, just don't know how strong it will be. Just because there is an El Niño doesn't mean it will have a huge impact.

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What a horrible spring day here in Nebraska. Barely freezing ( 20 degrees below normal) and a stiff Nw breeze too. Tonight we might get close to our record low of 10 and early Monday receive a couple inches of snow. Winter definitely didn't end here on the 16th

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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0z NAM is washing this system out further...

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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A rather strong LES band about to hit E Cook county...DT should get some accumulation from this.

 

LOT indicating 1-2" possible for Cook before it moves east into Lake/Porter county IN.  Pretty remarkable to see 23F temps and LES on March 23rd!  Would be something we see mid-winter in January with 850's -16C!

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Euro shows temps hitting 60's in our area next Monday but with that cutter showing up it brings some significant snows nearby.  2 separate systems...Thu/Fri then next week Tue/Wed.

 

 

I clearly remember this pattern during cycle 2 of the LRC back in late Jan as we head into February when east Asia was anticipating ridging but our area saw troughing in the 6-10 day period..  It will be interesting if the colder pattern wins this time around like it did back in cycle 2.  I'd say with a AO tanking from its current highs, we are in for below normal temps after a brief spike in temps late next weekend.

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Euro shows temps hitting 60's in our area next Monday but with that cutter showing up it brings some significant snows nearby. 2 separate systems...Thu/Fri then next week Tue/Wed.

 

 

I clearly remember this pattern during cycle 2 of the LRC back in late Jan as we head into February when east Asia was anticipating ridging but our area saw troughing in the 6-10 day period.. It will be interesting if the colder pattern wins this time around like it did back in cycle 2. I'd say with a AO tanking from its current highs, we are in for below normal temps after a brief spike in temps late next weekend.

NICE! That's a great looking map! Although part of me is like ugh, I just want it to be warm and stay warm

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