March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[tim the weatherman]

i would of say that after nextweek than we will be back to slightly belownomal and than a warm up in the making.

[East Dubzz]

Well, I have a baseball game tomorrow, so don't go telling me it's still winter

[gosaints]

Problem is eastern areas get there cold shots after the storms

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

[Tom]

CFSv2...ouch!

[gosaints]

Ouch around here for sure.  Not seeing the snow chances Chicago needs to break the record however

[Money]

Tom, GGEM shows another big storm for the HR 216 area around Chicago as well. 

[Geos]

Problem is eastern areas get there cold shots after the storms

 

It's the eastern Lakes and New England that will be in this pattern the longest I think. At least out by you, you don't have to content with a giant lake that's in the 30s! haha

[Tom]

Your not seeing them NOW, but they can show up later...still have 2 weeks to go.  Either way you slice it up, its going to be a brutal finish to this month and probably record setting cold.  As for Strat Warming, been following that for weeks and it still does its trick in the month of March no matter if there is a +AO/NAO.  Just look at the warming going on in N.A...

 

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[bainbridgekid]

Greetings from Washington!

 

I'll be visiting family in Chicago (Deerfield and Evanston) from March 25th till April 7th.

 

When I booked my ticket I really didn't consider the chance of snow but it's definitely looking possible.

[Geos]

Need to get the EPV flux vectors to point poleward to have successful warming over the Arctic regions.

 

[Tom]

Geo's, watch the video JB posted on Wx Bell regarding the Strat Warming.  A Major SSW event is taking place especially at 10mb right over the north pole.

 

12z GGEM...

 

[Tom]

EURO Control thru Day 10 agrees with 6-10"+ of snow from IA/N IL/S WI/IN/MI, thru Day 15 it has well over 12".  The trend is for cold and snow and I'm sure we will all be seeing the white stuff falling from the sky a couple more times before this month is over. 

[gosaints]

Tom is the EURO cold enough for snow around here for the Tuesday night Wednesday system??

[Money]

Hey Tom, how does the EuRO look for thu/fri? I see it has a 1000 mb L just S of DET at HR 120.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

 

[gosaints]

Must be to warm for the thrusday Friday system

[Money]

3-4 meh

 

Its an increase from its 0z run though, right?

[Tom]

S MI gets creamed this run...next weekends system is something to watch.  JB mentioned that the environment is ideal for shortening wave lengths and rapidly intensifying systems.  Something the Euro has been hinting at the past several runs over MI.

[Money]

Im guessing the GGEM strengthens it quicker over the area hence the higher snowfall totals.

 

.4-.6 QPF in S. WI on the euro though isnt bad.

[Tony]

EURO Control thru Day 10 agrees with 6-10"+ of snow from IA/N IL/S WI/IN/MI, thru Day 15 it has well over 12".  The trend is for cold and snow and I'm sure we will all be seeing the white stuff falling from the sky a couple more times before this month is over. 

Long range has had these fantasy setups all winter long only to lose or weaken them as they travel our way so I don'y buy it as of yet. All I see is cold   and plenty of it so hopefully as we head into April we will see some modification but UNFORTUNATELY long range does not agree. I don't mind snow so lets get a whopper to break the record and then get into spring. My son has their season opener this Saturday and it's going to be cold, thats if the fields will be playable. Baseball and cold do not go well together especially sitting in the stands freezing and the players really do not want to be out there.

[Money]

Nice -25 850 mb temps at the end of the run

 

[tim the weatherman]

there is three snowstorms coming for the upper midwest for the next week or so.

[Tony]

CFSv2...ouch!

Tom that is just brutal and crazy!!  January weather in March....welcome to the Ice Age!!

[Tom]

I hear ya Tony, it is long range and things will change and you just never know, it can change in favor of snowstorms rather quickly as well with this type of pattern.  Speaking of the baseball fields, I walked across my lawn yesterday and its still rock solid and very wet from the melting snow.  Next week looks like we will be in the deep freeze.  Just check out the overnight lows on the EURO.

 

 

[Tom]

My only concern is that we may be dealing with SUPRESSION for the last week in March!   What a run on the Euro as for cold.  It has snow falling in OK/KS last week in March.  Rediculous cold on the way for late March standards.

[Tony]

I hear ya Tony, it is long range and things will change and you just never know, it can change in favor of snowstorms rather quickly as well with this type of pattern.  Speaking of the baseball fields, I walked across my lawn yesterday and its still rock solid and very wet from the melting snow.  Next week looks like we will be in the deep freeze.  Just check out the overnight lows on the EURO.

I guess the bright side, if there is one, is that we are not below zero(N. IL) on those Euro maps.....so far!

[Money]

Below zero temps in late March has to be some sort of record, right? 

 

Heck, opening day would be just 3 days from that point.

[Tony]

My only concern is that we may be dealing with SUPRESSION for the last week in March!   What a run on the Euro as for cold.  It has snow falling in OK/KS last week in March.  Rediculous cold on the way for late March standards.

You would think that a supression would be hard pressed for our area in the middle/end of March but not this year. The HP's just have too powerful so areas around I70 have really been the benefactors of this winter as well as the east coast.

[tim the weatherman]

I hear ya Tony, it is long range and things will change and you just never know, it can change in favor of snowstorms rather quickly as well with this type of pattern.  Speaking of the baseball fields, I walked across my lawn yesterday and its still rock solid and very wet from the melting snow.  Next week looks like we will be in the deep freeze.  Just check out the overnight lows on the EURO.

just found out that the chicago cubs opening home game is in two weeks from this thursday but this that might have a huge impack on opening day.

[Tom]

Now, let me ask everyone, is this a Spring weather pattern???  At the end of the day, this is still a Winter Pattern in late March.  Spring is not around the corner.  Good luck seeing Tulips popping up this month, most likely sometime end of April.  If the extreme cold comes without a snow cover, they will probably freeze and may not come out this Spring which is unheard of.  Our growing season/farmers may have big problems in April if the below normal regime continues.

[tim the weatherman]

Now, let me ask everyone, is this a Spring weather pattern???  At the end of the day, this is still a Winter Pattern in late March.  Spring is not around the corner.  Good luck seeing Tulips popping up this month, most likely sometime end of April.  If the extreme cold comes without a snow cover, they will probably freeze and may not come out this Spring which is unheard of.  Our growing season/farmers may have big problems in April if the below normal regime continues.

i agree tom that the only reason we are stuck in this pattren is have to do with the great lakes and with the deep snowpack across canada and the polar vortex over eastren canada another thing have to do with northren pacific ocean with the blocking.

[Tom]

I agree Money, those temps are likely to be record setting cold.  Like I have been saying, if you understand the pattern and do some research you can predict forecasts weeks in advance when some ppl thought I was crazy and imagining fantasy land forecasts.  I know you weren't seeing a warm pattern to close out this month.

[Tony]

All I can say is this is not a "normal" pattern. Last year March was cold but I believe that was because of a 2nd half winter which carried into spring. A normal spring around here I would think is temps in the 40's to 50's with lows in the 30's and it can be rainy. A couple years back when we had 80's to start March and carry into summer was very unusual as is this pattern we are in. I guess what I am trying to say is that we might be in this pattern for a few years to come where it will either be winter or summer with no spring to be found.

[Tom]

Tony, if we can lay down a fresh snow cover, those subzero lows may creep even farther south.  Probably hard for ORD to go subzero, but certainly possible in the suburban areas.  Something to keep and eye on.

[tim the weatherman]

I agree Money, those temps are likely to be record setting cold.  Like I have been saying, if you understand the pattern and do some research you can predict forecasts weeks in advance when some ppl thought I was crazy and imagining fantasy land forecasts.  I know you weren't seeing a warm pattern to close out this month.

i am thinking towards the 10th of april is when we will be out of this pattren.

[Tony]

Tony, if we can lay down a fresh snow cover, those subzero lows may creep even farther south.  Probably hard for ORD to go subzero, but certainly possible in the suburban areas.  Something to keep and eye on.

Tom, I can definitely see that happening. It sure seemed like it last night as it was brutally cold.

[Tony]

i am thinking towards the 10th of april is when we will be out of this pattren.

Gut feeling??

[Tom]

Now CPC is going with 90% probability that the Great Lakes/Northeast will see below normal temps...looks very familiar to what the CPC had outlooked in late Feb for early March.  What were the departures back then...20-30F below normal!  I smell a repeat performance in the making.  Call me crazy, but this is a hell of a winter pattern to witness.  This winter pattern should be taught in meteorology schools for decades to come bc its something we probably won't witness in a very long time.  This winter season may total 5 months if it hangs on till mid April.

[Madtown]

This is getting a little ridiculous